It’s impossible to predict our miles & points future without considering COVID-19. In 2020, the pandemic led to drastic changes to travel and spending which, in turn, led to big changes related to miles & points. In 2020, loyalty programs extended elite status and/or made it easier to obtain. Airlines and hotel programs extended validity of expiring points and certificates. Airlines stopped charging for changes to both paid and award tickets. Credit card companies offered some of the biggest signup bonuses we’ve ever seen, and have encouraged spend through many promotional spend bonuses.
Predictions for 2021 wouldn’t make much sense without considering them in the context of the pandemic. Below, I’ve made predictions about the course of the pandemic in 2021, how it will continue to impact travel, and how loyalty and rewards credit cards may be affected. Predictions are grouped by quarter…
2021 Q1 (January, February, March)
Travel Rules
The virus will continue to rage worldwide. Thanks to COVID vaccines, though, we’ll start to see some previously closed to us destinations open up to those who have proof of vaccination. I expect we’ll see this first in places that currently allow tourists to enter with a negative COVID test. In those cases, a new option will be to show proof of vaccination. For example, I expect Hawaii and some Caribbean islands to open up to travel from the US mainland in this way.
Travel Trends
Despite these newly opened destinations, the travel slump will continue throughout the quarter. While the pandemic continues to rage in the US, people will continue to prefer driving trips and independent lodging such as stand-alone rental homes, RVs, and camp sites.
Loyalty Programs
Due to travel remaining subdued, this quarter we’ll see more of the same from loyalty programs and credit cards: more point promotions, more opportunities to earn or extend elite status, and new fantastic credit card signup offers.
2021 Q2 (April, May, June)
Travel Rules
This quarter I predict that Canada and most of Europe will open to US travelers with proof of vaccination. We may see the same from other countries like Japan, but I expect that many countries will still be off limits to Americans until late Q3.
Travel Trends
Despite international travel options starting to open, I expect that very few will travel overseas this quarter. Airlines will see a small uptick in leisure travelers, but still very little business travel. Towards the end of Q2 people will be itching to get away. Hotels in resort destinations will start to fill up.
Loyalty Programs
For most of Q2, I expect to see the same as before: more point promotions, easier elite status, big credit card bonuses, etc. Towards the end of Q2, though, I expect that hotel chains will forecast profits as summer lodging bookings spike. As a result, hotel promos will start to decline except for those that encourage international travel. Airlines, though, will continue to forecast losses and will introduce some of their most exciting promotions in Q2 to encourage more summer travel.
2021 Q3 (July, August, September)
Travel Rules
US citizens will once again be able to travel to most of the world but with proof of vaccination required in most cases.
Travel Trends
Domestic leisure travel will increase significantly. With the combination of warm weather and more people being vaccinated, COVID infection rates in the US will be way down. People will feel safe traveling again, but most US residents will stay in North America and nearby islands. Business travel will tick up a bit. Demand for domestic lodging, especially at resorts and near national parks will hit all-time highs.
Loyalty Programs
Airlines will be more and more desperate to convince people to fly at pre-pandemic levels. They’ll offer cash sales, award sales, mileage bonuses, easier paths to elite status, etc. Following the trend that I expect to start in Q2, hotel programs will offer lackluster promotions for domestic travel, but we may see some generous promotions for overseas stays. Credit card signup bonuses will start to settle down from mid-pandemic highs (except for some airline card bonuses that will be crazy-high).
2021 Q4 (October, November, December)
Travel Rules
The virus will still rage in some countries and the US will continue to ban travel from those countries.
Travel Trends
International travel will tick up but nowhere near pre-pandemic highs. Business travel will increase but also not to pre-pandemic levels (maybe never!). Lodging rates and preferences will start to settle back to pre-pandemic patterns but many will continue to prefer Airbnb style rentals for conveniences like kitchens, washer & dryer units, etc.
Loyalty Programs
Loyalty programs will be adjusting to the new normal. I expect to see experimentation where programs try different incentives than usual because throwing points around isn’t sustainable without greatly increasing award prices.
Wrap Up
This post wasn’t my usual list of specific miles & points predictions. Instead, I tried to describe the likely lay of the land going forward in 2021. It will be very hard, if not impossible, to go back to this post later to count which predictions were right or wrong (as I did with my 2020 predictions), but maybe I’ll follow this up with a concrete prediction list so that I can do so.
