Welcome to 2026! Here’s what we predict in miles, points, credit cards, and rewards programs

Readers and podcast listeners often ask us what we think will happen. For many years, we’ve given our educated guesses. Year after year, we have tried our hand at predicting the future with a series of predictions about what we think might be coming in the new year as it pertains to the world of miles, points, and credit cards.

Frequent Miler mainly focuses on dissecting and analyzing loyalty programs and credit cards, including ways to maximize your points earnings and take advantage of the best uses of your rewards. Unfortunately, thanks to old posts existing in perpetuity, it is equally well-established that we are far better at analyzing and dissecting those things that have happened than we are at guessing what will happen.

However, never willing to settle and rest on our laurels, we nonetheless soldier on with annual predictions that mostly don’t come true (sometimes with almost comical speed). To that end, I present you with Frequent Miler’s 2026 predictions, broken down by team member.

Nick Predicts….

American will *not* go off the charts

In 2025, I predicted that American Airlines would ditch its partner award chart. However, in 2026, I have come to realize that I was wrong all along. American’s move to dynamic pricing has likely helped them increase sales of spoiling inventory by offering some really cheap award deals, and it has likely allowed them to wipe many more miles off the books thanks to dynamically pricing flights when people actually want to travel. I think that actually protects the partner award chart. By charging people a billion miles to fly during peak times, they can maintain a valuable partner award chart that likely keeps a segment of business travelers choosing to direct their company’s money to American’s coffers. Besides, partner awards aren’t terribly expensive, and with more and more programs becoming stingy with award space, the partner award chart probably doesn’t cost AAlot. I predict that there will be no changes to the American Airlines partner award chart in 2026.

Hyatt will launch a no-annual-fee credit card

For years, award travel enthusiasts have been awaiting a premium Hyatt credit card with bated breath. The fires of that anticipation were recently stoked when confirmation came that Hyatt intends to launch a new credit card product in 2026. However, I think we’ve had it all wrong on this one. Award travel enthusiasts think of Hyatt as being premium, largely because of terrific top-tier elite status perks and the desire of those of us amassing large numbers of points to use them for luxury stays. However, the vast majority of Hyatt’s footprint is actually made up of Hyatt Place and Hyatt House. I can’t imagine that Hyatt would pick up booming sales of a premium credit card at the front desk of a suburban Hyatt Place. Instead, what they’ve been missing is a no-annual-fee credit card. Every other chain has one: Marriott, Hilton, Wyndham, Choice Privileges, etc. While I won’t have any interest at all in a lower-tier Hyatt credit card, I have to imagine that Hyatt would stand to gain far more robust sales with that type of product, given its footprint, than they would an ultra-premium credit card. I’m not saying that they won’t dip their toes into the premium card market, but rather that I am more confident that they will launch a no-annual-fee credit card in 2026.

U.S. Bank won’t actually launch transfer partners

U.S. Bank recently nerfed the Altitude Reserve card. However, many months ago, they had announced that they would be launching the ability to transfer points to partners. I can’t think of a good reason why they would announce the launch date of new perks so many months in advance and then fail to launch transfer partners at all unless they ultimately decided against a transfer partner program. One would think that they need to re-launch the Altitude Reserve in order to launch a transfer partner program, but there haven’t been any rumblings about that and the way the site has said “coming soon” on transfer partners (rather than a promise to launch at a specific close-in time) makes me think they jettisoned plans to launch a transfer partner program and are hoping that all recollection of it fades until they can just remove the “coming soon” banner. I desperately hope I’m wrong since I would have redeemed my points at 1.5c per point if they hadn’t teased us with a coming transfer partner program, but I’m losing faith quickly and predicting that this isn’t going to happen after all.

Amex will refresh the consumer Green card, but not the business version

I’m actually of two minds as to whether Amex will refresh the Green card since it is already a pretty decent card for its purposes. However, Amex does seem to love couponization, and they really knocked it out of the park with the couponification of the Platinum cards, so I think there is a chance we’ll see something interesting happen with the Green card this year. However, I am more confident that Amex will not refresh the Business Green card. One member of the team or another has predicted a refresh on that card a few times over the years, but I have come to realize that the Business Green card probably serves a purpose: As a Pay Over Time card, it probably allows Amex to offer a credit product to new small businesses who need capital but perhaps aren’t established enough for prime revolvers. I don’t think the market that goes after the Business Green card is looking to pay more or have more coupons, they are just looking for buying power. I think Amex is wise to continue to provide a product that fits that market segment. You may point to the way that Amex has recently aligned the Business and Consumer Platinum cards with many overlapping benefits (and, more importantly, a simultaneous refresh) and expect the same on the Green cards. However, I think the Platinum cards are a different story: the business owner who considers paying for a premium product like a Business Platinum card likely has the income to also support a consumer Platinum, so there is more overlap in that market. I don’t see the Green cards as being designed for similar customers on the conumer side vs business side, and I think they’ll keep it that way and avoid couonizing the Business Green.

