Last week I wrote “Between 23,000 and 40,000 points for $46 and a cramped hand.” The idea discussed in that post was that you could enter the IHG and MasterCard® Priceless Surprises® Promotion by sending in hand written entries rather than staying in IHG properties. Since the odds of winning something are pretty good, it looked like one could send it the maximum 94 entries and most likely receive between 23,000 and 40,000 points.
More than 40,000 points (at least 47,000 points)
The 23,000 to 40,000 point estimate was based on the odds of winning described in the official promotion rules document. Since then, MileValue argued persuasively that every entry would win a prize of at least 500 points. Then, Deals We Like confirmed this interpretation with her PR contact. This means that the official rules document incorrectly labeled the chance of winning as “odds” rather than “probability”. This explanation seems right to me. When we interpret the numbers as probabilities rather than odds, the probabilities add up to very close to 100%. The small gap between the summed probabilities and 100% could be the assumed probability of winning one of the bigger prizes which weren’t assigned specific probabilities (these are “Group A Prizes” which range from $50 prepaid cards to all-expense paid trips to Paris or New York).
So, assuming the new interpretation is correct, the original Deals We Like post on this topic is also correct: If all 94 entries are guaranteed to win at least 500 IHG points, then we can safely assume that we would earn at least 47,000 IHG points altogether.
I’ll leave it to JEM and ‘Dem Flyers to estimate the likely total.
More than $46
In my first post on this topic, I said that it would cost $46 for 94 stamps. I forgot about the envelopes. Luckily envelopes are pretty cheap. For example, on Amazon.com I found these envelopes for $2.99 per 50. And, if you have Amazon Prime (or a total order of $35) you get free shipping.