Now that the new merged Marriott / SPG / Ritz award pricing has been revealed, I’m working on crunching the numbers. This is a work in-progress. Please re-visit often and ask questions below.
Care to help analyze the data?
Here’s a downloadable Excel spreadsheet. Let me know what you find! Note: you may have to wait quite a while before the download button appears.
LIVE UPDATES FOLLOW
Summary of Findings
- On average, award pricing stays about the same when comparing current pricing to early 2019 pricing.
- Top Tier SPG properties will be cheaper under the new program (as expected)
- Top Tier Marriott properties will be more expensive under the new program (as expected)
- Only 2 current Category 9 Marriotts are going down in price! (Fairfield Inn & Suites Ocean City, and Residence Inn Ocean City)
- 1 Category 9 Marriott is going all the way up to category 8 (Domes of Elounda, Autograph Collection). Book this one before August!
- Category 1-5 Certificates:
- Very few Marriott category 1-5 hotels are going up in price above 25K in August (only 5!). This means that your category 1-5 certificates will retain their value.
- 4 Ritz properties will be bookable with these certificates starting in August
- 548 Marriott properties will drop down to 25K points per night and will then be bookable with these certificates
Is the new program really cheaper?
Marriott says “Nearly 70 percent of all participating hotels can be redeemed for the same or fewer points. (52 percent of hotels will move to a lower redemption rate and only 31 percent will go higher.)”
True, the data agrees:
| Award Price | # Hotels | % |
| Higher | 2187 | 31.86% |
| Lower | 3533 | 51.47% |
| Same | 1144 | 16.67% |
But how do the average award prices compare? When we average the award prices across hotels we find that the award prices remain about the same overall:
| Average of Current Points Required | Average of New Points Required | |
| Marriott | 22,077 | 21,123 |
| Ritz | 48,654 | 51,635 |
| SPG | 29,870 | 29,499 |
As you can see above, when award prices are averaged across all hotels, they stay about the same as before. This does not take into account peak and off-peak pricing, nor does it take into account the temporary lower top tier pricing from August to early 2019.
Hotels to book now with your category 1-5 certificates
Many readers may have free night certificates from their Marriott credit cards or from MegaBonus promotions. In August, we expect those certificates to be converted into new points-based certificates. When that happens, those certificates can be used to book any hotel that costs 25K points or less including SPG and Ritz hotels. So, let’s take a look at whether it makes sense to use the certificate right away or to wait until August to make your booking…
Currently there are 3,704 Marriott hotels that can be booked with these certificates. Only a handful will increase in price in August to no longer be bookable. So, if you want to book any of these with a certificate, do so before August:
| Hotel Name | Points Required Today | Points Required August |
| Marriott’s Villas at Doral | 25,000 | 35,000 |
| Residence Inn Temecula Murrieta | 25,000 | 35,000 |
| Paragraph Resort & Spa Shekvetili, Autograph Collection | 25,000 | 35,000 |
| Eugenia de Montijo, Autograph Collection | 25,000 | 35,000 |
| Calgary Airport Marriott In-Terminal Hotel | 25,000 | 35,000 |
| JW Marriott Hotel New Delhi Aerocity | 25,000 | 35,000 |
Book the above hotels with your free night certificates before August.
Consider waiting until August to book your category 1-5 certificate…
Marriott Category 1-5 certificates in August will be converted to certificates that can be used to book hotels costing up to 25K points. This means that we’ll be able to use the certificates at SPG properties, Ritz, and Marriott.
