Every now and then, I like to take a step back to look at the ever-changing landscape in the points & miles world. In early May, Nick and I recorded a podcast where we detailed Transferable Points Changing Fortunes. There, we explained why Amex, Citi, and Chase points were trending down while Bilt, Rove, and Wells Fargo points were trending up. At the time, I meant to post a companion piece with the same information for the blog, but I didn’t follow through. Now, less than two months later, some of those trends have flipped. Here’s my up-to-date take on transferable points changing fortunes…
American Express: Up
The biggest reason that Amex Membership Rewards points are trending up is that Amex has added a valuable new transfer partner: LHW (Leading Hotels of the World). The transfer ratio is 1,000 Amex points to 250 Leaders Club points. That sounds bad, but when you consider that Leaders Club points are often worth 8 cents per point compared to cash rates, that’s 2 cents per Amex point. That’s very good! One good thing about LHW is that you get perks like free breakfast simply by joining its Leaders Club rewards program. The bad things are that they have relatively few properties, not all LHW properties are bookable with points, and taxes & fees are sometimes (but not always) charged on award stays. I spot-checked a number of LHW properties in the U.S. and Europe and compared pre-tax cash rates to point rates. In my relatively small sample, I found point values varied from 6.8 to 8.5 cents per point, with the majority landing at exactly 8 cents per point. Even at the lowest per-point rate (6.8 cents), Amex would deliver 1.7 cents per point value. Not bad!
Another reason Amex is trending up, through no fault of its own, is the growing value of Delta SkyMiles (Whaaaaat?). Amex is the only transferable points program that transfers to Delta. And Delta has been on a roll lately, offering some incredible deals such as round-trip economy to Australia for 25K miles and one-way Delta One business class to Europe for 97K miles. Thrifty Traveler offers up many more examples and argues that Delta has risen to the top (or… near top) thanks to a plethora of deals.
What’s changed with Amex since the May 8th podcast? In the podcast, we argued that Amex was trending down since the frequency of transfer bonuses had dwindled. Since then, though, there have been 5 more transfer bonuses. Plus, transfers to LHW hadn’t yet happened, and Delta hadn’t yet sprung some of its most lucrative recent deals.
Bilt: Up
Bilt has long offered the single best collection of transfer partners. Until recently, though, it was difficult for those without huge rent payments to earn many Bilt points. That changed with Rakuten and Bilt 2.0. Bilt’s partnership with Rakuten makes it possible to earn lots of Bilt points from online shopping and shopping portal referrals (but you do need Bilt elite status to get full value from this partnership). An even bigger change was the introduction of Bilt 2.0. Sure, the transition was a mess, but Bilt’s new card lineup now offers many ways to earn many points: decent signup bonuses, the ability to earn points through both rent & mortgages (and you can pay those things for others), point-accelerators, and more.
What’s changed with Bilt since the May 8th podcast?
- Atmos more valuable: Bilt is the only program that offers 1-to-1 transfers to Alaska Atmos, so Atmos points become more valuable; Bilt points do too. And I’d argue that Atmos points have become a bit more valuable now that it’s possible to use them to book widely available Philippine Airlines flights.
- Hyatt 1-to-1 more valuable: Since the podcast aired, Chase dropped its standard transfer rate to Hyatt to 4:3. Only Sapphire Reserve cardholders will continue to get 1-to-1 transfers from Chase to Hyatt. By maintaining the 1-to-1 ratio, Bilt indirectly gets more valuable.
Rove: Up
Rove keeps adding valuable new transfer partners! I’d argue that Rove’s transfer partner line-up is second only to Bilt’s. In addition to all of the usual suspects (Avios, Aeroplan, Flying Blue, Virgin Atlantic), Rove offers a number of unique transfer options, including (but not limited to) Frontier, SAS, Lufthansa Miles & More, and Air India Maharaja Club. Plus, only Rove and Bilt offer Japan Airlines as a 1-to-1 transfer partner. Rove also allows free point sharing. That’s a valuable feature that both Citi and Wells Fargo dropped recently.
What’s changed with Rove since the May 8th podcast? Rove continued its upward trend by adding both Frontier & Qantas as new transfer partners.
Wells Fargo: Slightly Down
In April, Wells Fargo Rewards were trending up thanks to the addition of Wyndham as a 1-to-2 transfer partner and Cathay Pacific as a 1-to-1 transfer partner. But then, in June, Wells Fargo announced the end of point sharing and discontinued the Attune card (which offered a broad array of 4x earning categories). Overall, I’d say the net result is that Wells Fargo is trending down.
What’s changed with Wells Fargo since the May 8th podcast? Both the announced end of point sharing & the discontinuation of the Attune card happened after the podcast where we said that Wells Fargo was trending slightly up.
Chase: Way Down
Chase did serious damage to the value of Ultimate Rewards points by moving to a set 1 cent-per-point value for points redeemed through the Chase Travel portal. They made it sound good by offering up to 2x Points Boosts, but then proceeded to reduce many of those boosts. We’ve now seen boosts as pathetically low as 1.15. More recently, Chase announced that only those with certain cards (Sapphire Reserve® or Sapphire Reserve for Business℠) would be able to transfer to Hyatt 1-to-1. For everyone else, the ratio will drop to 4:3. Combined with Hyatt’s recent devaluation, this amounts to a big loss in point value.