What do you think of the predictions here? Did I get any obviously wrong? Please comment below.
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too much faith in vaccines…engineered 90-95% efficacy….ONE person died in Pfizer/Moderna trials. Same time in USA – 70,000-94,000 died…
trials done in Jul-Oct…peak immune system…..
stop promoting C19 vaccines…[though you are just making predictions]
If you’re going to be an anti-vaxxer at least state the facts. 13 people actually died during the Moderna trials (6 received vaccine, 7 placebo). None of the deaths are from the vaccine or attributable to the vaccine
—www.lifesitenews.com/news/13-people-died-during-modernas-covid-vaccine-trial
Only 1 death attributed to COVID
Pfizer – NOBODY DIED.
No Covid-19–associated deaths were observed.
—www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
I do have my facts straight.
replace front dashes with https://
oh and it sounds like you like labeling people. I’m not anti-vax. I’m a realist. And there is A LOT of deception. I happily took Yellow Fever, Typhoid, MMR, etc…15 years ago. But if I knew what I know now…
FLU shots DO NOT EQUAL MMR, Polio, Measles, etc…coronaviruses are diff…but something magical about the “vaccine” word. Guess your under the spell.
I largely agree with you, though I think it probably will not be as quick. Vaccine roll out has been slow so far. There has been discussion about the new administration using the Defense Production Act to speed up the process, but even with that it will take time to get vaccines into arms. I predict more long lines, missed second doses, problems with getting the second dose of the correct vaccine, etc. Once the vaccination rates start increasing, people will get restless and start letting their guard down, and I think we will see fourth and fifth waves (though hopefully not as bad as the current third wave we are in).
I think Glenn made some great points above about the proof of vaccination. Right now you just get a little paper card that says it is from the CDC and people write on it. So-called “vaccination passports” need to be less prone to forgery.
While I definitely would love to travel again, it will be a gradual process. I am between vaccinations 1 & 2, and once I get my second dose I will probably check on a vacation property which has sat vacant for far too long. Q2 will mainly be travel to see family, if they get vaccinated by then. I do not see myself rushing to major cities in Europe and Asia for a long while. Plus I was one of the many people to get dogs during the pandemic, so the 125-150K travel I did in years past will not return; at best it will be half that.
What is 125-150K travel? Points/miles/dollars?
Butt-in-seat miles flown. I have been Delta Diamond for a while. But it was not sustainable even before the pandemic. This was almost all leisure travel. Being home so much during 2020 made me reassess my priorities. Plus I keep accumulating more miles than I use, and they keep getting devalued. Top tier airline status has been fun but its time to let go.
NK3, I am a saver too, with millions of miles/points always devaluing, not much in status. I am only a leisure traveller. Almost always Southwest for local (maybe 6 to 8 round-trips a year and business class for international (4 or so big trips).
I am an AA Platinum for life (3 million miler) which was once the top level, now it’s not worth much at all (a free snack?), but I have only paid for 2 trips in total on AA: one was my first in 1990 which got me started collecting miles and another trip in 2001 for $99. All other miles are from credit cards.
The only reason I play this game is so that I can always travel Business (for a couple it’s often better than First) and have a selection of airlines/partners to choose from. If it were to get 2% cash back I doubt I’d do it at all. I churn everything I can, essentially “buying” miles and points very cheaply. And all my annual fees are paid for from Brokerage or Bank account bonuses, with a profit in most years.
Also I have 3 children and 3 grandchildren so that can eat up a lot of miles/points very quickly. I have not been on a plane in 2020 at all, it had been planned as my BIG YEAR of travel – 4 months away in total but that went bust. I (plus P2) am sitting on 26 individual hotel “free nights” plus 3 Marriott 7-night packages all expiring in June and August and December.
All hopes are on 3rd and 4th quarter, but even with vaccines one needs somewhere to go. Not much use if most places are closed.
Here is a wild US prediction.
New administration with people with a sense of urgency address the incompetent vaccine roll-out (we should have had close to 30M doses administered by now and have less than 3M), i.e. we adopt the UK approach of more people with the first dose vs. holding half back now, we get funding to local distribution which is currently a huge gap etc.