| Hotel Name | # Hotels that will cost 25K or less as of August |
| Marriott | 4,246 (Up from 3,704) |
| Ritz | 4 |
| SPG | 965 |
| Grand Total | 5,215 |
Here are the counts of hotels that are currently more than 25K but will be 25K or less as of August:
| Hotel Name | # Hotels currently more than 25K that will be 25K or less in August |
| Marriott | 548 |
| Ritz | 4 |
| SPG | 273 |
| Grand Total | 825 |
Here are the Ritz properties that become available in August at 25K or less:
| Hotel Name | Points Required Today | Points Required August |
| The Ritz-Carlton, Tianjin | 30,000 | 25,000 |
| The Ritz-Carlton, Haikou | 30,000 | 25,000 |
| The Ritz-Carlton, Almaty | 30,000 | 25,000 |
| The Ritz-Carlton, Chengdu | 30,000 | 25,000 |
On the SPG side, there are way too many to list. Here are the ones that currently cost 36K, but are dropping down to 25K:
| Hotel Name | Points Required Today | Points Required August |
| Four Points by Sheraton French Quarter | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Sheraton Gran Canaria Salobre Golf Resort | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Four Points by Sheraton New York Downtown | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Aloft Austin Downtown | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Sheraton Riyadh Hotel & Towers | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Aloft Chicago City Center | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Kuwait | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Aloft Harlem | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Sihlcity – Zurich | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Aloft Hillsboro-Beaverton | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Sheraton Grand Doha Resort & Convention Hotel | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Aloft Manhattan Downtown – Financial District | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Element Vancouver Metrotown | 36,000 | 25,000 |
| Le Méridien Stuttgart | 36,000 | 25,000 |
And on the Marriott side, there are over 500 hotels that were previously over 25K that will now be bookable!
35K Certificates
Going forward, the mainstream Marriott and SPG credit cards will offer 35K certificates each year upon renewal. Marriott says that “6,300 hotels can be redeemed for just 35,000 points or lower.” I found the real number to be 6,341. Of those, 1,126 hotels will be exactly 35,000 points standard. Let’s break those down:
| 35K Hotels | |
| Marriott | 675 |
| Ritz | 27 |
| SPG | 424 |
That’s pretty good. Of those, quite a few are in the US:
| Hotel Name | 35K Hotels |
| Marriott | 507 |
| Ritz | 5 |
| SPG | 176 |
It appears that there will be a lot of deals to be had with those 35K certificates. Let’s drill down on some of the luxury brands in the US:
- Ritz:
- The Ritz-Carlton Coconut Grove, Miami, The Ritz-Carlton New York, Westchester
- The Ritz-Carlton, Cleveland
- The Ritz-Carlton, Dove Mountain
- The Ritz-Carlton, Tysons Corner
- St. Regis: None in the US
- Autograph Collection: 53 in the US!
- Gaylord:
- Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center
- Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center
- Gaylord Palms Resort & Convention Center
- Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center
- Gaylord Texan Resort & Convention Center
- Tribute Portfolio:
- Hotel Colonnade Coral Gables, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel
- La Posada de Santa Fe, A Tribute Portfolio Resort & Spa
- Magnolia Hotel St. Louis, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel
- SLS Las Vegas, a Tribute Portfolio Resort
- The Alida, Savannah, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel
- The Dalmar, Fort Lauderdale, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel
- The Riviera Palm Springs, a Tribute Portfolio Resort
This is very encouraging! There are clearly lots of great hotels where we can spend those 35K certificates in the future!
50K Certificates
Going forward, the SPG Luxury card (and probably the next generation Ritz card) will offer 50K certificates each year. To maximize value, you may want to pick hotels that cost exactly 50K points. Here are the numbers:
| By Hotel Chain | 50K hotels |
| Marriott | 171 |
| Ritz | 33 |
| SPG | 108 |
And restricting to US only:
| Hotel Name | 50K hotels |
| Marriott | 118 |
| Ritz | 16 |
| SPG | 53 |
And here are the US-only counts for some of the high end brands:
| Hotel Name | 50K hotels |
| Autograph Collection | 24 |
| JW Marriott | 10 |
| Le Meridien | 3 |
| Luxury Collection | 6 |
| Ritz-Carlton | 16 |
| St. Regis | 1 |
| Tribute Portfolio | 3 |
| VISTA | 9 |
I’ve restricted counts in the US only because in the past it has been hard to find aspirational hotels to use restrictive certificates with in the US. That doesn’t appear to be much of a problem going forward.
