Marriott travel packages are awards in which you exchange Marriott Rewards points for airline miles plus a 7 night stay certificate (or a 5 night certificate for timeshare owners). You do not have to book your actual stay right away. You have a year to do so, and Marriott Rewards has been very generous about extending the validity of the certificate for another year when asked. So, many of us will have 7 night certificates in their accounts when Marriott and Starwood merge programs in August. What will happen to those certificates then?
The Point-Equivalent Hypothesis
Previously, we had been told that all outstanding certificates will be replaced with new certificates that match the number of points that the current certificate is valid for. For example, Marriott category 1-5 certificates today can be used at hotels that cost up to 25,000 points per night, so we expect those certificates to be replaced with new ones that are good for free nights costing up to 25,000 points per night. In other words, the new certificates will have point limits rather than category limits. This view of our certificate future is directly supported by Marriott’s official transition FAQ, with the caveat that this is about credit card free night certificates, not travel package certificates:
I HAVE A FREE NIGHT CERTIFICATE FROM A MARRIOTT REWARDS OR RITZ-CARLTON REWARDS CREDIT CARD. CAN I USE IT AT AN SPG HOTEL (OR VICE VERSA) AFTER AUGUST?
Members may book a redemption reservation with an existing Free Night Certificate under the current terms up until August 2018, even if the arrival date is after August 2018. Starting in August, any outstanding Certificates will be updated from Category-based to points-based values in the new combined redemption chart and may be used for stays at Rewards or SPG hotels up to the points value displayed on your updated Certificate. For example, you will be able to apply a Marriott Rewards Free Night Certificate to an SPG stay, or an SPG Free Night Award to a Marriott Rewards stay. Ritz-Carlton Rewards Free Night Certificates can also be applied to Marriott Rewards and SPG hotels.
To me, this seems like a fair way to deal with all existing certificates, especially since Marriott claims that more hotels will go down in award price than up in the new program. Plus, it will make all existing certificates more valuable since they’ll be usable at all hotels across the Marriott / SPG / Ritz portfolio that cost that many points or fewer.
The Points-Back Hypothesis
A reliable source of SPG / Marriott info, Starwood Lurker on Flyertalk, threw a wrench in our certificate assumptions when he posted the following on Flyertalk:
Floater certificates, including outstanding Marriott Travel Packages, will be cancelled and converted to equivalent points, credited to the member’s account for future redemption. <added by Starwood Lurker 18May18>
At first, I thought that Starwood Lurker was confused. The Marriott FAQ that I referenced above can be misinterpreted if you don’t carefully read the whole thing. Consider the beginning of this sentence: “any outstanding Certificates will be updated from Category-based to points-based values…” That part does make it sound like you’ll get points back. But the rest makes it clear that you’ll get a certificate: “… up to the points value displayed on your updated Certificate.” So, I figured that Starwood Lurker had made a mistake and would amend his statement later. But he didn’t…
Starwood Lurker posted again on the topic a few days later in response to someone asking how many points would be refunded. His non-answer clearly tells us that he continued to believe that the certificates would be exchanged for points, but he didn’t know how many points:
“I have a 7-night category 1-5 Marriott certificate from the travel package. Are you saying I will receive 150,000 Marriott points for it, to use for anything I want?”All I am saying is exactly was was written: Floater certificates, including outstanding Marriott Travel Packages, will be cancelled and converted to equivalent points, credited to the member’s account for future redemption. <added by Starwood Lurker 18May18>I have no idea what the converted equivalent points will be.
Best regards,
William R. Sanders
Social Media Specialist
Starwood Hotels & Resorts LLC
“…Would love if William could confirm the value of the hotel point value of a travel package when refunded…”Would love to be able to, but I cannot.Best regards,
William R. Sanders
The fact that Starwood Lurker has continued to support the idea that certificates will be refunded suggests to me that his original assertion wasn’t a mistake. He believed it on May 18th and continued to believe it on June 18th.
What the heck are “floater certificates”?
I can’t find a good definition of Marriott / SPG “floater certificates” anywhere. Previously I figured that floater certificates were all free night certificates that haven’t yet been redeemed for free nights. But, in the Flyertalk Wiki on this subject, Starwood Lurker makes a distinction between “outstanding awards for certificates” and “floater certificates”. He maintains that “outstanding awards for certificates” will be converted to new certificates with commensurate value, but “floater certificates” will be converted to points:
C5. How will existing Chase category-5 certificates be handled after the realignment of categories?
