Greg’s 2020 predictions: More right than wrong (sort of)

Each year I make points and miles predictions for the coming year.  At the start of 2020, Nick and Stephen joined in as well and so we had three sets of 2020 predictions.  No one should be surprised that most of our collective predictions proved wrong.  COVID-19 changed everything.  Still, it’s worth reviewing our predictions:

• Nick summarized his results here: Nick predicts….almost nothing correctly in 2020.  Nick got .5 out of 7 correct.  He avoided 0 out of 7 with one partially correct prediction.
• Stephen summarized his results here: Stephen’s 2020 Predictions – Here’s How They Went.  Stephen got 1 out of 7 correct.

In this post, I’ll review my predictions which can be found here: Welcome to 2020! Here’s what will happen next…  If you look only at my unique predictions, you’ll see that I didn’t do much better than anyone else.  I got only 1 out of 5 correct.  Luckily for me, I also made predictions in response to Nick and Stephen’s predictions.  And, with these predictions I was mostly right.  Why?  Most of my predictions were cynical statements such as “it won’t happen.”  Those cynical going into 2020 got things right.

Let’s take a look at the details…

Greg’s Predictions based on Nick’s Predictions

1. Nick wrote: At least one chain eliminates resort fees. I responded: “it won’t [happen] in 2020.”  I was right.
   
2. Nick wrote: American Airlines becomes a transfer partner (with Citi).  I responded: “I want this to happen, but my bet is that it won’t.”  I was right.
3. Nick wrote: Loyalty programs will become more aggressive in targeting “gamers”.  I wrote: “Yep. This is likely.”  I was wrong.
4. Nick wrote: We’ll see another credit card offer an “entertainment” bonus category.  I responded: “I’m sure this will happen eventually, but I’d put the probability of it happening in 2020 as low.”  I was right.
5. Nick wrote: Amex will offer an awesome new benefit on the Platinum cards.  I responded: “Yep, I bet they will add at least one new benefit.”  I was partially right. Amex added lots of temporary benefits, but no significant permanent benefits.
6. Nick wrote: Capital One will shake things up with its rumored Ultra-premium card.  I responded: “Nope.  I’m betting against this one even while I hope it’s true.”  I was right.
7. Nick wrote: Chase or Citi will have a $150-250 card.  I responded: “I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll see an Ultimate Rewards card or Citi ThankYou card in this range.”  I was right.

Sub-Score: 5.5 correct out of 7

Greg’s Predictions based on Stephen’s Predictions

1. Stephen wrote: Capital One To Add Virgin Atlantic As Travel Partner.  I responded: “This is very likely.”  I was wrong.
2. Stephen wrote: Amex Membership Rewards To Transfer To JetBlue On A 1:1 Basis.  I responded: “Yep, very likely.”  I was wrong.
3. Stephen wrote: Free Breakfast For IHG Spire Elite Members.  I responded: “My bet is that it won’t happen.”  I was right.
4. Stephen wrote: Citi To Allow Card Referrals.  I responded: “…unlikely… in 2020”.  I was right.
5. Stephen wrote: Chase And/Or Amex To Increase Referral Limits.  I responded: “Nope. This won’t happen.” I was right.
6. Stephen wrote: Chase To Remove Priority Pass Restaurant Access.  I responded: “Chase will continue to offer the good version of Priority Pass membership.”  I was right.
7. Stephen wrote: Marriott To Offer Poor Promotions.  I responded: “Is the sun likely to come up tomorrow? Yes, this will happen.” I was right.  See Stephen’s post for details of why we think this was correct.

Sub-Score: 5 correct out of 7

And then my own predictions…

1. I wrote: Chase won’t increase the Sapphire Reserve annual fee.  I was proven wrong almost immediately after publication when Chase increased the annual fee to $550.  Wrong.
2. Amex will increase the Hilton Aspire annual fee to $550.  This didn’t happen.  Wrong.
3. Amex will increase the Bonvoy Brilliant annual fee to $550. This didn’t happen.  Wrong.
4. Bank of America will offer point transfers to miles from their Premium Rewards card. This didn’t happen.  Wrong.
5. Hilton won’t introduce a significant new elite perk.  Right!

Sub-Score: 1 correct out of 5

Wrap Up

If you look only at my own predictions, the results are very bad: 1 right out of 5 predictions.  However, if you include my predictions in response to Nick and Stephen’s predictions, my score improves tremendously: 11.5 out of 19.  That’s about 60% correct.  In other words, I was more right than wrong.  I could crow about how impressive it was to be more than 50% right in 2020 given the unexpected worldwide pandemic, but I won’t.  I was right a lot only because I was often cynical about expected changes.  Predicting that less would happen in 2020 was lucky not prescient.

Stay tuned for 2021 predictions where we will show you our miles & points future, 60.53% guaranteed.

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