It’s bragging rights time.
At the start of 2025, most of us on the Frequent Miler team once again made a series of predictions for what we thought would happen in the world of credit cards, points, and miles, while Carrie made some predictions relating to the world of Frequent Miler.
12 months have passed since then, so it’s time for a retrospective to see whose crystal ball was the shiniest and whose needs to be returned to Temu.
Nick Predicted…
American will go off the charts
Nick thought that one piece of bad news this past year would be that American Airlines would abandon its award chart for partners. While award pricing for flights on American metal increased in some cases (it’s hard to determine quite how much due to dynamic pricing), the partner award chart remains unaffected…for now.
We’ll see a cruise match that takes us to uncharted waters
Yes! Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) offered a new cruise match opportunity (rather than a status match) which Nick booked recently.
He was also able to match to Margaritaville at Sea by sending them a picture of his Bally’s Superstar status from a match he did in Atlantic City and the confirmation email from his complimentary Atlantis stay from Caesars Diamond status and an old MSC balcony offer and they gave him a free balcony offer.
Flying Blue will make stopovers bookable online
It appears that this was wishful thinking, at least for 2025 anyway.
Barclays will bring back a transferable points card
I thought that this was one that might well come true, especially after Barclays unexpectedly added transfer partners to the Arrival Plus card back in 2022. Sadly not though.
Wells Fargo will add a bunch of transfer partners
I’m afraid Nick swung for the fences with this one, but he’d have been better served by going for a base hit. He predicted that Wells Fargo would add four new transfer partners throughout 2025, but they only added one – JetBlue.
Bonus prediction (not for any points): Frequent Miler will be better than ever
I guess this is in the eye of the beholder, but I feel like this definitely came true. If nothing else, Greg’s State of the Business Report shows how well we’re doing when it comes to page views, podcast downloads, YouTube views, etc.
Total: 2/5
Tim foretold…
Citi will go “Strataspheric” with a new premium card
A premium Citi card to replace the Prestige card had been rumored for a long time and Tim thought 2025 would be the year it happened. He was right.
Citi will announce that AA is becoming a transfer partner
This was a development we’d all long hoped for, but feared might never come. Thankfully 2025 was the year that changed and American Airlines is indeed now a transfer partner of Citi.
The problem with this prediction is that Tim didn’t actually state that it would happen this past year:
Let me be clear, I’m NOT predicting that you’ll be able to transfer your ThankYou points to AA in 2025. The exclusive relationship doesn’t start until 2026 and I don’t think that Citi will transfer to AA until that happens. However, I DO think that we’ll know for certain it will be happening by the end of 2025…and don’t look now, but when it does, ThankYou points may become the single most valuable transferable currency.
It’s close though, so half a point for this one.
AA will finally devalue its partner awards
Rejoice that this didn’t come to pass.
Hilton will raise the 150K cap on standard awards
While Tim’s previous correct predictions were welcome news, this Hilton prediction also came true sadly. Where the upper limit of award redemptions started the year at 150,000, they got increased again and again, so the upper limit is, as of right now, 250,000 Hilton Honors points for a standard award night at some properties. Oof.
Total: 2.5/4
Greg guessed…
Chase won’t make Ink Business Premier® a real Ink card
Unlike most of our predictions, this was one were Greg thought something wouldn’t happen rather than that there would be a change. He was correct too – the Chase Ink Business Premier® card didn’t gain the ability to transfer the rewards you earn on the card to travel partners.
American Airlines will devalue partner awards
Three members of the Frequent Miler team predicted that American would devalue their partner award chart. Thankfully – for us all – the three of them were incorrect.
Citi won’t add American Airlines as a transfer partner
Oops!
(The) good news would be if the Citi ThankYou Rewards program gains AA as a one to one transfer partner. That may happen in 2026 or beyond, but I’m predicting that it won’t happen in 2025.
In good news for us all, both of Greg’s predictions for American Airlines failed to come true as AA was added as a Citi transfer partner.
Delta won’t change their elite criteria for earning 2026 status
Although Delta will be changing some Choice benefits for Platinum and Diamond members from 2026 onwards, the requirements for earning elite status won’t be changing which means this is another correct prediction.
Total: 2/4
Stephen foresaw…
Bilt will make a major credit card change
During 2024, Bilt’s relationship with Wells Fargo made national news, so it seemed like it wouldn’t be long before there’d be a substantial change.
And a substantial change it is. Bilt is splitting from Wells Fargo and moving its card portfolio to Cardless. While that’s not happening until February 7, 2026, a major change did happen during this year because Bilt stopped accepting applications for their card on November 5.
Wells Fargo will add at least two new transfer partners
I was less optimistic than Nick when it came to new Wells Fargo transfer partners. He predicted four; I predicted two; we ended up with only one.
Another airline will make it easier to earn status through non-flight activity
I initially got a little unlucky with this prediction. I’d made a note of it in mid-2024, then Alaska Airlines stole my thunder in late 2024 before I had a chance to publish the prediction. Nevertheless, I thought a different airline would make it easier to earn elite status via non-flight activity such as credit card spending.
Southwest launched a debit card which makes it easier to earn a Companion Pass thanks to the bonus Companion Pass-qualifying points you can earn, but that’s not elite status. Various airlines also offered status match opportunities, but that’s not within the spirit of what I was predicting.
Thankfully United refreshed its credit card lineup, offering bonus Premier Qualifying Points (PQPs) on some cards, as well as increasing the number of PQPs that can be earned through spend, thereby making elite status more attainable.
A new travel business card will be launched
In my prediction, I said that the most likely source of a new travel-related business credit card would come from Chase, although I’d expected it to be a cobranded card with Aeroplan.
As it happens, it was Chase that launched a new card, but it was unexpectedly the Sapphire Reserve for Business℠ card that was introduced.
Hyatt will provide the ability to transfer points online
Several hotel loyalty programs allow you to transfer points between accounts online for free. Hyatt does allow you to transfer points for free, but you have to complete a form and email or mail it to them.
I’d hoped they’d finally develop the ability to transfer points online, especially considering you can easily and instantly transfer free night certificates, Suite Upgrade Awards, Guest of Honor Awards, etc. That apparently wasn’t a 2025 priority for them, so it’s a feature we’re all left still wishing for.
Total: 3/5
Carrie forecasted…
The Frequent Miler challenge will feature….
Carrie had a few expectations for our 2025 challenge, but here definite prediction was this:
To be more specific, I think this year’s challenge will feature some non-Asia and non-Europe destinations.
As it happens, all of us ended up in Europe for the 100K Vacay challenge, so Carrie’s streak of correct predictions has finally come to a close.
And the challenge will also feature…
Carrie predicted that both me and Tim would take part in 2025’s challenge and that did indeed occur.
Nick will find his sea legs again
Nick did indeed find his sea legs again, cruising in the Caribbean early in the year and in Europe in June.
A new country for Greg
Greg visited Malta during the 100K Vacay challenge which I believe was a new country for him. However, Carrie’s specific prediction for this entry was:
Greg will finally make it to Hong Kong, which he’s as of yet still never seen! (He’s gotten close!)
Greg didn’t make it to Hong Kong (yet), so no dice.
Total: 2/4
And the winner is…
This year’s predictions were a close-run thing. I got 3 out of 5 correct which puts me at a 60% success rate which is pretty good. However, Tim scored 2.5 out of 4 which is 62.5%, so Tim is the 2025 winner of the Frequent Miler predictions.
Stay tuned for our 2026 predictions!
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Another airline will make it easier to earn status through non-flight activity – this happened. With $75000 spend on Chase Sapphire Reserve, I was awarded Southwest A-List status.