- “Starting in August, any outstanding Certificates will be updated from Category-based to points-based values in the new combined redemption chart and may be used for stays at Rewards or SPG hotels up to the points value displayed on your updated Certificate.” (Source: https://members.marriott.com/faq/#i-…a-after-august)
- Existing awards can be attached to any reservation made through July 2018 and are valid for 50 weeks. Any outstanding awards for certificates with a pre-defined category (like Chase or MegaBonus promotional certificates) will be converted to a commensurate value with the new award schedule. Floater certificates will be cancelled and converted to equivalent points, credited to the member’s account for future redemption. <added by Starwood Lurker 19Apr18>
So all we can be really confident of is that “outstanding Marriott Travel Packages” are floater certificates. My guess is that “outstanding Marriott Travel Packages” are packages that have been purchased, but where the free nights have not yet been booked.
UPDATE 6/21/2018: Starwood Lurker answered my question on Flyertalk as follows:
47. What is the definition of a “floater certificate”?
Examples might include the annual Credit Card certs, Megabonus certs, and unused Travel Package certs. <added by Starwood Lurker 21Jun18>
Wow! This potentially means that credit card free night certificates will turn into point equivalents as long as they’re in your account by August. Suddenly I’m even more interested in the Ritz card…
Why this is important
It has long been possible for Marriott Rewards members to cancel their 7 night stay certificates in exchange for points. Category 1-5 certificates net 45K points. Higher level certificates net 45K plus the difference in price between that certificate and a category 1-5 certificate. For example, a category 8 certificate costs 90K more than a category 1-5 certificate, so cancelling a category 8 would get you 45K + 90K = 135K points back.
If Marriott were to unilaterally cancel certificates at the current refund rate, customers would be outraged. Consider someone planning to use a category 1-5 certificate for 7 nights at a category 5 hotel. If they instead got only 45K points, they’d only be able to use those points for one night… almost two since current category 5 hotels cost 25K points per night.
To stay whole, a category 1-5 certificate owner would have to get 25K x 7 – 25K for 5th night free = 150K points.
If Marriott is really going to cancel certificates in exchange for points, I think they’d have to keep people whole. In fact, Marriott execs have consistently stated their goal to keep customers whole, in many different ways, through the transition. This means that category 1-5 certs would net 150K points, cat 1-6 would net 180K, etc.
That would be amazing
Consider buying a category 1-5 package for 270K points. Under normal circumstances, that would get you 132K United miles or 120K airline miles of various other types (or less with some others), plus the 7 night certificate. But if your certificate was refunded for 150K points, then you would really get 132K United miles or 120K other miles for a net cost of only 270K – 150K = 120K Marriott points.
This gets more jaw dropping when we look at this from the point of view of SPG Starpoints which normally transfer to airline miles 1 to 1.25 (20K to 25K). Since SPG Starpoints convert to Marriott 1 to 3, you would get the following exchange rates after the point refund:
- Net 40K SPG Starpoints = 132K United
- Net 40K SPG Starpoints = 120K other miles (Aeromexico, Air Canada, Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, British Airways, Copa Airlines, Delta Airlines, Frontier Airlines, GOL/Varig, Hawaiian Airlines, Iberia Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Virgin Atlantic)
- Net 40K SPG Starpoints = 85K Aeroflot, Air China, Air France/KLM, Alitalia, ANA, Asia Miles, Asiana Airlines, Avianca-TACA LifeMiles, China Eastern, Emirates, Etihad Airways, Japan Airlines, Jet Airways, Korean Air SKYPASS, LAN, Lufthansa Miles & More, Multiplus, Qantas, Qatar Airways, Saudia Airlines, Singapore Airlines, South African Airways Voyager, TAP Air Portugal, Turkish Airlines
- Net 40K SPG Starpoints = 60K JetBlue
Of course, you can’t cycle the same points over and over since the refund won’t appear until August. So, it’s probably more accurate to consider what can be done with the refunded points. We know that in August, 60K rewards points will be transferable to 25K airline miles, so 150K rewards points will be transferable to 60K airline miles (two 60K transfers to 25K miles each, and one 30K transfer to 10K miles). It follows then that those who prefer airline miles can (theoretically) convert points as follows:
- 90K SPG points = 120K airline miles (see above for other rates) + 7 night cat 1-5 certificate…
- 7 night certificate = 150K rewards points = 60K airline miles
- Total: 90K SPG points = 120K airline miles + 60K airline miles = 180K airline miles (more for United, less for various international airlines and JetBlue). That’s a terrific, 1 to 2 transfer ratio!
