Marriott caused quite a stir in the points and miles world a couple of weeks ago when it raised the award prices of many of its most aspirational properties into the stratosphere, with the cost of some properties almost doubling overnight.
At same time, it appeared that Marriott had also raised the cap on each tier of its “secret award chart,” meaning that the maximum points that it charges for each award level had gone up by ~5-10%.
Given that, it seemed like it was high time to redo our Reasonable Redemption Value for Marriott Bonvoy points. Given all that’s happened, they must have plummeted in value, right?
Not really.
With our newest analysis, we’ve found that the average value of Marriott points has actually slightly gone up compared to the last time we took a look at it in 2024, from 0.70 cents per point to 0.76 cents per point.
Background
When collecting points and miles, it’s always good to have a general idea of what points are worth. Let’s say, for example, that you have the opportunity to either earn 1,000 Hyatt points or 2,000 Marriott points. Which should you go for? If you don’t know what the points are worth, you’d likely go for the Marriott points. But, in our analyses we’ve found Hyatt points to be worth more than twice as much as Marriott points. Therefore, on average, 1,000 Hyatt points are worth more than 2,000 Marriott points. In this post, you’ll find my best current estimate of the redemption value of Marriott points.
To see our estimates across many programs, see this post: Reasonable Redemption Values (RRVs).
Methodology
In order to determine the value of Marriott points, we collected real-world cash prices and point prices. As we’ve done previously, we examined a number of major hotel markets in the U.S.: Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, Hawaii, Las Vegas, Miami Beach, New York City, Orlando, and Seattle. Within each market, we identified the first three search results with a guest rating of 4 or better, and we recorded both cash and award prices for three dates each: a weekday, a weekend, and a holiday.
- Why U.S. only? U.S. consumers are known to spend most of their points and miles on domestic travel. Since the majority of this blog’s audience resides in the U.S. we opted for a U.S. centric view of point values.
- Why Guest Ratings? The goal wasn’t to find the 3 best Marriott hotels in each market. Instead, the goal was to find 3 Marriott-bookable hotels that are very popular. Which ones are people really likely to book? By using a combination of Marriott’s default sorting and by picking only well-rated hotels, we think it’s reasonable to assume that many members would pick these hotels.
- Which paid rates were selected? We always picked the best fully refundable paid rate shown on Marriott’s website, but without applying any discounts like AAA, military, government, etc. For this analysis, we usually selected Marriott’s Member Flexible Rate.
- Which specific dates did we use?
- Weekday: Wednesday June 11, 2025
- Weekend: Friday-Sunday June 13 – 15, 2025
- Holiday Weekend: Friday-Mon May 23 – May 26, 2025 (Memorial Day Weekend)
Calculation Approach
When we calculate Cents Per Point (CPP), we want to account for taxes and fees, as well as points that would be earned on paid stays (and conversely wouldn’t be earned on award stays). The calculation is based on the following terms:
- Base Cash Rate: This is the hotel room rate before taxes and fees.
- Total Cash Rate: This is the total amount, including taxes and fees, that would be paid if booking a hotel’s cash rate.
- Resort Fee: This is a fee that is imposed by many hotels above and beyond any required taxes. This goes by different names at different hotels: Resort fee, Destination charge, Founders fee, etc.
- Points Per Dollar Earned: The number of points per dollar earned by non-elite members on paid stays. For example, Hyatt members earn 5 points per dollar, Hilton, IHG, and Marriott members earn 10 points per dollar (at most hotels), etc.
- Points Earned on Cash Rate: This is the number of points you would earn if you paid the cash rate. The calculation for this is: (Base Cash Rate) x (Points Per Dollar Earned). For this calculation, our default approach is to assume that the traveler does not have elite status (elite members earn more points per dollar).
- Point Price: The number of points required to book a night at the hotel
- Cents Per Point (CPP): This is the value you get per point when using your points instead of cash to pay for a stay.
