JetBlue wants a suitor. Which is most suitable for 25 for 25ers?

Reports in recent days have indicated that JetBlue is looking for a suitor, having officially sought out advisors to assess merger possibilities with several major airlines. It has long been rumored that United may be interested in acquiring JetBlue, but reports this week indicate that JetBlue could also be exploring its options with Alaska and Southwest. Who is most likely — and will this be a win for those of us who completed 25 for 25? I don’t know for sure, but I’m game to share my thoughts and predictions — including a possibility that I don’t think you’ll see predicted in many other places.

JetBlue has long been headed toward a merger

It hasn’t been a secret that JetBlue has struggled in recent years, and it has long been expected that JetBlue was looking to turn a partnership into a long-term commitment.

JetBlue first flirted with American Airlines, having a relatively short-lived partnership a few years ago that was ultimately stopped in its tracks by regulators in 2023.

Then, they tried to merge with Spirit in 2024, and that was also blocked by the courts.

Then, they announced the “BlueSky” partnership with United last year, first offering members of both programs the ability to earn miles through travel on both airlines, then offering reciprocal award redemptions, the ability to book cash tickets for both airlines on either website, and announcing plans for reciprocal elite benefits. To me, the biggest indicator that JetBlue and United were serious about each other was when it was announced that JetBlue’s “Paisly” vacation booking platform would take over management of United’s own vacation packaging business. Greg predicted that JetBlue would be involved in a merger or acquisition in 2026, and it seems that he may well win a point for that prediction.

One of the reasons everyone has felt confident about this happening in 2026 is that the regulatory environment is far different now than it was in 2023 or 2024. While the future is tough to predict, it is hard to imagine a more potentially merger-friendly set of conditions than the current environment. Many pundits have expected that a merger or acquisition would be announced in 2026 and likely completed by 2028.

Until this week, the smart money for a merger has been on United, but with JetBlue floating several other suitors, I thought it was worth exploring each of them in terms of strengths and weaknesses, what each could mean for JetBlue 25 for 25 participants, and a left-field prediction for who else might be a good fit.

A merger is of particular interest for those of us who completed JetBlue’s 25 for 25 promotion

In 2025, JetBlue offered a promotion whereby members who flew to 25 unique JetBlue destinations earned 350,000 JetBlue points and 25 years of Moasic 1 elite status.

I completed that promotion with my family of four, so we now have more than 1 million pooled JetBlue points, and each of us has Moasic 1 status through January 31, 2051.

I assume that most people who completed that challenge were familiar with the fact that JetBlue has been on shaky financial ground for quite some time and has been interested in a merger or acquisition. In fact, for me, that was part of the appeal of the promotion. I don’t typically fly JetBlue enough for Mosaic 1 elite status to be of massive value for me, and JetBlue points have limited outsized value uses. I pursued the promotion in large part as a gamble that JetBlue would merge with a larger airline and that the status might be honored for 25 years after a merger.

Alternatively, I think we all knew that there was/is a chance that they would merge with another airline that wouldn’t ultimately honor the status (or would only honor it temporarily). I was willing to make that gamble in the hopes of ending up with airline elite status that is more useful to me and/or points that have more outsized value use cases. I am therefore keeping a close eye on merger talk and have opinions about which would be best for those of us with 25 years of elite status and piles of JetBlue points.

The potential suitors

United Airlines

Why?

United is the most obvious suitor simply because of the existing partnership with JetBlue. That partnership just began last year, and it is hard to imagine that United has gone to the trouble of integrating reciprocal award redemptions, reciprocal cash ticket purchases, and allowing JetBlue to manage its vacation package business without an eye toward an acquisition. Add to that the fact that United’s CEO seems interested in bringing United back to JFK, and I can’t see why United wouldn’t be the leading candidate.

Pluses

• United having access to JFK opens up a lot of Star Alliance partner redemptions that otherwise required either an airport change or separate tickets, neither of which is appealing
• The increased competition at JFK would probably be of benefit to many consumers by giving Delta more serious competition. Sure, JetBlue is there right now, but in its weakened state, it just isn’t able to offer the frequency and timings that make it as serious a competitor as United would be.

Minuses

• United already dominates at Newark. Maybe this gives them too much market share in the greater New York area
• JetBlue’s route map probably doesn’t mean a lot to United outside of JFK (maybe they would keep a mini hub in Fort Lauderdale?).
• JetBlue offers some unique partnerships (such as with Condor, Qatar, and Etihad) that allow for some good deals that we wouldn’t get with United.

Would this be good for 25 for 25ers?

As someone who completed JetBlue’s 25 for 25 challenge (with my entire family of four), I wouldn’t be terribly disappointed if JetBlue merged with United. In fact, I was partly betting on this merger when I went after the promotion.

If our JetBlue points became United Mileage Plus miles, we would pick up wider opportunities to get outsized value. That would probably come at the cost of no longer being able to book things like Condor business class for 54K each way to/from Europe or redemptions on Qatar or Etihad. However, most people would probably find Star Alliance to offer far more opportunities overall.