Hotels to book starting in August
Here are the hotels that will cost 20K or 24K fewer points per night if booked in August rather than today:
| Hotel Name | Points Required Today | Points Required August | Difference |
| The St. Regis Astana | 60,000 | 35,000 | -25,000 |
| The St. Regis Florence | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| 11 Howard, New York, a Member of Design Hotelsâ„¢ | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The Wellesley Knightsbridge, a Luxury Collection Hotel, London | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Cristallo, a Luxury Collection Resort & Spa, Cortina d’Ampezzo | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis Bal Harbour Resort | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Giardino Ascona, A Member Of Design Hotels | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis Osaka | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Giardino Mountain, a Member of Design Hotels | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| W Koh Samui | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| G-Rough, Rome, a Member of Design Hotels | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Al Maha, a Luxury Collection Desert Resort & Spa, Dubai | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The Prince Gallery Tokyo Kioicho, a Luxury Collection Hotel | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Hôtel de Berri, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Paris | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis Bora Bora Resort | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Hotel Cala di Volpe, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Costa Smeralda | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis Mardavall Mallorca Resort | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Hotel Danieli, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Venice | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis Punta Mita Resort | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Hotel Pitrizza, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Costa Smeralda | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Vana Belle, a Luxury Collection Resort, Koh Samui | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Hotel President Wilson, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Geneva | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| W South Beach | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Hotel Romazzino, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Costa Smeralda | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The Gritti Palace, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Venice | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Kenoa Exclusive Beach Spa & Resort, Barra de Sao Miguel, a Member of Design Hotels | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis Aspen Resort | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Las Alcobas, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Napa Valley | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis Bahia Beach Resort, Puerto Rico | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Le Méridien Bora Bora | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis Bali Resort | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Mystique, A Luxury Collection Resort, Santorini | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis Deer Valley | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| PalazzinaG, Venice, a Member of Design Hotels | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis Maldives Vommuli Resort | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Parklane, a Luxury Collection Resort & Spa, Limassol | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis New York | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Phoenician Residences, a Luxury Collection Residence Club, Scottsdale | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis Princeville Resort | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Prince de Galles, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Paris | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The St. Regis San Francisco | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Santa Marina, a Luxury Collection Resort, Mykonos | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The Westin Golf Resort & Spa, Playa Conchal | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Schloss Fuschl, a Luxury Collection Resort & Spa, Fuschlsee-Salzburg | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| W Bali – Seminyak | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Sir Joan Hotel, Ibiza City, a Member of Design Hotels | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| W Maldives | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| Suiran, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Kyoto | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| W Verbier | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The Canyon Suites at The Phoenician, a Luxury Collection Resort, Scottsdale | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
| The Chatwal, a Luxury Collection Hotel, New York City | 90,000 | 60,000 | -30,000 |
Hotels to book before August
Here are all of the hotels that will cost 15K to 24K more in August than they do now:
| Hotel Name | Points Required Today | Points Required August | Difference |
| The Westin Riverfront Mountain Villas, Beaver Creek Mountain | 36,000 | 60,000 | 24,000 |
| Sheraton Broadway Plantation Resort Villas | 30,000 | 50,000 | 20,000 |
| Sheraton Vistana Resort Villas, Lake Buena Vista/Orlando | 30,000 | 50,000 | 20,000 |
| Marriott’s Club Son Antem | 30,000 | 50,000 | 20,000 |
| Sheraton on the Falls Hotel | 30,000 | 50,000 | 20,000 |
| Marriott’s Waikoloa Ocean Club | 40,000 | 60,000 | 20,000 |
| Sheraton Vistana Villages Resort Villas, I-Drive/Orlando | 30,000 | 50,000 | 20,000 |
| Marriott’s Newport Coast Villas | 40,000 | 60,000 | 20,000 |
| Vistana Beach Club | 30,000 | 50,000 | 20,000 |
| Marriott’s Waiohai Beach Club | 40,000 | 60,000 | 20,000 |
| Marriott’s Kauai Lagoons – Kalanipu’u | 40,000 | 60,000 | 20,000 |
| London Marriott Hotel Park Lane | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| JW Marriott Santa Monica Le Merigot | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Scrub Island Resort, Spa & Marina, Autograph Collection | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Marriott Vacation Club Pulse at Custom House, Boston | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| London Marriott Hotel County Hall | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Marriott Vacation Club Pulse, San Diego | 35,000 | 50,000 | 15,000 |