Hotel Programs that Waive Resort Fees on Award Stays
Hilton, Hyatt, and Wyndham waive resort fees when you book stays using points or free night certificates. For these chains, the resort fee does not have to be considered separately from the Total Cash Rate (which includes the resort fee). So, the CPP calculation is as follows:
CPP = Total Cash Rate ÷ [Point Price + Points Earned on Cash Rate]
Hotel Programs that Charge Resort Fees on Award Stays
IHG, Marriott, and many other hotel programs impose resort fees on award stays. For these chains, the resort fee must be specifically taken into account in the CPP calculation. We do that by subtracting it out of the Total Cash Rate. The CPP calculation is as follows:
CPP = [Total Cash Rate – Resort Fee] ÷ [Point Price + Points Earned on Cash Rate]
Results
Point Value
| Analysis Date: | 2/2/25 | 6/21/24 | 4/7/23 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point Value (Median) | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| Point Value (Mean) | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| Cash Price (Median) | $423 | $425 | $419 |
| Cash Price (Mean) | $444 | $450 | $462 |
| Award Price (Median) | 50,000 | 52,500 | 51,500 |
| Award Price (Mean) | 52,348 | 54,067 | 53,244 |
| Minimum Point Value | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| Maximum Point Value | 1.81 | 1.3 | 1.65 |
The median observed point value for the latest analysis was 0.76 cents per point. This means that half of the observed results offered equal or better point value and half offered equal or worse value. Another way to think about it is that without trying to cherry pick good awards, you have a 50/50 chance of getting 0.76 cents or better value from your Marriott points when booking free night awards.
In our last data collection in June 2024, the median cents per point value was 0.70. This time, since the median went up to 0.76, we’ve revised the Reasonable Redemption Value for Bonvoy points to 0.76 cents each.
Pick your own point value
| Analysis Date: | 2/2/25 | 6/21/24 | 4/7/23 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50th Percentile (Median) | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| 60th Percentile | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| 70th Percentile | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| 80th Percentile | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.95 |
| 90th Percentile | 1.01 | 0.94 | 1.15 |
When we publish Reasonable Redemption Values of points (RRVs), we conservatively pick the middle value, or the 50th percentile. The idea is that just by randomly picking hotels to use your points, you have a 50/50 chance of getting this value or better. But what if you cherry-pick awards? Many people prefer to hold onto their points until they find good value uses for them. If that’s you, then you may want to use the table above to pick your own point value. For example, if you think that you’ll hold out for the best 10% value awards, then pick the 90th percentile. If you cherry-pick a bit, but not that much, you might want to use the 70th percentile (for example).
We’re guessing that most cherry-pickers will land around the 80th percentile: 0.92 cents per point. Another way of saying it is that those folks who cherry-pick good value awards can count on getting around 0.92 cents per point value or better.
For those who do the most extreme cherry-picking, the data here is good news as well. The 90th percentile had previously stood at 0.94 cents per point, but it has now risen to just over a penny (1.01).
Reasonable Redemption Value: 0.76 Cents Per Point
Our Reasonable Redemption Value (RRV) for Marriott points was previously set to 0.70 cents per point, but we have now raised it to 0.76 cents per point. RRV’s are intended to be the point at which it is reasonable to get that much value or better for your points. Therefore, we believe that the median observed value for is a good choice for our RRV.
- Reasonable Redemption Value for Marriott: 0.76 cents per point
- Reasonable Redemption Value for those who cherry pick awards: 0.92 cents per point
Overvaluing vs. Undervaluing Points
There is no perfect way to estimate the value of points. Decisions we made here in some ways overvalue points and in some ways undervalue points. The hope is that these things roughly offset each other.
Factors that cause us to undervalue points
- With hotel programs that offer 4th Night Free Awards (IHG, with some credit cards), or 5th Night Free Awards (Hilton & Marriott), or award discounts (Wyndham), we do not consider the point savings in our analyses.
- With hotel programs that offer free parking on award stays to top-tier elites (Hyatt), we do not factor this in.
Factors that cause us to overvalue points
- We do not use discount rates (other than member rates) in our analyses. In real-life, many people book hotels cheaper (and sometimes far cheaper) by using AAA rates, government & military rates, senior rates, etc.
- We do not use hotel promotional rates. Often, individual hotels have deals such as “Stay 2 Nights, Get 1 Night Free” which can greatly reduce the cost of a stay.
- We do not use prepaid rates in our analyses. Sometimes these rates are significantly lower than refundable rates.
- We do not factor in rebates which can be earned from booking hotels through shopping portals.
