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Marriott travel packages are awards in which you exchange Marriott Rewards points for airline miles plus a 7 night stay certificate. You do not have to book your actual stay right away. These packages currently offer great value when you select the options that earn 120,000 airline miles (or 132,000 United miles). On Saturday, though, the new combined Marriott / SPG program goes live and travel packages become a poor value.
So… I’ve been encouraging everyone with large stashes of Marriott and/or SPG points to use them to buy travel packages this week. The problem is that Marriott still hasn’t told us how they’re going to map the old categories to the new for this purpose. However, we do know several things:
- Packages will be mapped from old categories to new categories. Stay certificates that haven’t yet been used to book a stay, will be in limbo between 8/18 and 9/17. On 9/18, they will be converted to new category certificates. See: Marriott Travel Packages won’t turn into points, but will go into 1 month limbo.
- The mapping from old to new will result in “similarly valued categories”. View from the Wing was told this by Marriott: “While we plan on sharing the full conversion chart on 8/18, I can let you know that all existing certificates will convert to similarly valued categories after that date.”
- We may learn the new mapping on 8/18, but then it will be too late to do anything about it. Friday, 8/17 is the last day to buy travel packages (and I strongly advise you to do so sooner because Friday is going to be nuts.. not as nuts as Saturday, but still…)
This has left everyone with a conundrum. We want to buy travel packages, but we don’t know which category certificates will meet our needs.
Greg’s Guess
Given that Marriott intends to map old to new to result in “similarly valued categories,” here’s my best guess as to how Marriott will map the old travel packages to the new:
If I’m right about how the old categories will map to the new, then among those with travel package certificates, there will be clear winners and losers…
Winners
- Current category 6: Will be worth 5,000 extra points per night (30K total extra value)
- Current category 8: Will be worth 10,000 extra points per night (60K total extra value)
- Current Ritz Tier 1-3: Will be worth 10,000 extra points per night (60K total extra value) and can be used to book top tier hotels between September 18th and “early 2019” (when new category 8 is introduced)
- Current Ritz Tier 4-5: Will eventually be worth 15,000 extra points per night (90K total extra value), but only if you want to book top tier hotels after category 8 is introduced in early 2019.
Losers
- Current Ritz Tier 4-5: If you plan to book a top tier hotel between Sep 18 and early 2019, you’ll be very disappointed because you could have bought Ritz Tier 1-3 for 120,000 fewer points.
Slightly Disappointed
This group will be disappointed because they could have bought a lower category package to get the same value:
- Current category 7: Could have bought Category 6 for 30,000 fewer points
- Current category 9: Could have bought Category 8 for 30,000 fewer points
The best way to play this if you know which future category you want
If you know which new category hotel you want to stay in, then pick the cheapest current category that maps to your desired category on my guestimate chart:
For example, if you want to stay at a future category 6 hotel, then you should get a current category 8 travel package.
If you want to stay in a top tier hotel, it gets a little more complicated. If you know that you will be able to book that top tier hotel before category 8 gets introduced (book between September 18th and early 2019 for stays during that time or later), then Ritz Tier 1-3 is your best bet. If you’re pretty sure that you won’t be able to book your stay until mid-2019 or later, then Ritz Tier 4-5 is best.
An even better way to play this
If you have a fortune in points and you believe that Marriott will continue to allow certificate category downgrades in the new program, then consider buying Ritz Tier 4-5 packages. I’ll explain my thinking in a follow-up post.
Update: Here’s the new post “A case for gambling on top tier travel packages.”
Important
If you plan to buy a travel package (or upgrade/downgrade one), please see this post: Navigating Marriott’s phone prompts to book a Travel Package.
The Peak Pricing View
A few readers have pointed out to me that the new travel package pricing appears to be based on peak award rates, rather than standard rates. If we go by those rates, the mapping from old to new is different, and much worse.
The idea that Marriott may map the packages this way has merit, but it would be really bad for everyone who hopes to use their stay certificates for a similarly priced hotel in the new program. Here’s one way the mapping might happen if Marriott was to do this:
The specifics shown above are completely open to debate, but there’s no doubt that basing the conversion on peak pricing would lead to upsetting results for most of us. I don’t think that Marriott has any intention to do something as drastic as this, but I think it is important to show a near worst case scenario.
