The Bilt 2.0 rollout has taught me to question Bilt’s leadership more than ever. They promised a seamless transition to 2.0, but it was anything but. They launched their new cards before finalizing details about Bilt Cash. Then, in the face of negative publicity, they made the terrible spur-of-the-moment decision to add a confusing new option to Bilt 2.0’s already complicated rewards structure.
On the other hand, there’s no question in my mind that Bilt’s new cards can be extremely rewarding for those willing to navigate their complexity. The new cards make it possible to earn Bilt points at an unprecedented rate, and Bilt points remain the most valuable points around (thanks to having the best transfer partners and transfer bonuses). So… here’s the question… Given the many doubts about Bilt’s leadership, is there any reason to believe that Bilt points will continue to offer great value long term? I don’t want to invest heavily in the Bilt 2.0 ecosystem if there’s a significant risk of devaluation or, worse, collapse (as happened with Mesa).
I don’t think that a Bilt collapse is likely
Even with my doubts about Bilt’s leadership, I don’t think there’s a high risk of Bilt failing altogether. If Bilt were solely reliant on its credit card business, then I’d have serious concerns, but it’s not. My understanding is that around one quarter of all apartment rental offices in the United States use Bilt to collect rent payments. That’s a huge customer base in which Bilt apparently collects a small percentage of each transaction. Bilt provides rental offices with tools to help ensure on-time payments, and even to reward early payments. And renters like being rewarded for paying rent. It seems like a great business model to me. If my understanding of its business is correct, I believe Bilt can survive regardless of what happens to its credit card business.
Is it possible that Bilt’s poor leadership decisions will bleed over to the rental office market and wreak havoc there? Sure. Do I think it’s likely? No.
I don’t believe Bilt will willingly devalue points
Bilt has made several negative changes to its rewards program over time. For example, Bilt capped Rent Day double-point earnings at 1,000 points per month, down from 10,000. They also stopped offering points for certain types of purchases (such as tax payments). I can’t remember any examples, though, where Bilt reduced the value of its points. The closest thing to a devaluation I can think of is when Bilt lost American Airlines as a transfer partner. That wasn’t Bilt’s fault (I’m sure that AA pulled out of the agreement), but Bilt made up for it anyway by adding Alaska Airlines as a new transfer partner. Instead, over time, Bilt’s points have become more valuable by regularly adding new transfer partners and preserving 1-to-1 transfers to existing partners. For example, Bilt recently added Japan Airlines as a new 1-1 transfer partner. And, Bilt is now the only transferable points program to offer 1-1 transfers to Emirates (Amex, Citi, and Capital One now transfer to Emirates at less than 1-1, and Chase dropped Emirates altogether).
I’ve heard Bilt’s founder and CEO, Ankur Jain, speak proudly about how Bilt has the most valuable points around. Based on past experience, I believe he intends to keep it that way.
What if Bilt is sold?
I don’t know Ankur Jain’s long-term plans for Bilt, but it’s reasonable to expect he would be open to selling Bilt if the price were right. If that happened, what would happen to our Bilt points? I have no idea. However, I don’t think that it’s likely that Bilt would be sold and our points devalued before we had a chance to react. That is, once we learn about an acquisition, if we have reason to fear the new owner, I expect that we will have time to transfer our points to valuable transfer partners (Alaska, Hyatt, Flying Blue, United, etc.).
Conclusion
Given Bilt’s recent leadership lapses, it makes sense to distrust Bilt. Can you believe everything Bilt says? Nope. Can you count on Bilt 2.0’s reward structure to remain the same over time? Definitely not. Can you expect Bilt 2.0 to go smoothly from here on out? LOL. No. Given all of that distrust, it’s totally reasonable to give up on Bilt altogether. Many have (Here, Stephen Pepper does a good job of explaining why). But… some of us are extreme maximizers. We’re willing to put up with complexity and shifting sands to pursue the greatest value. Given what we know now about Bilt 2.0, I think that the value is there and, for me, it’s worth pursuing. And, I’m confident enough in the long-term value of Bilt points to be willing to put in the effort. Things will change, though. If/when Bilt 2.0 becomes less compelling, I’ll re-evaluate.
The above is not my recommendation to others. Most people don’t want complexity, instability, and risk. If that’s you, then forget about Bilt 2.0. There are plenty of other great options.
See also: My take on Bilt 2.0
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Churn and burn these. They will be great until they won’t be. Don’t get left holding the bag
Bilt totally fumbled the rollout of Bilt 2.0, but to me it smacks more of a “New Coke” blunder than a Mesa disaster. All the criticism they’ve caught is warranted but the consternation about them folding because they botched the release is misplaced, IMO.
Speaking of the non seamless transition — my card still hasn’t shipped. Any word on that?
You seem lime you have a vengeance since tpg (an investor) got that referral bonus plan(which was a disaster anyway).
Some impartial writing would be appreciated.
If they lost point valuation then yes I beleive rhe ecosteucture would self implode as that is their basis for running this…
“lime”?
“vengenace” — do you mean vendetta?
I thought The Points Guy sold thepointsguy website, so the investor isn’t the website anymore.
“I’ve heard Bilt’s founder and CEO, Ankur Jain, speak proudly about how Bilt has the most valuable points around. Based on past experience, I believe he intends to keep it that way.”
Can you think of an announcement by any transferable points card that they sought to devalue their points?