- We do not factor in extra points earned on paid stays for those with elite status.
- We do not factor in rewards earned from credit card spend at hotels.
- We do not factor in hotel loyalty program promotions: Most promotions, but not all, only offer incentives for paid stays. We often see promos offering bonus points, double or triple points, free night awards, etc.
- With hotel programs that waive resort fees for top tier elites on paid stays (e.g. Hyatt), we do not factor this in.
Conclusion
Based on the latest analysis, we’ve changed our Marriott RRV to 0.76 cents per point. The idea is that you have an equal chance of getting that much value or more from your award stays.
This might seem bizarre to some folks who have seen the prices of their favorite hotels go up, or who have read numerous articles about the recent “devaluation.” Our RRV doesn’t necessarily disagree with any of that…there are certainly many properties that are much more expensive than they were last year.
However, when looking at a large swathe of properties throughout the US, we’re still seeing the median value hanging out in the same 0.7-0.8 range that it’s been at for the last three years. Bonvoy points may be worth much less at certain properties, but we’re not seeing the same thing program-wide – although that’s cold comfort to people who were stashing their points for an outsized redemption in the Maldives or at the JW Marriott Masai Mara.
For a complete list of Reasonable Redemption Values (and links to posts like this one), see: Reasonable Redemption Values (RRVs).
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I’ve been a Marriott elite for eight years. I must say I’ve taken many many bites of the apple. Marriott points are just bonus that I have also taken advantage of. Good loyalty program.
The numbers don’t lie (Bonvoy does, but that’s a separate issue).
When valued against actual money, I think hotel points actually increased in value during the post-pandemic travel disruptions and we’re seeing a return to the mean. This analysis shows a 10% INCREASE in the value of Marriott points AFTER the recent price adjustments — if you were to rerun the analysis with prices and redemptions just before the points increases you probably would have computed a value closer to 0.85.
If I recall, something similar happened with Hyatt — the RRV of their points increased to something over 2 cpp despite hotels shifting up in level, then dropped the next year closer to the historic value of 1.7 cpp. Is that correct?
If points are going to maintain their cash value then the number required for a redemption will need to rise (and fall) with the cash prices for rooms. If you expect redemption rates to stay the same during a period of high cash prices your baseline expectation is not a steady value but INCREASING value
Of course what is not considered is the significant cash price increases for Marriott properties which of course directly relates to the point value.
Did you actually read the article? This is based off the cash price of Marriott properties.
Yes. The analysis is correct, but Marriott’s cash price increases IMHO is what has kept the point value stable. But to the extent Marriott’s have increased their cash prices more than the competition it is still a devaluation.
That actually hasn’t been the case recently. If you look at the tables, we do track the median and mean for cash prices as well. Those have been essentially stable since our 2023 analysis. The increase that we saw was between 2020 and 2022, but it’s flattened out since then.
I stay at MMF rates and Where I normally go (at the same time of year, same place and often the same properties the price has gone up substantially. Of course it may be specific to my destinations. I also book 11-12 months in advance.
I also look at international destinations – Belgium and the rest of Europe which is not the subject of the article. But I do not doubt and appreciate frequent miler and your analysis.
Absolutely, we try to be very clear about what we’re looking at and what we’re not – and international destinations and special offer codes are two of the “nots.” We can just say that, for our samples, we haven’t seen significant change in median or mean cash rates over the last two years (ish).
I should have been clear in my post that I frequent European Marriott properties on the friends and family rate which have gone up at the properties I regularly have stayed at. I totally understand getting called out. I am normally more precise.
All of these calculations address only half of the equation. As a Titanium I earn 10 points per dollar at Marriott spend, plus a 75% bonus as Titanium plus 6 points per dollar paying my bill with the credit card. That’s 23 points per dollar. If points are worth $.07 each then my Marriott spend is getting $1.60 value per dollar (10 plus17 plus 6). I know, this only works for Marriott hotel spend, but that’s the only time I use the Marriott card. Otherwise, Chase points is best.
How about this instead?
23 points per dollar * 0.7 cents per point = 16 cents per dollar = 16 percent reward rate.
You are correct Fred. Haven’t had my morning coffee yet. Thank you
I’d bet the tails, especially the right tail, of the distribution have changed significantly. But your random sample is unlikely to include sufficient number of those properties in the right tail (e.g. in the 99 percentile) of the distribution, where people have gotten outsized value in the past.