What’s changed with Chase since the May 8th podcast? Chase furthered its downward trend by announcing the 4:3 transfer ratio to Hyatt.
Citi: Way Down
A year ago, I would have argued that Citi ThankYou Rewards was one of the best transferable points programs. At that time, they had just added American Airlines as a 1-to-1 transfer partner, and they still offered 1-to-2 transfers to Choice, and 1-to-4 (four!) transfers to Preferred Hotels. Today, points still transfer 1-to-1 to AA, but transfers to Choice and Peferred Hotels are down to 1-to-1.5 and 1-to-2, respectively. Those are no longer compelling rates. To rub salt in our wounds, Citi also discontinued point sharing.
What’s changed with Citi since the May 8th podcast? Nothing that I can think of.
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Regarding Bilt and Alaska Atmos – Why isn’t anyone reporting the devaluations with Atmos??? For example – in May, I booked ORF – MCO in November for 7.5k Atmos ( flying AA)—- I wanted to change my date by one day – and saw increased pricing. – I went back and looked at my original flight- same flights, same day- and it is now 12.5k Atmos miles. That is a huge devaluation! If this route has gone up – certainly others have?
Yeah, Citi really shot themselves in the foot. Though it’s mollified the loss of the custom cash. When I hemmed and hawed over applying for the custom last minute (I didn’t), now I’m like “meh” no big loss.
Using this information. How would you value get 10 pts/$ with the Paze promo.
I am not sure why we count Rove into this mix at all – it’s not like I could get credit cards and earn my points. It’s so hard to shop through Rove to accumulate a meaningful number of points – unless you pay for hotels that happen to have a high points accelerator, but whenever I checked they were not anywhere I wanted to stay… I would list them last with a caveat.
On transfer partners, BILT is still a winner, even though the loss of American Airlines, due to Citi’s push for exclusivity is a warning; if Amex, BofA, or Chase decide to pull the same demands, and BILT were to lose Alaska, Hyatt, and/or United, that would get concerning and problematic fast. I’m enjoying the Alaska Summit angle for rent, but, if that, too, ends, it would be a major loss. Just saying, so far so good, but need to ‘prepare for the worst, and hope for the best, as is tradition in this ‘hobby.’
did you just comment about bilt and not mention the lack of bilt cash opportunities for blade and blacklane? youre losing your fastball 1990
I’d argue similar, but for different reasons:
1) Amex – still has NLL offers so you can still easily obtain MR points currencies. Given the 4 cards (Gold/Plat), easily 600k without using NLL offers.
2) Chase – way down. With Lifetime language and Ink restrictions, you’re now very limited. In theory 2 Personal cards for what, 200,000 points total (and the CSR has a way too hefty AF for only 100k points, IMO). Then there’s the BUSINESS CSR, and you could have CIP and then one of the no AF Inks. Theoretical lifetime total is about: 600,000 UR. So far only seen one, maybe 2 DP on DoC with anyone being able to get another CSP/CSR since introduction of new language. Not to mention no more Emirates.
3) Citi – sorta. The removal of ability to pool points, even among family members is not good. Further, it’s pooling among the different cards is terrible as well (I believe those combining/pooling also have a time restriction). Of course, Amex has no such ability and wonder how long until Chase follows suit.
incorrect on Citi- no time restriction for pooling between accounts belonging to the same person
Yeah Delta points might be gaining a little value lately BUT it was such a low bar to begin with the only direction to go was up.
I agree the value of Chase points is way down, but I don’t agree that’s the case with Citi points, at least not until AA devalues its currency further. With card issuers print more and more their currencies, devaluations are inevitable though.
What about capital one?
The unmentioned ones are unchanged
And, Chase dropped Emirates as a transfer partner.
And, Chase has stopped the Ink train.
And, Chase has imposed a lifetime rule.
Lately I have been using these programs for unique or uniqish partners like Citi only for AA transfers and Chase only for Hyatt etc. I’ve yet to jump on the Bilt train yet but I am leading that direction.
Greg please vote Abdul El Sayed in Michigan. Haley Stevens has nothing to offer voters with her 60 million in pac money.
Chase also lowered the PYB rate on the Sapphire Reserve to 1.2cpp.
I guess the real question then becomes: What do all these transferable points look like 2 months from now? Next Year?
Sometimes your favorite points get better. Sometimes they get worse. I’d love to see a theoretical tracker following valuation trends, which of course, would be entirely subjective.
I speculate that a good strategy may be to hold onto transferable points when they trend down. When they start trending up again, look for emerging opportunities. This is analogous to holding onto hotel points and cherry picking stays instead of simply earning and burning. Ok. So perhaps not the perfect analogy, but kinda sorta..ish?.
I would also add to it that Citi also discontinued the Citi Custom Cash since the last evaluation.