From a status standpoint, I would expect that those with Mosaic 1 status from the 25 for 25 promotion would be able to expect United Silver status for at least a while. Would United honor that status for 25 years? It is very hard to predict, but United was certainly familiar with the promotion, as it drew a lot of attention for JetBlue at exactly the time when the partnership between the airlines was blossoming.

And truth be told, giving United Silver status to the ~2,100 people who completed JetBlue’s 25 for 25 challenge wouldn’t be terribly expensive for United. Sure, they’d miss out on a few checked baggage fees and perhaps some extra legroom seating fees now and then, but given the fact that United carries somewhere in the realm of 175 million passengers per year, I would think that it wouldn’t be an undue hardship to honor the promotion for 25 years. Further, JetBlue and United have already been integrating IT, with reciprocal elite benefits expected to begin this spring. And since those of us who completed 25 for 25 have a status expiration date of January 31, 2051, I think it is possible that this might not require much back-end work for United to implement. I am relatively optimistic that United Silver status might get honored for 25 for 25 Mosaic 1s.

Alaska Airlines

Why?

Alaska is a powerhouse on the west coast of the United States. However, Alaska offers almost zero East Coast presence. Its partnership with American makes the Alaska Atmos program still potentially relevant, but Alaska could surely bring many more members into the fold if it had JetBlue’s East Coast network.

Furthermore, Alaska clearly has aspirations to become more of a “world” airline, with routes being operated to Asia and Europe with some of Hawaiian’s planes. I have to imagine that Alaska would be thrilled to pick up a few of JetBlue’s East Coast routes to Europe, particularly to the UK, since it would open up further collaborations with oneworld partner British Airways. And I’m sure that Alaska wouldn’t mind tapping into JetBlue’s Caribbean presence, either, as Alaska has quite a gap there as well. There’s a lot for Alaska to like about JetBlue that almost seems more additive for Alaska than JetBlue would be for United.

Pluses

• Alaska would fill major gaps with East Coast routes, including to/from the Caribbean and Europe, that would make it a much more significant player both domestically and internationally
• Alaska would pick up JetBlue’s long-range A321’s, which could potentially be repurposed on different routes that would help Alaska develop even further reach to Europe.
• By picking up East Coast hubs at JFK and BOS, Alaska could not only tap into JetBlue’s route network but also attract valuable business travelers from those markets who don’t currently have enough opportunities to fly Alaska to consider it as strongly for loyalty

Minuses

• Alaska already has its hands full with the merger with Hawaiian, which has gone surprisingly well, in part due to careful attention to under-promising and over-delivering. That would set tough expectations for a merger with JetBlue. Further, Alaska had previously stated a desire to stick with Bank of America as its primary credit card partner. Integrating JetBlue would come with a host of technical and operational issues, as well as even more Barclays credit card holders.
• I assume that, from a financial standpoint, this just wouldn’t be the ideal time for Alaska to take on another airline. A bidding war with United almost certainly isn’t what Alaska wants.
• A merger between Alaska and JetBlue would likely move more slowly than one with United, given the lack of any current affiliation and the need for JetBlue’s disentanglement with United.

Would this be good for 25 for 25ers?

As a JetBlue 25 for 25er, I would be thrilled if Alaska took over JetBlue for several reasons.

For starters, I highly value Alaska Atmos points. It has become a great program for awards to/from Europe for those of us in the Northeast, and the free stopover on one-way awards is excellent. I would love to see our ~1 million JetBlue points become a million Atmos points.

Further, Alaska has great pricing on shorter routes, which would likely make for numerous sweet spot deals on shorter domestic and Caribbean redemptions on legacy JetBlue routes.

In terms of status, Alaska might be the most likely airline to honor JetBlue’s 25 for 25 status. Alaska’s Atmos program is run by folks who are very much tapped into the loyalty space and who would likely understand the importance of honoring JetBlue’s promise. Further, it would just be good business. Those customers who either were already flying JetBlue frequently enough or who had the time, money, and inclination to adjust plans to spend time over the course of just a few months to fly to 25 different JetBlue destinations (which means a lot of east coast flying) are almost certainly the type of customers that Alaska wants to attract if they want this merger. I think JetBlue’s customer base is probably almost as important as the route network in the near-term if Alaska wants to claim market share on the East Coast, so honoring status would almost be a no-brainer. And while I could see United potentially limiting the amount of time when they honor the JetBlue status, I could see Alaska deciding that expanding the business in East Coast markets is more important than whatever they might save by failing to honor it.

To be clear, I don’t think it is very likely that Alaska would merge with JetBlue, but I’d welcome it if they did.

Southwest Airlines

Why?

I’m not really sure. Southwest seems like an odd fit for a merger here, though they have been floated as a potential candidate.

My best guess is that Southwest has been inching its way toward becoming more like all of the other major US airlines, so maybe Southwest thinks it is finally time to diversify its fleet beyond Boeing 737 planes. And if Southwest wants to be more like the other major players, they probably need some international routes to connect with foreign partners. JetBlue would give them some reach across the pond and a business class offering.