Southwest will finally kill off the Companion Pass via credit card welcome bonuses

I hate to make this prediction, but I think the day many of us have dreaded will finally come: Southwest will finally kill off the ability to earn a Companion Pass via credit card welcome bonuses. For years, it has been possible to earn a Southwest Companion Pass by opening a new credit card or two and meeting the spending requirements to earn a big welcome bonus, since the welcome bonus points have long counted toward earning the pass. I can’t imagine that the new powers that be like that; I think the bean-counters will finally decide that they want to make the Companion Pass harder to earn. To be clear, I think it is more likely that this change will be announcedn in 2026 than implemented in 2026, but I’m going to predict one of the two: Southwest will either announce that the Companion Pass can no longer be earned via credit card welcome bonuses in 2027 (perhaps by making it an elite status perk in 2027) or maybe they’ll be even more aggressive and end it at some point in 2026 by making points earned from welcome bonuses no longer companion pass-qualifying points. To be very clear, I think we’ll have some warning before this changes, so I’m not nervous about those currently in the process of meeting spend (I recently opened a Southwest business credit card myself). I expect that for at least the first ~half of 2026, new credit card welcome bonuses will still count toward the Companion Pass. But by fall, I think we’ll have a new look at the 2027 elite program and any associated changes to the companion pass, and that whatever changes, welcome bonuses will stop counting.

Tim foretells…..

Another US airline will “Delta-rize” its credit cards with award ticket discounts for cardholders

When it comes to customer-unfriendly loyalty program changes that maximize profit at the expense of customers, there’s one air line that stands out above the rest: Delta (all those pedantic folks out there will note that Delta is actually the only air line, but let’s move on). For years, United and American (and, more recently, Southwest) have been jealously eyeing Delta’s Scroogified world of declining point values, rising award prices, and unobtainable elite upgrades; it’s usually only a matter of time before they follow suit.

Delta and American Express have been masterful at incentivizing folks to put massive amounts of spending on the (fairly mediocre) portfolio of SkyMiles-earning credit cards. By some accounts, consumers collectively spend the equivalent of a small country’s GDP on them each year.

One recent innovation that the other legacy carriers have yet to imitate is Delta’s 15% discount for cardholders on award flights. United offers increased saver award availability to most cardholders, but it’s not immediately clear to most folks what they would pay if they didn’t have the card, or what they might pay if they did. Delta advertises the improved pricing that you would get for that flight you’re about to book if only you had some Delta plastic, and reminds you that if you don’t pay your annual fee, that more expensive, crossed-out fare would be your destiny.

In 2026, I think that at least one other major US carrier will once again ape Delta by adding award discounts for cardholders.

Chase will continue its war on the definition of travel

Since its release, the Chase Sapphire Reserve® has been a nearly perfect travel card, combining a generous 3x bonus travel category that covers just about anything travel-related you can think of with the best on-the-go protections on the planet. Until this year.

In mid-2025, the card was “refreshed and relaunched,” with a bevy of random, irritating coupons accompanying a massive $795 annual fee. At the same time that the annual fee on this supposed “travel” card began flirting with $800/year, it also lost the all-inclusive travel category that had previously made it such a no-brainer. Now, the card earns 4x on flights and hotels, but only 1x on all other travel.

However, that old, wide-reaching travel definition continues to apply to both the Sapphire Preferred® (at 2x) and Ink Business Preferred® cards (at 3x). This creates a confusing situation where Chase’s cheaper business and personal cards are actually more rewarding for many types of travel purchases than Chase’s brand-spanking new reissued refreshed, ultra-premium, “Cadillac” travel cards. I don’t think that this surprising oversight will survive 2026, however. Chase’s Sauron-like gaze will find and snuff out these rogue bonusers of travel, making them similar to the categories offered on the Reserve cards now.