But, I’m not at all confident…
If I was confident that travel package certificates would convert to points as described above, I’d shout on the rooftops for everyone to buy a package now. In fact, I think it would make sense for anyone who can afford it to buy the needed points during the current 35% off points sale (details here) in order to convert those points to airline miles at an extremely favorable ratio.
My biggest hesitation is with the fact that I don’t understand why Marriott would do this. If they have the ability to convert one night certificates to points equivalent certificates in the new program, why couldn’t they do the same with travel packages? If multi-day certificates were the problem, then why not convert them to 7 one-night certificates? It just doesn’t make sense.
Based on the fact that I had previously been told that the stay certificates would convert to points equivalent certificates, plus the fact that I don’t really know what “floater certificates” are, plus the fact that the whole idea of refunding them for points makes little sense, I wouldn’t bet much on this really happening. If I had to estimate a probability, I’d say that there’s maybe a 20% chance of it playing out as described above.
The downside of buying now
There are two significant downsides to buying travel packages before August. One is that you might prefer to conserve your points to book SPG properties that are currently category 7 or higher (off-the-chart properties) when they temporarily go down to 60K rewards points (20K Starpoints) in August.
Another reason not to buy now is that there may be better deals in August. We have been told that travel packages will still exist and will offer similar value. We’ve also been told that Marriott’s goal is to offer all airline miles at the same rates. This could mean that high value airline miles that are currently a bad deal with travel packages will suddenly become a great deal (examples include ANA, Asiana Airlines, Japan Airlines, and Korean Air SKYPASS).
How I’ll Play It
It’s worth keeping in mind that travel packages as they exist today are a great deal if you need the airline miles. If you have a real need (or good use) for 132K United Airlines miles or 120K Alaska miles, to name two examples, then a travel package can be a great deal even if you have no interest in ever using the stay certificate.
I currently have a 7 night category 8 stay certificate with no immediate plans for how to use it. If I were to cancel it now, I’d get back 135K points and I’d be fine with that since I really purchased the package for the airline miles. But, if this plays out the way I described above, the certificate could turn into 240K points in August. That would be a huge win. So, obviously I’ll hold onto my certificate to see what happens in August.
The real question for me is whether to buy an additional package. If I needed airline miles I’d do it, but I’m flush with most miles in quite a few programs. Plus, I want to use my points to book SPG properties that are currently category 7 or higher when they temporarily go down to 60K rewards points (20K Starpoints) in August.
More Info
More info about Travel Packages:
- Why are Marriott Travel Packages a good deal?
- 12 things you need to know about Marriott Travel Packages
More info about the Marriott SPG Merger:
Want to learn more about miles and points? Subscribe to email updates or check out our podcast on your favorite podcast platform.
I have 360k marriott points, 215k amex plat points, and 100k delta skymiles plus my wife has 100k delta skymiles. I’m wanting to stay at the St. Regis Bali in November. Would it make sense to book a Marriott TP now? I would be flying from Atlanta and could use the extra skymiles.
If you know that you’ll need the Delta miles, then yes it’s a good idea to book the travel package before August 18th (when prices will go WAY up for those packages). That said, I have no idea what category certificate you’d need to request now to be able to book the St. Regis Bali in November.
[…] with existing travel package certificates when the programs merge. In my earlier post “Potential huge win with Marriott Travel Packages before August,” I detailed the possibility that the certificates will be converted to the number of points […]
[…] See also: Potential huge win with Marriott Travel Packages before August. […]
Good afternoon All,
Thank you for all of the great information you have provided; I appreciate the detail.
I am lifetime platinum ambassador with SPG sitting with sub 700k Starpoints and I have about 280K Marriott Points. I am thinking of converting my Marriott Points to a travel package and I am wondering if it is better to go less miles and higher category or vice versa. I have some status with all of the airlines, but I would likely fly American Airlines now that the Delta Program is about to be sunset. I can always use airline miles, but with all the changes coming in August am I better served to have a higher certificate? I usually vacation travel in the category 5/6 range, but I’m not against living larger Thank you and I appreciate your time and effort on this.
Always go with the most miles
[…] Greg wrote about the potential for a huge win with Marriott Travel Packages. Of course, we don’t know that there will be a huge win — it’s just potential. […]
[…] gets into the nuanced detail and provides some guesses and recommendations, which you may access here. I would say that you’re best to just use your certificate to lock in a hotel now. If […]
[…] Time is running out to book a Marriott Travel Package under the current rewards structure. We don’t know yet whether travel packages will be better or worse in the new program, but we do know that there’s a slight chance that redeeming points for a travel package before August will result in a big win (please click through this link for details). […]
[…] redeeming points on a Marriott travel package before August 1st. I won’t rehash all the info, Frequent Miler has a series of excellent posts on the subject. Once again, there is a lot of uncertainty, but there is a potential for a huge upside. I […]
Greg, before August, what airline miles transfer to an international destination do you consider to be an excellent value for the 120,000 miles and Marriott points? Everywhere I check requires way more miles than what I will have by more than 80,000 miles I would have to buy.
