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For better or worse (mostly worse), Marriott’s Peak and Off-Peak award pricing will begin September 14 2019. At first glance, it doesn’t look too bad. Category 1,2 and 3 award prices only vary 2,500 points per night from standard. And category 4 and 5 award prices only vary 5,000 points per night from standard. Categories 6 and 7, though, see bigger swings: 10K points per night from standard. And category 8 jumps to 15K points per night from standard.
The picture looks quite different if you calculate the percent difference from standard pricing. Here we can see that category 1 hotels actually have the largest swing in pricing on a percentage basis (33%):
Of course, all of this could be good news if you find off-peak awards when you need them. Marriott says that there will be an “even distribution between Off-Peak and Peak rates portfolio wide.” But that means that some hotels can be mostly peak year-around while others are mostly off-peak. More likely, though, peak and off-peak designations will closely match room prices. When room prices are unusually high, we’ll see peak rates. When room prices are unusually low, we’ll see off-peak rates. The net effect is that it will be harder to get outsized value from your points.
Free Night Certificates Devalued
The worst thing about peak/off-peak pricing, in my opinion, is that it will be harder to use the free night certificates earned from credit cards. Here’s a summary of the various Marriott credit cards currently available:
As you can see above, several credit cards offer free night certificates worth up to 35K points per night and two offer certificates worth up to 50K points per night. Before Peak pricing was introduced, this meant that you could always book category 5 hotels with the 35K certs and category 6 hotels with the 50K certs. Now, those same certificates will only be good for category 4 and 5 hotels, respectively, during peak pricing. Boo.
Off-peak pricing, on the other hand, could be good for those with 50K certs. If you’re lucky enough to find a category 7 hotel priced off-peak, you should be able to use your 50K cert to book it. The same is not true with 35K certs. Category 6 off-peak pricing only drops the rate to 40K. That’s not enough of a drop to book with a 35K cert.
PointSavers to the rescue?
Marriott offers lower award rates at certain hotels at certain times. They call these “PointSavers”. This chart shows PointSavers rates next to regular rates:
PointSavers rates are available only with select hotels during set dates. To find which hotels are participating, go to the Marriott PointSavers page, scroll down to “Participating Hotels with Available Dates” and click USA or Worldwide.
The PointSavers chart is interesting to this discussion only because category 6 off-peak PointSaver awards cost 35,000 points per night. Good luck finding such a thing. If you do find one, though, it should be bookable with a 35K certificate.
Note that any hotel that’s available both as off-peak and PointSavers probably has dirt cheap cash prices at the same time. That means that you’ll get lousy value for your certificate. You will almost certainly get better value booking a standard category 5 award night or a peak category 4 night.
Travel Package Certificates Retain Value
Marriott offers an option to redeem points for travel packages, also known as hotel + air packages. The idea is that you can spend a fixed number of Marriott points to get two things: a bunch of airline miles and a 7 night stay certificate. Please see Travel Packages in our Complete Guide to Marriott Bonvoy for a complete analysis.
In most cases, in my opinion, travel packages are a bad deal. But, if you already have a certificate (maybe you bought one before they devalued last year?), it has just become more valuable (more precisely, it has retained value). Unlike credit card free night certificates, travel package certificates are tied to the hotel’s category not the award price. As a result, your certificate can be used during peak pricing.
I still have a category 6 seven night certificate in my account (details here). Currently, category 6 hotels cost 50K points per night. Soon, they’ll go as high as 60K points per night during peak pricing. With my certificate, I’ll still be able to book a stay even if some or all of the nights are priced at 60K.
5 ways to protect yourself from peak pricing
- Book at standard rates before September 14 2019. If you have the points and/or free night certificates available, go ahead and book now for stays as far off as next summer. Read the cancellation policy carefully to make sure that you can make changes or cancel for free. Note that if you later make changes, you will be charged at the new rate.