Rules will be changed or circumvented and vaccines will be bought by corporations to accelerate critical business travel needs, or protecting key executives. This will then extend to key airports and airlines, so instead of COVID tests at the airport you can get vaccinated prior to departure (with maybe a prior 3hr window required to minimize liability from side-effects).
Basically – all rules are off when it comes to this crisis, and never underestimate the US to break the ‘rules’ and use capitalist solutions.
Covid vaccines at the airport immediately prior to departure do not make sense. The Pfizer and Moderna are mRNA vaccines. The mRNA tells our cells to make a COVID-19 protein, which our immune system realizes it is foreign and makes specific B & T lymphocytes to fight. This process does not occur immediately.
The Pfizer vaccine has shown 95% effectiveness in preventing symptomatic Covid infection 1 week after the second dose (which is given 3 weeks after the first). After 1 dose it is over 50% effective. The Moderna vaccine is 94% effective 2 weeks after the second dose (which is given 4 weeks after the first). Giving the vaccine at the airport, therefore, does not follow the science and will not occur.
The 3 hour window for side effects also does not make sense. Right now many sites will have you wait for about 15 minutes after the vaccine to make sure you do not have an immediate allergic reaction to one of the components of the vaccine (which is rare but has definitely been seen). In the couple days after the vaccine, especially after the second dose, you may develop reactogenicity symptoms, like chills, muscle aches, and fever, as the body develops an immune response. These are relatively common but usually mild to moderate. If you get the vaccine at the airport, wait 3 hours and then fly to Europe, you may have a fever when you get there.
As a side note, the UK method of prioritizing the first dose has not been tested. We fast tracked trials with a specific dosing regimen. I am not saying what the UK is doing will not work, but we do not have evidence to back it up.
I really hope SW brings back the point conversion option. That was a fantastic feature.
Its very hard at this point to predict the rate at which vaccinations in the US will change perceptions of the US and allow some to travel. Also we have no idea what “proof of vaccination” will be or how it will avoid being faked (making it useless). Right now the rate of vaccination is such that it would take a decade to vaccinate enough people to really matter. The assumption is that the rate of vaccination will pick up, but how will that happen exactly? Nobody knows. The lines of 80+ yo people sitting out overnight in the cold only to be turned away in Florida aren’t a good sign. “I heard they had some at Walgreen’s on 4th!”
Anyways, we’re making plans for some travel–a place nearby in July that we can go even if the virus is still raging (separate entrance, separate A/C, cooking facilities, etc) and a trip to Hawaii in November if things are running by then.
I’m agreeing with this except that I would stretch it out into Q1 & Q2 of 2022. It would be nice to have everything fit nicely into each quarter but I think everything will flow in and out as everything progresses.
One thing I’ve been saying all along is there will be a time in the future that will be similar to the roaring 20’s. Yes things look bad now but those working are just saving their money, those that lost businesses will start over and those who are laid off will get jobs. Everyone wants to get away right now and when given the green light, it’s going to be wild.
Couldn’t agree more!
You’re leaning heavily into the pent-up demand argument for a big uptick in travel post Q2. The counter argument is a much longer recovery due to economic damage done during the pandemic. Personally, the pent-up demand argument applies to me since I was one of the lucky ones who didn’t suffer economically and I really, really want to hit the road. Perhaps there will be a split in travel recovery between the “Zoom class” of people who were able to keep working and actual face-to-face workers.
Your predictions paint a realistic scenario. I’m wondering how quickly many 3rd world countries will drop COVID test and quarantine requirements and and embrace proof of vaccination if they haven’t had much experience with these vaccines in their own country yet. I can imagine situations where some countries still require testing for everyone for quite awhile, just because. I unfortunately predict multi-country travel will be an ever changing patchwork of testing rules, different processes and frustrations.
We’re on track to follow your predictions. My husband’s and my 2021 travel plans ( all presuming we’re vaccinated):
May – road trip to NYC for our daughter’s law school graduation & her birthday
July – Long road trip to see our son in Colorado
Early October – fly to see another son who lives in Seattle.
Late October – attend a conference in NYC
December – fly our family of 9 to New Orleans for a holiday trip.
We plan to stay with our kids and in hotels, no airbnbs or RVs this year