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For those who are still waiting, here is the official announcement: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/30097942-post5529.html
For your convenience, below is the true form that shall be used for those booking this year per regular point value instead of peak/off-peak values.
Highlights:
1. Cat 9 is a winner
2. Cat 6, Cat 8, and Tier 4-5 are losers
3. For the rest, it is a tie.
=============================================
Old Travel Package Category New Travel Package category
Cat 1-5 (25k) ===> New cat 1-4 (25k)
Cat 6 (30k) ===> New cat 1-4 (25k)
Cat 7 (35k) ===> New cat 5 (35k)
Cat 8 (40k) ===> New cat 5 (35k)
Cat 9 (45K) ===> New cat 6 (50k)
Tier 1-3 (50K) ===> New cat 6 (50k)
Tier 4-5 (70K) ===> New cat 7 (60K)
=============================================
Greg,
There can be another minor variation to your suggested mapping:-
Scenario 1: Middle Ground
Old Cat 1-5 -> Cat 4
Old Cat 6 -> Cat 5
Old Cat 7 -> Cat 5 + Refund 30K
Old Cat 8 -> Cat 6
Old Cat 9 -> Cat 6 + Refund 30K
Tier 1-3 -> Cat 7
Tier 4-5 -> Cat 8
This way cat 7 and 9 are no longer losers. This approach can be applied to any multiple old categories mapping to the new ones.
Scenario 2: Peak Pricing
The table you have is not the most grim. If they really go by peak pricing, it will be
Old Cat 1-7 -> Cat 4
Old Cat 8-9, Tier 1-3 -> Cat 5
Tier 4-5 -> Cat 7
Even old Cat 7 (35K) will be enough for new Cat 4 peak pricing only (25K) and not new Cat 5 (40K). None will map to new Cat 6 or Cat 8. This scenario is too grim and I don’t think it will fly. The one you outlined is still better but if they do go for a middle ground, then I expect them to go with Scenario 1 or the one outlined by you. If they go with peak pricing, they will see a lot of downgrades to certificates – see arbitrage point below – a lot more hassle for customer reps.
Question: In either scenario, why would you think a new cat 7 certificate (mapping from either Tier 1-3 (scenario 1) or Tier 4-5 (scenario 2) would be applicable to cat 8 hotels (till the time they are discounted)? I am asking because the certificates are at category level and not points.
Re: arbitrage
Finally, I do expect that members will be able to upgrade/downgrade certificates post Aug 18. If they wanted to change this feature, they would have announced it prior.
However, I do not expect Marriott will allow the arbitrage. Too many variables involved – what will be the refund price of such a converted certificate? How will it impact existing attached certificates. I believe this opens up more questions for the business team. Instead Marriott will probably link it to old pricing – this simpler solution itself will be a complex integration.
[…] Above is my best guess of how old travel package categories will map to new. Keep in mind that it’s just a guess. We won’t know for certain before August 18th. See: Mapping old to new Marriott Travel Packages […]
I haven’t seen any advice regarding 5 night packages in this shake-up.
Is it the same, or are there other thoughts?
If they do map old categories to new, I’d expect the mapping to be exactly the same
I don’t think Marriott will turn a 1-5 package into a 1-4 package. Many people, especially those who don’t spend all their day on this blog, will be rightfully upset. Their arguments would go like this.
1. I don’t care that you are introducing a new 1-4 package for a similar price as my 1-5 package. That shouldn’t affect what I already bought.
2. It doesn’t matter that many hotels are moving from Cat 5 to 4. Using the package at a hotel is never based on the category of the hotel at the time that I bought the package. It’s only based on the category at the time of redemption. If a Cat 5 changed to a Cat 6 before I made the booking, I’d be out of luck. So what does it matter when a category goes down?
3. I bought a package based on category only, not points. I don’t care if you introduced a new category 4 that is the same number of points as the old category 5. I should still be able to get what my package says.