If Bernie Madoff ran Bilt, how would he modify the above quoted paragraph?
It is unlikely that the ethics of the senior management are going to be a determinent of the outcome, as the financial market vetting prior to their public visability is so intense. The relevant problem is likely to be financial pressure in the event of competition, a financial downturn, or government policy. The market thinks Bilt has a profitable niche (valuation $10.75Bn July 2025) but a well-managed and capitalised competitor could crush that. Ponder what would happen if someone creative was given their head at a sluggish competitor like Wells Fargo (which appears content to see its customers leave for Bilt 2.0).
The company has no leverage inherent in the business model, so it not like a WeWork house of cards.
The political risk depends on the midterms and whether the views of politicians like Durbin and Pocahontas gain more followers.
As a startup, Bilt has been bidding for transfer partners. Its 83% takeup rate from Bilt 1.0 suggests it has been successful with what it has offered. However, this is the area where management is going to look to scale back. So I differ with you on devaluation. I expect selective devaluation, probably within a complex formula given Bilt’s modus operandi (e.g. Emirates available only to big spenders at the 1/1 ratio).
I would also not be surprised to see more incestuous relationships with selected stores. For example, imagine the effect on the transferable points industry of Bilt announcing an across-the-board discount at Costco.
Since its Mastercard and coatco is visa how would that happen??
And why would Costco, who makes most of its money from membership fees and is hurting from the tariffs, cut either prices or membership fees to work with Bilt? This isn’t a “make it up on volume” play.
So much oxygen wasted on Bilt. It is Bilt like garbage I say. Valuable or not, it is really not worth the trouble. Much respect to the FM team putting up with this.
I for one don’t want Bilt to go down so hopefully everything goes smoothly. The ecosystem works much better and is far more rewarding overall when you have as much competition as possible. Some of the personalities at Bilt tend to rub me the wrong way but that doesn’t detract from the fact that their existence is a positive. I hope that they are successful.
In the end it’s no different than Uber. You gotta have the personality to sell such an audacious idea to investors.
You also can take years of losses funded by VC investors but one day you’ll need to turn profitable to make your investors happy. For Uber that meant raising prices. For Bilt that will mean devaluing points.
This is the same conclusion I came to. I read everything I could about their business model prior to accepting a 2.0 card. It seems like they get a cut of participating landlords’ rent payments and partner transactions. The 1.0 card got customers through the door so they could ink their many partnerships, with Wells Fargo funding much of the rent points. With 2.0 interchange fees and their other revenues can fund rent points tied to spend (and they ejected lower-margin spend like tax payments). Then they can take data on customers paying through their ACH to convince more landlords (and now mortgage companies) to sign up. The business model seems sound. They could certainly still mess it up, but a sudden death knell a la Mesa seems unlikely, more likely there would be warning signs related to businesses in their ecosystem exiting.
Can’t wait to watch this whole house of cards come crashing down by this time next year.
They’ll throttle down a dozen times between now and then (weak or otherwise limited transfer bonuses; dropping or capping JAL/WOH/AS; capping/lowering multiplier categories; etc), but if/when Fidem/Column get tired of subsidizing Ankur’s little grift and/or get caught in an undertow themselves after a little subprime unsecured lending crisis, they’ll go the way of Mesa.
By all means, get the SUB and pump and dump it while you can, if you’re a high enough spender to make it work, but BILT will be bricked sooner rather than later.
Maybe a silver BILTBrick sculpture will be their next BILT Cash redemption option to replace the Bananas(TM) thing. That’s a free idea for you, Ankur and Richard.
Fidem/Column are not subsidizing them. Wells Fargo scared everyone off. That is why these two unknowns are in. The payoff structure eliminates the weakness in 1.0. Ongoing spend is now rewarded. It is more likely that C1 Venture, and maybe C1 VX will see a lot of movement away.
Bilt’s biggest threat is competition. They have zero IP. No moat.
Anyone who applied for the Palladium through the TPG link by the deadline, can you see any evidence of the 5x promotion when you log in?
I can’t, and chat support hasn’t been able to confirm the offer was applied.
I used the chat to verify it this morning. The first attempt, using the AI got me a response like “No, and I don’t know what that is.” Typed Live Agent, and got a real person after a bout 5 minutes. After another 3-5 minutes, the agent confirmed that it was applied to my account.
Maybe adding more Bilt ads to the podcast would help….
This is exactly what I’ve concluded. When I need to transfer to a Bilt partner (aka Hyatt), I use my Bilt points first, because I don’t want to get caught in the rain with my Bilt points, but I also do not speculatively transfer Bilt points. I do not expect Bilt to devalue my transfers without me having notice…but if they do, I’ll certainly transfer out my points immediately.
The revision where you now earn $50 of B$ for every 25k points earned / unlocked versus just on $25k of spend also makes the maximizing part hard to pass up.
Agree 100%.
There is a risk here. And we need to quickly react if something happens.
I see that we might see changes in the near future on caps on earning points, etc…
I thought it was interesting that the Bilt transfer bonus was to Accor this month, 15 days before the Rakuten points transfer to Bilt begins. Accor points are guaranteed a sort of “outsized value” at redemption, whereas other points can still be used for cheaper (for the airline/hotel chain) redemptions. To me, that’s smart, long term thinking from Bilt, even if it wasn’t good for me as a maximizer.
Mesa added Omni days before the collapse. I might make monthly transfers to Atmos or whoever has the bonus on rent day.