Exactly… but he’s not going to focus on properties that people actually want to go to for analysis. He has to spin it as positive so he can pimp more cards.
Are there properties that you want to go to within the US (or outside for that matter) that fall outside of our observed range of .48 cents per point to 1.81 cents per point? Or I guess, since you feel like we’re overinflating values, properties that you feel like everyone wants to go to where the value is consistently less than .48 cents per point?
Without getting into what proportion of a “tail” should be in the analysis, it’s worth noting that we observed a range of 0.48 – 1.81 cents per point with a mean of .76 cents per point. Including more of the “right end of the tail” would actually make the mean points value increase slightly, since those would be properties of outsized value.
At ~150,000 points per night, the JW Marriott Masai Mara at ~$2700 per night averaged 1.8 cents per point. At the ~235,000 level that it’s hanging around at right now, it’s around 1.1 cents per point. Both of those values are in the range of what we observed this time, and both would be well into the 90th percentile.
Now, that’s a big increase in the price for that property, and it could be that the 90th percentile has gone drastically down in value over the last year if you broke it out and looked at it alone. However, since it’s the 90th percentile (so the very right end of the tail) and we observed both 1.1 and 1.8 this year in our samples, I wouldn’t imagine that changing which specific properties are included as part of that 90th percentile would change the analysis that much – there’s still some properties that you can get 1.8 cents per point this year (like you could at the JW Marriott last year) and the JW Marriott is still a relative “good” value when compared with most other Marriott awards.
I’m not trying to defend Marriott for raising the prices at certain high-end properties. It stinks. Simply saying that it probably doesn’t have much effect on what the median is, which is really what we’re trying to look at here.
My prior comment wasn’t directed at your methodology, which is fine for your goal of estimating the mean. The point I tried to make was that, for many of those readers of this blog who want to maximize the value of Marriott points, it’s more important to figure out the right tail of the distribution. They often redeem points in the 90th, the 95th, or even the 99th percentile. Marriott’s most recent change has much greater negative impact on them.
0.6¢ per point.
For those who look to “affordable” brands, this is probably a good number (or even a little high).
Would be interesting to see which properties are better point redemptions than before.
Trust your methods. Just figure there must be properties moving in a different direction than the ones I have been watching — which all seem to show devaluation.
I think you’ll find the properties of increasing value are from the points discussed in comments above – not that the point prices are decreasing, but that the point prices are holding steady while cash prices at those properties increase. That’s going to be more subtle to pick up since those of us focused on award travel start (and often end) our hotel searches looking at the point redemption options.
It would be interesting to do the exact same analysis several times spaced a few days apart. In my experience, Marriott points prices jump around a lot for a given property (independent of the cash price). The multiple properties and dates approach evens out some this variation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the the range of RRV over the multiple runs was greater than the 0.76 to 0.70 observed between the two last analysis periods.
Top tier reward rate on paid stays:
Marriott = 17.5 * 0.75 cpp =~ 13% reward rate
Hyatt = (5 * 1.3) * 2 cpp =~ 13% reward rate
For whatever it’s worth.
I would still take Hyatt points over Marriott points any day of the week. So much more room for outsized value. You just can’t compete with a program that has a fixed award chart.
When you say “so much more room for outsized value,” are you saying a person can find an abundance of redemption opportunities north of the 2 cents per point I’ve used? I’m not certain the average person will experience that. Another long-tenured blogger says his experience with Hyatt averages about 1.5 cents per point. At 2 cents, I thought I was being generous.
Thank you for rerunning the analysis, Greg. Are there any plans to update any other RRVs for hotel or airline programs in the near future?
Yep, we’ll be trying to get through all of the hotel programs and at least some of the airlines in Q1 this year.
I think Marriott points aren’t worth it. As they expand their imprint on the hotel industry they have become more avaricious and parsimonious. Hyatt, Hilton and IHG are better.
Wyndham are right up there too in terms of value.
It would be helpful to know the properties. By the way, you can actually see the most redeemed properties on the Marriott website.
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Consistent price increases and consistent point value decline. All Marriott needs to do now is make points more costly to obtain and the program will be completely useless.