| MVW Streamside Evergreen at Vail | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Cotton House Hotel, Autograph Collection | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| JW Marriott Essex House New York | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Marriott’s Crystal Shores | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| The Cove Atlantis, Autograph Collection | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Marriott’s Cypress Harbour Villas | 35,000 | 50,000 | 15,000 |
| Vail Marriott Mountain Resort | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Marriott’s Fairway Villas | 35,000 | 50,000 | 15,000 |
| MVW Streamside Douglas at Vail | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Marriott’s Frenchman’s Cove | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Paris Marriott Champs Elysees Hotel | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Marriott’s Imperial Palms Villas | 35,000 | 50,000 | 15,000 |
| Grosvenor House, A JW Marriott Hotel | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Domes Noruz Chania, Autograph Collection | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| JW Marriott Nashville | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Boscolo Exedra Roma, Autograph Collection | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| SpringHill Suites Springdale Zion National Park | 35,000 | 50,000 | 15,000 |
| Domes of Elounda, Autograph Collection | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| The Shelbourne Dublin, A Renaissance Hotel | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Marriott’s Royal Palms | 35,000 | 50,000 | 15,000 |
| Union Station Hotel Nashville, Autograph Collection | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Marriott’s Sabal Palms | 35,000 | 50,000 | 15,000 |
| London Marriott Hotel Grosvenor Square | 45,000 | 60,000 | 15,000 |
| Marriott’s St. Kitts Beach Club | 35,000 | 50,000 | 15,000 |
| Fairfield Inn & Suites Virgin Zion National Park | 35,000 | 50,000 | 15,000 |
| Marriott’s Marbella Beach Resort | 35,000 | 50,000 | 15,000 |
And here are a bunch that will go up by 13K or 14K points:
| Hotel Name | Points Required Today | Points Required August | Difference |
| The Westin Copley Place, Boston | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| W Seattle | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin Resort & Spa, Cancun | 21,000 | 35,000 | 14,000 |
| Falisia, a Luxury Collection Resort & Spa, Portopiccolo | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Nines, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Portland | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Great Northern Hotel, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel, London | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin Kierland Villas | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Hotel Bristol, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Vienna | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin St. Francis San Francisco on Union Square | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Le Méridien Cambridge-MIT | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Equinox, a Luxury Collection Golf Resort & Spa, Vermont | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Le Méridien Delfina Santa Monica | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| THE US GRANT, a Luxury Collection Hotel, San Diego | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Le Méridien Fisherman’s Cove | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin Grand Cayman Seven Mile Beach Resort & Spa | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Le Méridien Mina Seyahi Beach Resort & Marina | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin Monache Resort, Mammoth | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Le Méridien Ra Beach Hotel & Spa | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin San Diego Gaslamp Quarter | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Le Metropolitan, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel, Paris | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Twelve at Hengshan, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Shanghai | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Le Royal Méridien Beach Resort & Spa | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Walt Disney World Swan | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Le Westin Resort & Spa, Tremblant, Quebec | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Inn at Rancho Santa Fe, a Tribute Portfolio Resort & Spa | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Park Tower, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Buenos Aires | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The St. Regis Moscow Nikolskaya | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Royal Palm South Beach Miami, a Tribute Portfolio Resort | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin Boston Waterfront | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Sheraton Boston Hotel | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin Desert Willow Villas, Palm Desert | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Sheraton Commander Hotel | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin Grand, Vancouver | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Sheraton Fisherman’s Wharf Hotel | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin Mission Hills Resort Villas, Palm Springs | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Sheraton Grand Hotel & Spa, Edinburgh | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin Nashville | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Sheraton Hong Kong Hotel & Towers | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin San Diego | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Sheraton Lakeside Terrace Villas at Mountain Vista, Avon, Vail Valley | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin Seattle | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Sheraton Louisville Riverside Hotel | 21,000 | 35,000 | 14,000 |
| The Westin Trillium House, Blue Mountain | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Sheraton Miyako Hotel Tokyo | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| W Fort Lauderdale | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Sheraton New York Times Square Hotel | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Walt Disney World Dolphin | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Augustine, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Prague | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| The Ballantyne, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Charlotte | 36,000 | 50,000 | 14,000 |
| Sheraton Skyline Hotel London Heathrow | 21,000 | 35,000 | 14,000 |
| Four Points by Sheraton Orlando International Drive | 12,000 | 25,000 | 13,000 |
| Sheraton Lake Buena Vista Resort | 12,000 | 25,000 | 13,000 |
Category Analyses
Primary Question: How do the old categories map to the new categories?