Wells Fargo will finally get on the transfer train

Wells Fargo has historically been a minor player in the points-and-miles universe, primarily because of its lack of cobranded cards or a currency that transfers to travel partners, unless you want to count its soon-to-be-so-last-year backing of the Bilt card. When the Bilt partnership was initially announced, many folks (including me) predicted that Wells would eventually go around Bilt and saunter seductively into the world of transfer partners itself.

Over the past couple of years, that hasn’t really happened, despite Wells’ repeated hints that its initially modest portfolio of airlines and hotels would attractively expand. However, Wells Fargo moved fast and broke things in 2025, and two developments have me lining up like Charlie Brown to kick Wells Fargo/Lucy’s transfer partner football once again. First, Bilt and Wells are breaking up, with Bilt surprisingly moving over to Cardless (don’t worry, there will be cards). Second, Wells announced 1:1 transfers to JetBlue almost exactly a year after it added Virgin Atlantic. Two new transfer partners in two years? When it comes to Wells Fargo, that’s what we call “momentum!”

I like to make my predictions fairly specific, so it’s easy to tell if they’re right or wrong (that’s probably why I’m usually wrong). I predict that, for the first time ever, Wells Fargo will add at least two new transfer partners in 2026.

We’ll be “dishonored” by a 300K Hilton standard award

Hilton Honors didn’t exactly wow its members in 2025. In the midst of a deluge of complaints about increasing award prices, we found that Hilton points dropped ~15-20% in average value, at the same time that the maximum price for award nights has more than doubled (not coincidentally, after it added several hundred, very expensive properties from the SLH portfolio).

We’ve been told in no uncertain terms that Hilton has no desire to cap the value of its free night certificates. However, the Hilton Honors team doesn’t seem to acknowledge any recent decline in the value of their points, insisting that the combination of earning rates and points value makes Hilton more rewarding than its competitors. Because of that, it will continue to raise the maximum redemption amounts of standard awards as cash prices warrant.

I’m afraid to see where that will take award prices within the next few years. I don’t think that the current maximum standard award price of 250k is the ceiling of what we can expect for high-value, luxury properties. We’ll continue to see those rates go up…and up. In fact, I think Hilton awards will continue to skyrocket at high-end properties, and we’ll see our first 300,000-point standard night in 2026.

Greg guesses….

JetBlue will be involved in a merger or acquisition

JetBlue has a lot going for it, but its route network leaves a lot to be desired unless you live in Boston, New York City, or Florida. As a result, it would make sense for JetBlue to buy another airline (Spirit?) or to be acquired by another (United?). I predict that in 2026, we will see the first steps, an announcement at least, towards one of those outcomes.

Amex will improve one of its existing cards

In 2025, Amex refreshed its Platinum cards with higher annual fees and expanded coupons. No one, least of all me, thought that would be a recipe for success, but Amex proved us wrong. The refreshed Platinum card is a winner. I expect that Amex will build on that success with at least one more card in its portfolio. Gold? Green? Bonvoy Brilliant? We’ll see!

Hyatt’s new card will disappoint

In November, we learned that Hyatt is planning to expand its credit card portfolio. In response, I detailed my Hyatt premium card wishlist. Despite Hyatt going dynamic with Mr & Mrs. Smith properties, I’m still a fan of Hyatt’s loyalty program. Hyatt’s points are super-valuable, Hyatt makes all rewards giftable, and Hyatt’s top-tier status is far superior to any other major hotel program’s. So, I really, really want to love Hyatt’s new card. But I predict that I won’t because Hyatt hasn’t shown much creativity in designing card benefits in the past. Here’s to hoping that I’m wrong.

Chase will continue its efforts to exterminate the “all travel” category

In 2025, Chase refreshed the Sapphire Reserve® card. One of the most controversial changes was replacing 3x for “all travel” with 4x for directly booked hotels and flights, and 1x for all other travel (except when booked through Chase). At the time of this writing, though, the Sapphire Preferred card still offers 2x for all travel, and the Ink Business Preferred still offers 3x. I predict that one or both of those are slated for a refresh in 2026. If/when that happens, I expect that the “all travel” category will be eliminated.

Transferable points will offer new targets

In 2025, those with transferable points gained access to programs that weren’t previously available (at least not at anywhere near 1-to-1 transfers). Newly available programs included Japan Airlines, Lufthansa Miles & More, SAS, and others. Plus, we got back the ability to transfer to AA. I predict that this trend will continue into 2026. We will see at least one current or new transferable points program gain access to at least one loyalty program that we haven’t had access to before.