Speaking of a business class offering, if Southwest truly wants to compete with the major players domestically, it really needs to upgrade its in-flight experience. Southwest just can’t compete for premium flyers as things stand. Picking up JetBlue’s routes and planes would instantly give it a chance to compete for a premium market segment that it has long ignored entirely.

Furthermore, I have to imagine that Southwest would benefit from being able to connect East Coast traffic to its Hawaii routes more efficiently. Its intra-Hawaii route network gives it some benefit there. And given that Southwest does have a fair amount of presence in Hawaii, maybe they could make use of a couple of JetBlue A321LRs to fly to Tokyo?

It’s probably a stretch that Southwest wants or needs a merger with JetBlue, but maybe it is less nonsensical than it sounds at first pass.

Pluses

• Southwest would become far more international with the capacity to serve Europe
• They would instantly gain the ability to compete for premium customers on transcontinental routes (perhaps repurposing some of the aircraft used to serve the Caribbean in order to offer more premium transcon options?)
• Connections from the East Coast to Hawaii would become far more manageable
• Southwest would finally diversify its fleet

Minuses

• Southwest’s IT meltdowns of the last few years and the years it has taken to prepare for selling overnight connections and redeyes don’t inspire confidence that it is capable of undertaking a major merger
• Southwest hasn’t been in the strongest financial position for years and seemed more likely to be headed for being acquired than headed for doing any acquiring.
• The operational hurdle of moving from a single aircraft line to multiple, and the aforementioned IT challenges, combine to make it feel like they just might not be nimble enough to get a deal done with the expediency that JetBlue probably prefers

Would this be good for 25 for 25ers?

As a JetBlue 25 for 25er, I would not at all be excited about a Southwest merger.

My first thought is that I would be trading a mostly fixed value currency in TrueBlue points (worth around 1.3c per point toward JetBlue flights) for an even less valuable mostly fixed value currency of Southwest points (which I’m more consistently finding to be worth around 1.2c). At least with JetBlue, I have a few international partner award possibilities!

From a status standpoint, I have very little faith that Southwest would honor JetBlue’s 25 years of elite status. That is in part due to the mostly customer-unfriendly position Southwest has taken over the last year, and in part due to its track record of poor IT.

Even if Southwest did manage to honor status, I would only expect Mosaic 1 to get A-list status. However, A-list status isn’t terribly valuable given that almost all of the meaningful A-list benefits can be gained by simply having one of the premium Southwest credit cards. The upside of having status is relatively limited, given that you could just get a premium Southwest card and get most of the meaningful stuff.

As a Companion Pass holder, I guess the points could be useful for me, but they aren’t worth double.

I think this possibility is very unlikely, and I’ll be very disappointed if it happens.

Is there anyone else? (My off-the-wall dark horse pick)

Neither American Airlines nor Delta has been mentioned as a potential acquisition partner.

In the case of American Airlines, I expect it is because regulators shot down the previous partnership with JetBlue. I can’t imagine that American wants to pour the time and expense into exploring this again, with the potential for regulators to point to past precedent rather than offer a new independent evaluation of any merger.

While the current environment lends itself well to the idea of mergers and acquisitions, it would seem almost impossible for Delta to expect to be able to pick up additional JFK market share, particularly given the fact that it holds something like 50% of the market share at LaGuardia. It would be a stretch to think it could happen even if they wanted it to happen, and I can’t imagine why Delta would want it. Delta already has a solid operation and doesn’t particularly need anything that JetBlue has to offer.

Spirit isn’t in any position to explore anything here, and Frontier can’t really compete with the big dogs.

Breeze Airways was founded by David Neeleman, the same guy who founded JetBlue (and WestJet and Azul — he clearly has a thing for the color blue). In late 2023, Breeze announced long-term intentions to serve Europe, and it currently serves a host of smaller US cities that JetBlue doesn’t. Call me crazy, and most would for this statement, but I think Breeze is a dark horse contender. Do I think it’s likely? Not at all. Neeleman said in an early 2026 interview that he didn’t expect to pursue any mergers. Could I see it being possible? I mean, Neeleman has founded several airlines and, along with a couple of investor pals, owned a 45% stake in TAP Air Portugal for a few years. I certainly wouldn’t be so bold as to say that a Breeze / JetBlue merger is impossible. I know Neeleman says that Breeze isn’t looking for anything like that, but if the price is right, who knows?

Bottom line

I would be most excited to hear of a merger between Alaska and JetBlue, in part because I would be excited about turning my TrueBlue points into Alaska Atmos rewards and in part because I have faith in Alaska honoring 25 for 25. However, I think United is the most likely contender by far (and also fairly likely to honor status). My dark horse pick is Breeze. I’m not at all rooting for that (I don’t see any noticeable upside for 25 for 25ers or general JetBlue members), and it doesn’t sound likely at all, but if it comes out of left field, don’t say I didn’t see it coming in the distance.

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