It would be really disappointing to have the categories downgraded. I recently purchased a 5 day Cat 7 package because points wise that converts to Cat 5, and I live in Australia and the majority of hotels here are Cat 5 and up. The ones I would want to stay in for sure, otherwise I would have saved myself 35k and gone for 1-5
I understand what you’re saying, but I think the problem is that Marriott kept the same names for categories even though they are now quite different. If Marriott’s new program were to have categories A, B, C, D, E… then people wouldn’t be able to complain about their certs going from cat 5 to cat 4. Instead cat 5 would become category A,…
[…] today I posted my best guess of how old Marriott travel packages will be converted to new ones: Mapping old to new Marriott Travel Packages. In that post, I suggested that the following conversions were […]
so TP stay certs are going to be 60k instead of 30k to go up a category…the new pricing for TP really takes the value out of the air miles…take a cat6 package for example with 50k room pricing, 5th night free, you could get 2 5 night or a 10 night stay for 400k…so those 100k air miles are now 110k points and 3 days stay at new cat 6 properties…needless to say there will be less TP sold in the new system.
Correct. New travel packages as of 8/18 offer poor value
Greg, do you see any downside to attaching the certificates? I have no plans for 2 – Cat 8 – 5 nights certificates but will go ahead and speculatively attach unless leaving detached is better option. I see lots on flyer talk leaving detaching today.
Any chance they become non-changeable?
I don’t think so. For example, when I attached mine, I was told that I had until X days before the reservation to make changes for free.
What did you buy, Greg and what did you attach it to?
No, I don’t see any likely downside to attaching certificates.
@ Greg — any ideas on what happens to certificates attached to a reservation for a hotel that’s going to be higher than the equivalent new category? Say, if Cat 1-9 gets converted to Cat 1-6 but hotel is Cat. 7 or 8.
Ideally, I would love to sue it for travel in mid-August 2019 or November 2019, so I’m wondering if there are any downsides to attaching it to a reservation for an earlier date and then hoping to be able to change the dates later.
What do you think?
My guess is that they won’t let us change dates or properties without re-depositing the certificiate into our account. At that point, if I’m right, we’ll get the same exact certificate category as if we hadn’t attached it in the first place.
So why are you saying people with Cat 7 will be disappointed? Can’t they downgrade after 9/18 to a 1-4 and get the 60k refunded? This seems to be the theory on FT that everything will revert to cats 1-4 and the differences in what you redeemed will be refunded to your account. Why do you not think that will happen? Every blogger has a different theory. It’s crazy. Also, there are no categories with a 30k per night redemption. Why don’t you think they will downgrade it to a 1-4 25 k. Nothing has officially been said to members so I take everything about what will or will not happen with a grain of salt.
If my category mapping is correct, then starting with old cat 7 you will end up with the same value as someone who started with old cat 6. Yes, you could then downgrade further and get more points, but it will still be the case that you could have gotten the exact same value for 30K less (if my chart is true)
For completeness, I’ve added a more negative option at the bottom of the post, titled “The Peak Pricing View” (thanks Blue).
I have high faith in your suppositions and am thinking of changing my cat 9 to a higher option. Did you keep your cat 9 packages??
I did keep them because I used them to book the Domes of Elounda which will become Cat 8
The table really makes it clear–and you can clearly see from it how the pricing of the packages above 1-4 was derived. For example, New Cat 5 is 10 K a night more than 1-4 and the package is 60K more–6 nights times 10k. Similarly New Cat 6 is 20K a night more than 5 and the package is 120K more. New Cat 7 is 10K a night more and the package is 60K more.
I completely agree with you that the new packages are based on peak pricing. I just don’t think that Marriott wants to piss off that many customers so I think they’re more likely to map based on standard pricing.
I certainly hope so. I was just complimenting you on how that table nicely shows the logic behind the new TP pricing!
You are guessing that old Cat 6 will map to new Cat 5 based on the point levels. I believe old Cat 6 will map to new Cat 4 based on the fact that the majority of old Cat 6 hotels are in new Cat 4.
https://frequentmiler.com/2018/06/28/new-marriott-award-chart-analysis/
My in-going assumption is that Marriott is going to try not to piss off too many customers, so I don’t think old cat 6 to new cat 4 is very likely. That said, if you look at the Peak pricing mapping that I added to the bottom of the post, it does line up that way.
Right now if we book a hotel lower than the category of our cert, we get refunded the difference, ie 30k, 60k. What do you think will happen if we downgrade after 9/18 to a hotel lower in category? Refund of 120k? Or maybe the system will map into the existing price differences?
