In a world of devaluations, should we still hoard? [Week in Review]

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This week saw a couple of big devaluations to LifeMiles and Qatar Airways, and yet Greg’s advice is still to hoard and charry pick. Is he right? Read on for more on the devals as well as the deals you can still get from Virgin points, whether you should spend toward Hyatt’s Milestone rewards and a lot more.

a statue of a man holding his head

This week on the Frequent Miler blog…

LifeMiles has increased some award costs, reduced others (45k business class to UK & Ireland)

LifeMiles devaluation revaluation

I’m as disappointed as anyone to see an Avianca LifeMiles devaluation. I particularly hate it when programs make unannounced devaluations as that in particular seems unnecessarily customer-unfriendly. The big hit here is to first class redemptions, although realistically those are so hard to bag for most people (what with the way that Lufthansa only releases seats ~3 days in advance and ANA even less often) that it mostly stinks on paper. In practice, the changes weren’t terribly painful for my own redemption patterns, especially given that I’m now subscribing to LifeMiles+ for the 10% rebate. I would have loved to pay fewer miles and still get a 10% rebate, but the truth is that I can’t even remember the last time that Avianca significantly changed pricing on international awards, so I think this was probably due for a while.

Another major devaluation, this time using Qatar Avios to book American & Alaska

Qatar Airways award devaluation American Airlines Alaska Airlines

Unfortunately, Avianca LifeMiles wasn’t the only entity to offer an unannounced devaluation this week. Qatar Airways has significantly devalued awards on American Airlines and Alaska. This one is quite a hit to those who have been able to take advantage of excellent pricing on short flights, particularly in domestic first class. These redemptions hadn’t lined up with my needs, but given how few opportunities there are these days to get great value domestically, this one stings. That said, with frequent transfer bonuses, Qatar Avios might still be your best option in some situations.

The earn and burn fallacy. Shall we give hoarding and cherry picking a try instead?

Cherry blossom Japan

It’s kind of ironic that Greg republished this post during a week in which we saw unannounced devaluations. After all, anyone hoarding LifeMiles or Qatar Avios may no longer have have the sweet cherries they anticipated picking. However, if that was your first thought in light of the headline, then you need to read this post for a reminder that spending all your money now because prices will increase is poor advice — and the same can be said (at least to some extent) with miles and points. I’ve been very lucky to be positioned to take advantage of great deals when I’ve found them — and if I’ve learned anything over the last decade, it’s that another deal is always around the corner.

Podcast: Best Uses for Virgin Points | Frequent Miler on the Air Ep268 | 8-16-24

Frequent Miler on the Air Ep268

Virgin Points was a perfect topic of conversation in this week of devaluation in part because it’s a great demonstration of the fact that even when programs devalue, there are still often bright spots for those who can accept what’s been lost and move on to focusing on what’s available. We’ll no longer be using Virgin Points to fly Delta across the pond, but both Greg and I still have certain sweet spots on our radar.

Selecting seats on a complicated Aeroplan booking

Speaking of great awards, I am in the midst of a stopover on an Aeroplan booking that will take me to several countries. In fact, I’m typing this post from a comfortable beach lounger in Mauritius. Unfortunately, my seat selection for the flight here left a little more to be desired since I had forgotten to select seats on my Air Mauritius flight from Paris to Mauritius. That led to some trial and error in figuring out how to select seats on my next Air Mauritius flight and the Singapore Airlines and United flights to follow it.

Best credit card offers with low spend requirements

Best offers for low spenders

If all of the above seems completely irrelevant to you because you think you just don’t have enough spend to earn a significant number of miles, you’ll want to check out this post about the best credit card offers for low spenders. Believe it or not, it is possible to amass a decent chunk of miles and points even without huge spend.

Hyatt Milestone Spending. What’s my X?

Greg writes a fascinating post about Hyatt Milestone spending and what that means for the return on spend if you’re using a credit card to generate elite nights. I have a lot of thoughts about this — so many that I can’t fit them here, so you’re going to have to hold on a few days for a post from me in response to this.