- Book before 9/14 as a Points Advance. If you don’t have enough points (or you don’t have your free night certificate yet), you can book up to 5 Points Advance reservations before 9/14 at standard rates. Later, if you find that the award is at Peak pricing, you can call to apply your points and/or certificates based on standard pricing. This capability will no longer be true for Points Advance bookings made 9/14 and later. For more about Points Advance bookings, please see our Complete Guide to Marriott Bonvoy.
- Use your travel certificates wisely. Travel certificates are based on the hotel’s category, not the hotel’s current award price. You can maximize value by booking your stay during Peak pricing.
- Book early. Marriott plans to reassign Peak and Off-Peak designations monthly. It is likely that when hotels start to fill up, the remaining standard rooms for those dates will be set to Peak pricing. Therefore, it is likely that standard pricing will be more readily available if you book many months in advance.
- Search monthly. With the new peak/off-peak pricing, award rates will fluctuate over time. Even if you’ve already made an award booking, it’s a good idea to redo the award search each month. This way, if the price drops (from peak to standard, or standard to off-peak), you can re-book at the lower rate.
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here’s how you survive it- switch your loyalty! go to hilton or hyatt like i am working on doing. screw this peak offpeak BS
[…] I really like the Inn at Bay Harbor, in northern Michigan. The standard award price for this hotel is 35K points, which makes it a perfect place to spend those 35K free night certificates that come annually with a number of Marriott credit cards (at least until Peak pricing ruins everything). […]
I’m titanium right now but I’m torn on whether to even go for platinum this year. I came in through SPG and Marriott has been consistently awful as a loyalty program. Most hotels are ok on loyalty benefits, particularly the legacy Starwood hotels, but Bonvoy just makes me feel like the company just doesn’t care about me or want my business. I’m inclined to reciprocate.
This to me dramatically reduces the value of the credit card annual fee payment for the cards that provide a 35k certificate. They’ve taken away the ability to use them for category 5s during the peak periods, but there is no corresponding possibility of using them for a higher category during off-peak. To not make it commensurate is a serious devaluation to me. I would potentially be ok with losing significant opportunity to use the certificates for category 5s if there was a corresponding opportunity potentially to use them occasionally for category 6, but there isn’t — it’s only the very rare pointsaver cat 6. Category 4s are not worth keeping a card for , to me at least. Yeah, I can possibly use them but I find the jump from category 4 properties to category 5 properties to be significant. This stinks.
Great points, additionally I imagine that the times you can find that rare Cat.6 pointsaver that the equivalent cash price will also be off peak pricing as well perhaps not very desirable time . I.e. Aspen during August, SE Asia during monsoon season, Oregon/Washington Coast during winter.
So yeah now with peak pricing the ability to break even or stay at outsized value is like trying to use the Annual airline credit for air travel incendentials w/ one airline with Amex Gld/PT cards.
Doubt that I will renew especially with $125 AF.
[…] Peak and off-peak award pricing coming September 14 2019. For my complete analysis, see: Surviving Marriott Peak & Off-Peak Award Pricing. […]
“even distribution between Off-Peak and Peak rates portfolio wide” is a dishonest way to bs customers. If we were hotel rooms, then we’d care about even distribution, but we are not, we’re people trying to book hotel rooms, and by the very definition of the “peak season”, we’re much more likely to want the room in that season, which is now higher priced. The correct distribution to talk about is the distribution of rooms WE WANT, not the distribution of rooms portfolio wide. So unless your out-of-town grandma happens to die on a rainy season where you need a room, this is a loss. Can’t wait to see how Marriott is going to tell us about its upcoming changes designed to benefit their customers.
this is Marriot version of dynamic pricing, just like the airlines. just pathetic
I agree I canceled my Hotel cards @ their Renewal their making $$ . So why give a Deal but if they can con the banks take it too. .. I need Airlines not hotel stuff it’s usually a bad location for me ..
CHEERs
What’s pathetic about it?