Stephen foresees….

Throughout 2025, I kept a list of potential predictions for this 2026 predictions post. I couldn’t decide which of the eleven to cut, so I’m predicting them all.

More travel-related debit cards will be launched

Over the past year or so, we’ve seen the introduction of Southwest, Wyndham, and United debit cards. I’m predicting that we’ll see even more travel-related debit cards launched in 2026.

One possible option is Marriott because they’ve just launched a couple of debit cards in the UK, so debit cards are clearly on their radar. I won’t count this as a win if it’s only Spirit that launches a debit card as they’ve already announced that’s their plan (although it was supposed to have been launched in late 2025, but never was).

Bilt will reduce transfer ratio to Emirates (or at least announce it)

2025 was an awful year for people who like to transfer their transferable points to the Emirates Skywards program. Chase dropped Emirates as a transfer partner, while Amex and Citi both slashed their transfer ratios from 1,000:1,000 to 1,000:800, with Capital One reducing their ratio to 1,000:750 on January 13, 2026.

Bilt is the 1:1 holdout, but I don’t expect that to last long. I suspect Bilt will – at the very least – announce during 2026 that it’ll either drop Emirates as a transfer partner or reduce the transfer ratio. If there is a change, it’ll probably be the latter rather than the former.

Leading Hotels of the World to become transfer partner of another transferable points program

It’s been just over two years since Citi ThankYou added Leading Hotels of the World (LHW) as a transfer partner. It’s been a little surprising that no other transferable points programs have picked them up in the meantime, but I’m predicting that 2026 will be the year that changes.

My biggest suspicion is that it’ll be American Express that adds LHW as a Membership Rewards transfer partner. One of the unexpected new benefits of the revamped Platinum Card® and Business Platinum Card® was Sterling status in LHW’s loyalty program. That seems a little random considering LHW isn’t currently a Membership Rewards transfer partner which is why I think that’ll change in the next 12 months.

Bilt will fumble the move from Wells Fargo to Cardless and/or the new card launch

I certainly hope this a prediction that doesn’t turn out to be true. With any move like this, there are likely to be teething problems, so hopefully there aren’t a bunch of missed rent payments, transitioned Bilt card delays, etc.

If this prediction does come true, I think it’ll be more likely that it’ll be due to an underwhelming new card lineup. Chase has demonstrated that a card that once provided a lot of value and garnered a lot of interest in years gone by can be nerfed so badly that it’s a joint winner of the Bonvoyed of the Year awards. There are already rumors that the no annual fee Bilt card won’t be as good as at present once it’s moved to Cardless. It remains to be seen how good the three new cards that are part of Bilt 2.0 will turn out to be, but I can envision a world where the sentiment towards them won’t be overly positive. This could be due to any one or more of poor welcome offers (if any at all), convoluted and/or stringent spending requirements to earn points on rent or mortgage spend, poor earning rates, limited benefits, low credit limits, poor online account management, or any other number of things.

I won’t count this as a correct prediction if there are just various rumblings of discontent as that’s inevitable with any kind of major change like this. It’ll be if there’s a major fumbling in one way or another with the transition and/or card launch.

Choice will have a fairly significant devaluation/revaluation

Choice is improving its loyalty program early this year, but I doubt that’ll come at no cost. There was a seeming devaluation in early 2025, only for it to be reversed and passed off as a glitch. I don’t think we’ll be so lucky this year and we’ll see a notable devaluation.

Accor will announce and/or launch a credit card in the US

Accor appears to want more attention from its American loyalty program members by becoming a transfer partner of Citi, Capital One, Bilt, and Rove, as well as by offering year-long status for Bilt members at the start of 2025.

That’s why the absence of an Accor credit card in the US is such a surprise. Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but will 2026 be the year that one gets launched? For the sake of my prediction success, I’m hoping it does.

Southwest Companion Pass will be harder to earn

Nick chose Southwest for his 2025 Bonvoyed of the Year award. If Southwest’s negative changes were contained to 2025, that would be welcome news. I fear they might not be done though.