MSC Armonia Adriatic Sea Cruise: Bottom Line Review

If you’d been wondering where I was from last week into early this week, I was on vacation and cruising the Adriatic Sea on my latest “free” MSC cruise. This was really a cruise from the previous elite year thanks to Ocean Prime status. I had something different scheduled in April, but MSC cancelled that cruise and allowed me to book one in August even though my Ocean Prime status expired in June. This post mostly focuses on the cruise experience, which was a mixed bag: the Diamond service and food were both surprisingly good; the ship itself was kind of boring (though we’d expected that) and the entertainment was surprisingly poor. But none of that is really relevant: we picked this cruise for its port stops and they were awesome. I’m kind of lukewarm on cruising the Caribbean, but after 3 European cruises, I am really becoming a fan of cruising around Europe for the opportunity to discover destinations that probably never would have made our list otherwise.

Podcast: Chris Hutchins’ favorite life hacks | Coffee Break Ep22 | 8-13-24

Chris Hutchins' Favorite Life Hacks

Speaking of lists, on this week’s Coffee Break, we had Chris Hutchins (of All the Hacks) on to discuss some of his favorite ways to maximize in a variety of arenas. Both Greg and I have been guests on his show and it was great to get a chance to share some of the things he’s learned in his quest to save money, increase time, and enjoy life.

Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card Review (2024)

a man holding up a credit card

The Venture X card is a workhorse that probably makes sense in a lot of wallets as an “everywhere else” card that seems expensive on the surface but easily pencils out to be worth more than its price tag. Slight “devaluations” to benefits have dropped the value slightly, but I think this one is still a very easy win for many people.

U.S. Bank Altitude Reserve Credit Card Review (2024)

a wallet with a card in it

While I think that the Venture X is probably a more exciting “everywhere else” card for many, the US Bank Altitude Reserve has more or less been my daily driver for the past few weeks as I traveled around Europe and now in Mauritius. Just this morning, I stopped at a small market and a pharmacy in a small town in Mauritius and I was able to easily tap to pay with my phone and earn 3x Altitude Reserve points, which I’ll eventually use at 1.5c per point for a return of 4.5% back. I’ve also been using my Savor One a bit to test places where it may or may not earn a grocery or “entertainment” bonus abroad, but if I weren’t somehow who writes about this stuff, I’d probably have a hard time choosing a gamble at 3x Capital One versus a known ~4.5% back with the Altitude Reserve. I think this is the card that has the great difference between people who should consider it and people who have it.

Spirit Ridge Resort in Osoyoos, Canada: Bottom Line Review (Hyatt Unbound Collection)

Spirit Ridge Resort in Osoyoos, Canada Bottom Line Review (Hyatt Unbound Collection)

When Stephen mentioned having reviewed this property, I’d neither heard of it nor Osoyoos, Canada, so I didn’t immediately expect that it would be of interest to me. Then I read the review and I’m suddenly really intrigued. A one bedroom condo with a full kitchen and washer/dryer along with a pool with a water slide and an on-site winery with a side of Northern Lights sighting from 12K points per night? This one just went on my list.


That’s it for this week at Frequent Miler. Keep an eye out for this week’s last chance deals.

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NEIL

In addition to devaluation, there has been a massive uptick in point earning inflation. It’s not uncommon to see 200-300k point subs. Huge referral bonus. Sweetened upgrade offers. Increased surcharges is a killer (looking at you VA/Delta) but Lifemiles increased rates should almost be expected.

Nff

Deleted my comment as i do not see fuel surcharges now on VA redemptions on KLM-AF

Last edited 1 month ago by Nff
Lee

Greg is right about hoarding.

The person’s choice is to 1) convert the point to 1 cent and consume that 1 cent now or 2) save the point and use it for a 2-cent redemption in the future.

Let’s say that cash prices increase with the rate of inflation, point prices parallel cash prices over the long run, and the rate of inflation is 3 percent per year.

The question becomes: When does the present value of the point (consumed in the future) equal 1 cent (consumed today)? The answer is 25 years.

But, what if a person converted the point to 1 cent and invested it in (say) an S&P 500 Index fund? When would break-even occur? Assuming historically average returns, the answer is 8 years.

So, if someone hoards points and will likely consume a point within 8 years of earning that point, the person will be ahead of the non-hoarder.

Again, Greg is right.

Those who argue for earn and burn solely due to the devaluation issue are wrong.

Newbies, take note.