SPG
Here are the actual chart mappings for SPG properties. The % column shows the percent of hotels within the same original category that were assigned to this new category. Rows with very low percentages are not shown. I’ve highlighted in red where prices have gone up significantly and in green where prices go down significantly.
Keep in mind that the hotels that map to category 8 above will actually be category 7 (60K points) from August to early 2019.
Marriott & Ritz
Here are the actual chart mappings for Marriott & Ritz properties. The % column shows the percent of hotels within the same original category that were assigned to this new category. Rows with very low percentages are not shown. I’ve highlighted in red where prices have gone up significantly and in green where prices go down significantly.
Not surprisingly, almost all current top tier Marriott’s (Cat 9) are going up in price. 74% go up only 5K per night, but a significant percentage go up more.
[…] SPG/Marriott Analysis […]
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Wouldn’t it be important to know what constitutes “peak” or “off peak”?
That would be useful, but we don’t have that information.
1-5 category certificate will retain the value? so that I can choose new category 5 and below hotel starting Aug? I have been looking for this answer. Please add a link where I can confirm the fact when you get a chance. Thank you so much for the info. You are awesome!
No. Retain their value does not equal retain the same category name.
The current value of Cat 1-5 is up to 25K points for 1 night (a current Cat 5 hotel costs 25K points).
We expect that certificate will still be valid at properties that charge up to 25K points. That’ll be Cat 4 in the new program. The good news, and Greg nots, is that the vast majority of current Cat 5 hotels will stay at 25K and move to Cat 4 in the new program.
I see. That’s a good news for me. Thank you.
Weighted average night cost across the portfolio is currently 25K.
After the full changes in 2019, IF STANDARD PRICING APPLIES, then the weighted average night cost goes down to 24K. However, given that is quite unlikely with the peak/off-peak levels, I made a few assumptions and would estimate that the EFFECTIVE weighted average night cost stays right at 25K.
There is a lot of movement inside this staying level, with some high end hotels of most interest to the points crowd going up and some going down, but really Marriott seems to have tried to keep point levels about even across luxury/mid/econo categories. Of course, there are great deals to be had between August 2018 and early 2019 at category 8 hotels for 60K points a night, and the 5th night free on top.
OVERALL EARN/BURN NET CHANGE:
SPG members get much better earning rates across all elite/non-elite categories than currently, so they are around 35% better off taking account no change to the redemption side. Current Marriott non-elites and 25-49 night elites get little to no change, 10-24 night elites are the only ones hurt by about 10% due to lower earning, and 50+ night elites are ~15% better off due to improved earnings.
Much better than I feared on earning/burning through stays! The SPG members leave a ridiculously under-rewarding earn proposition behind, and current 50+ night Marriott elites get a sweetened earn set up too. Low night Marriott elites get a devaluation, but not a terrible one. Lets see how Travel packages turn out…