My prediction is that up next on the chopping (or paring) block will be the Companion Pass. I doubt that Southwest will do away with it entirely, but I do think they’ll make it harder to earn. Perhaps the bonus points from credit card welcome offers won’t be Companion Pass Qualifying Points, perhaps the 135,000 qualifying points requirement will be increased to 150,000 or more, perhaps it’ll no longer be possible to change your companion during the year, or perhaps the Companion Pass will only be valid for revenue or award flights – not both. No matter what, be prepared for an announcement in 2026 about a forthcoming negative change for those earning Companion Passes.

Rove will add more transfer partners

Rove was a welcome addition to the points and miles landscape in 2025, launching a brand new transferable points currency, having transfer bonuses, running shopping portal promotions, running a travel portal where you can book loyalty-eligible hotel stays, and more.

Rove currently has 13 transfer partners; I’m predicting they’ll have at least 14-15 before we’re preparing for 2027 New Year celebrations.

Wells Fargo will also add more transfer partners

I’m a little wary about this one because Wells Fargo’s efforts at improving its transferable points program have been somewhat lackluster. They launched the Autograph Journey card with an average lineup of partners before adding one further partner in 2024 and another in 2025.

I feel like expecting them to add at least two more partners in 2026 is asking too much, but I would expect to see them add at least one more partner.

Wyndham will announce they’re ending their Insider subscription program

One of the biggest wastes of time and money in 2025 was Wyndham Rewards launching its Insider subscription program. The cost of the $95 subscription exceeds the value that 99.2371% of members will be able to get from it. It seems like take-up might’ve been so bad that within weeks Wyndham was literally giving it away (albeit via a free two month free trial).

I can’t imagine that 2026 will see Wyndham Rewards members suddenly decide to light $95 on fire each year, so I think we’ll get news that Wyndham plans to wind down the program.

Capital One’s acquisition of Discover will finally become interesting

Capital One completed its acquisition of Discover in May 2025, but things have gotten quiet since then. I’m hoping that 2026 is when there’s some kind of notable development.

Maybe it’ll be possible to convert Discover cards to Capital One cards. Maybe Discover It Cashback Bonus will be transferable to miles-earning Capital One cards. Maybe Discover It Miles become actual transferable miles. Or maybe Capital One shuts down Greg’s Discover cards too. No matter what, we’ll hopefully see something more than just the status quo.

Carrie forecasts…

Spirit will cease to exist as we know it….

Spirit filed for bankruptcy twice in a 12-month span: once in November 2024 and again this August (less than 12 months later). Unlike Southwest, they have not made any drastic overhauls, which, love them or hate them, at least give the impression of changed ways that could save the day and turn things around. I think this is the year Spirit will cease to exist as we know it, probably through some kind of acquisition.

We’ll see more restrictions on airport lounge access….

Airport lounge access has become so prevalent that it can be hard to even find a place to sit (if you bother waiting in line to enter in the first place). To fix this, some issuers have been working to restrict lounge access. For example, by the beginning of this year, we’d already seen limits set for Priority Pass Restaurants and Delta Sky Club visits for Platinum cardholders. These kinds of changes seem necessary to me (because again, lounges have gotten really crowded). I think we’ll see even more airport lounge access restrictions announced this year (even if they aren’t implemented in 2026).

During this year’s annual challenge, Nick will be within $25 of going over budget….

We don’t always have a cash budget for our annual challenges. For example, in the Million Mile Madness challenge and the Flying by the Seat of our Points challenges, contestants were judged based on the cost and value of their itineraries, but no official budget was set. Each year we have extensive conversations around how success should be measured. Over the years, we’ve come to gradually favor actual fixed budgets since it gives a very clear status measurement for easy comparison from contestant to contestant, and tends to force creative decisions from our contestants. Greg almost certainly wouldn’t have ever met Chef Bjarne if it weren’t for the strict 40K to Far Away budget that led him to Couch Surfing forums to brainstorm affordable ideas for Johannesburg. This is sort of a duel prediction, which presumes we will again opt to have a fixed cash budget of some kind for our annual challenge this year.

Nick is definitely the person who seems to gamble with the budget the most (sometimes literally, as we saw in this year’s 100K Vacay challenge!). But believe it or not, he’s gotten better at staying within budget over the years. In 3 Cards 3 Continents, for example, Nick was just $4.98 away from his budget limit of $1,000. But in this year’s annual challenge, Nick was a whole $20.37 away from his budget limit of $1,000. I predict this year he’ll be just a little bit more under budget, even if he has to pull some crazy tricks to achieve it.

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