If they map the current categories to new categories like I described above, then I think that in the scenario you described they would refund the difference in the new package pricing
Tried ordering a 7 day travel package on Saturday and spent over an hour on phone with Marriott rewards who attempted to combine my points with my wife’s points so that we had enough to purchase a package. However, the agent could not complete the transfer because the system was down. Said to try calling back on Sunday, which I then spent another 2 hours on the phone Sunday with multiple reps and eventually a supervisor, however they still could not get more than 50,000 points transferred from one account to the other, which is what I needed to purchase a package. Long story short, it was not a fun weekend and I had to end the call requesting that the supervisor call me back when the point transfer could be completed. With the way things have gone, I have little confidence they will call back and I’m very concerned that I’m going to miss out on purchasing a package before the 18th. What a complete fiasco.
How much more points do you need over 50000? You may transfer SPG points instead, with no limits at all (convert marriott to SPG, transfer between you and your wife’s SPG accounts than convert SPG back to marriot) , but it will take 2 to 3 days typically. Want to give it a try?
Thanks for the suggestion. I am trying to do as you suggested, however, I hope all the transfers complete before the 18th. Transferring from Marriott to SPG was instantaneous. However combining SPG points into a single account says it may take up to 5 days.
Have you been following the travel package thread on FT today by chance? Some “strong” speculation that on the 18th existing packages will be refunded to 1-4 certs and the additional points on top of that refunded (if u had a higher cert) And if u want to buy back up u do it under the new chart. Obviously that goes a bit against what Marriott has been saying in regards to mapping but …..
Your thoughts?
I noticed that too. It sounds simple and pretty fair actually. It would be pretty funny if that’s what Marriott ends up doing. Because amid the endless speculation and theories and hyper/over analyzing (Comprehensive 5 Possible Outcomes!!!) that’s been put into this by bloggers everywhere, I don’t think anyone offered this option. But you have to fill that 24/7 miles/points news cycle with something.
What refund calculation are they speculating will be used?
I hadn’t seen that. That would be a great way to go, but as you said it goes against the latest stuff Marriott has been saying. Did someone get that from a source or just suggest it as a good idea?
The post is relaying information from a marriott cs rep which usually I would take woth a grain if salt but this rep is so specific that i tend to give it some credibility.
If this is true i dont like that i feel it kinda locks out ppl wanting to redeem for spg under the “old chart”.
The source was a CSR at Marriotts call center, I would not give it much credence, especially after what VFTW was told last week
A rep from India Marriott call center. Doesn’t carry much weight from me 🙂
OK, I’ve read the Flyertalk post. I’m with you. Normally I wouldn’t even consider believing the source, but the solution makes so much sense that it almost has to be true.
Well, now I need help to see what this looks like. Ive got 2 unattached
“While we plan on sharing the full conversion chart on 8/18, I can let you know that all existing certificates will convert to similarly valued categories after that date.” So this is a false statement? Converting to Cat 1-4 and refunding points for higher cats completely contradicts today’s statement.
agreed, there is no way they can do this and hold true to that statement. Until this point I’ve been very happy with everything MR has done (I’ll be LTPP through Marriott stays) but this one thing will sour it for me and I only have two certs outstanding… If that is the solution they could have laid it out at the end of June with the other changes.
Yes, this solution does make sense (and most on FT agree). All unattached Floaters get downgraded to new Cat 1-4 with the appropriate amount of points refunded. Then if you want a higher level you buy up under the new point scheme. If you cancel an existing reservation that has a TP attached it is downgraded to new cat 1-4 and the appropriate amount of points are refunded. Make a new reservation after 8/18 and you pay under the new TP pricing schedule. Agrees with Starwood Lurker first posts and subsequent postings.
What would be the appropriate amount of points refunded? old cat 1-5 for 150k pts, cat 6 for 180k pts? That would be the “potential huge win” situation Greg predicted before. https://frequentmiler.com/2018/06/20/potential-huge-win-with-marriott-travel-packages-before-august/
I current have one cat 1-5 certificate and have been debating between upgrade it to cat 8 or get a 2nd cat 1-5 (would like to go for a cat 8 but only have 100k spg pts left). If the above is highly possible, I’d just go for a 2nd cat 1-5.
Old cat 1-5 would convert directly to new cat 1-4 and no points would be refunded. Each category higher than 1-5 would result in a refund of the difference in price between the category purchased price and the cat 1-5 price.
So people thinking to use the old cat 8-9 certificate for the new cat 6-7 hotels but without a specific plan before 8/18 will be out of luck I guess.