You might be interested in this post:
https://frequentmiler.com/2018/06/21/46860/
I Read it but am not sure how do you find these award miles you mentioned on respective airlines.? Some of the airlines try to make me try to sign in when I do Not even have a frequent flyer number to see award miles required.
Excuse my ignorance but I see nothing like what you have posted to be the best in each respective category (First Class/Business Class to Asia/Africa/Australia) on the previous mentioned airline.
Can you help steer me how to find those award miles as I am interested in (Capetown, Greece and New Zealand). Alaska look interesting but I have never flown them much less with 2 people who want to travel in something other than just Economy and would love a lie flat bed. Thanks Nick.
That’s a really, really complicated question to answer. Booking international awards to popular destinations like South Aftrica and New Zealand at great rates takes a lot of knowledge and often some creativity and even luck to pull off.
To get you started with a basic idea though: Alaska miles are not great for flying Alaska airlines. Alaska miles are great to use to book awards on certain Alaska partners, such as Cathay Pacific. The same is true with almost all of the airline mileage programs that Nick posted about. The idea is to get those miles so that you can fly on their partners at great rates.
Is there any thought to upgrading your cat 1-5 to cat 6 just to ‘lock in’ the points? Just in case Marriott gives you somewhere in between a cat1-5 valuation for your points?
Seems unlikely to be necessary but If you have the points, it can’t hurt.
Greg–I thought you had written somewhere that IF one was going to do this, you’d recommend a category 7, is that correct? And if so, how come? Also, any additional thoughts about 5 night vs. 7 night (assuming one is eligible)? Thanks very much.
this might be useful https://frequentmiler.com/2018/04/27/marriott-travel-package-arbitrage/
Category 8 actually. Since I wrote that post though I’ve learned that Marriott is more likely to issue point-based certs rather than category based. If so, it shouldn’t matter which package you get unless they change the price (or ability) of upgrading / downgrading.
Well I ordered a 7 night cat 1-5 yesterday (and got the Alaska miles) for 270 and the agent called the certificate a “floater” certificate and it is sitting in my account with a 6/21/2019 expiration date. I did an expedited award hoping against hope that the miles would make it in two days so I can beat the F class AS award mileage increasing from 25K to 30K and they arrived this afternoon so it was a 24 hour turnaround. Yippee! Now does anyone know if AS will charge me to change a date by a day on an “A” class award ticket if I have no status with them?
[…] Marriott Travel Packages. One about the best airlines to go with them and the other contemplating how to win big before August. I advise bloggers to draft posts expressing their outrage when Marriott kills this, […]
Greg says, “… huge win with Marriott Travel Packages before August …”
How so?
Currently, Marriott will refund 45K Marriott points (15K Starpoints) if you return the 7 night stay certificate. That’s not a good value for the 7 night hotel certificate. And the quote by SPG Lurker does not give confidence that there will be a better rate of refund for the floating certificates.
Did you read the post? Keep in mind that I wrote “I wouldn’t bet much on this really happening. If I had to estimate a probability, I’d say that there’s maybe a 20% chance of it playing out as described above.”
greg. this was a very detailed post. however, dare i say it was a waste of your efforts to put this much time writing your thoughts without concrete policy from Marriott. anything and everything could change as soon as marriott announces their plans. i guess your readers always appreciate your thoughts on potential huge wins. but this is similar to the massive blogs posts writing about what may/may not happen when marriott bought SPG. so much talk and speculation. huge waste of time without directives from marriott and when the final word came out, it rendered past discussion obsolete. anyway, just saying. we need more info from marriott ASAP so we can take the time to analyze.
Sure it would be great to get real answers from Marriott, but I don’t think that will happen in time for people to make decisions. I think that speculation like this helps people think through their options in order to make decisions in the face of imperfect information.
right. and thats why the most important section in your post was:
“How I’ll Play It: It’s worth keeping in mind that travel packages as they exist today are a great deal if you need the airline miles… a travel package can be a great deal even if you have no interest in ever using the stay certificate.”
thats pretty much it. do the deal as it stands today if you value it because everything may be nuked by aug 1st. period.
Disagree. This is a thorny issue; I’ve read several breathless accounts talking up one aspect or another, and this is the most well-rounded, logically reasoned perspective I’ve seen.