A few days ago, we learned that Amex plans to reduce the transfer ratio of Amex points to Cathay Pacific Asia Miles. Starting 3/1/26, 1,000 Membership Rewards points will get you only 800 Asia Miles. Taken on its own, this wouldn’t be a big deal. Asia Miles can be useful for certain situations, but they’re hardly the most valuable currency. I’m more concerned about what this means in the broader context. Is this a one-off event or a harbinger of things to come?
In recent months, Emirates apparently increased the amount it charges banks for its miles. We know this only because Chase stopped offering transfers to Emirates, and Amex, Citi, and Capital One announced reduced transfer ratios to Emirates.
Now I wonder about the Cathay Pacific change. Did Cathay Pacific increase point prices, too? Or did the Emirates situation essentially give Amex permission to devalue point transfers that cost them too much money? Either way, this makes me nervous. Will this keep happening until 1 to 1 transfers become the exception rather than the rule?
Chase’s decision to drop Emirates as a transfer partner is an interesting case study. Among the major transferable points currencies, Chase is the only one that maintains 1 to 1 transfers for all transfer partners. This includes programs where 1 to 1 transfers are a bad deal for the consumer (such as 1 to 1 transfers to IHG and Marriott). I think that’s a sensible business strategy. Point transfers are confusing enough to people new to miles & points without introducing mixed transfer ratios. The fact that Chase held firm and jettisoned Emirates rather than reducing the transfer ratio gives me hope. Many programs rely heavily on revenue from these point transfers. Few could afford to give up Chase’s business.
Bilt stands alone in continuing to offer 1 to 1 transfers to Emirates. It’s also the only program that offers 1 to 1 transfers to Japan Airlines. I don’t know whether Bilt has done a better job with price negotiations or if it banks on the fact that most Bilt members will use points for low-value things like paying rent or buying on Amazon. Either way, Bilt deserves kudos for keeping 1 to 1 transfers alive. I doubt Bilt’s program is big enough to stop this trend from happening elsewhere, but it can’t hurt to have both Chase and Bilt holding the line in their own ways.
What’s next? Amex isn’t the only program that currently offers 1 to 1 transfers to Cathay Pacific. If Cathay Pacific has raised its point prices, we’ll probably see Citi and Capital One reduce their transfer ratios, too. Chase doesn’t partner with Cathay, so nothing will change there. And I expect that Bilt will maintain 1 to 1 transfers as it has done with Emirates. But if the reason behind Amex’s Cathay transfer devaluation is simply that Amex now feels like it’s OK to do this, the other programs will keep their 1 to 1 transfers to Cathay, and we can expect other devaluations from Amex. If so, I bet that ANA will be the next Amex transfer devaluation.
Which programs offer worse than 1 to 1 transfers to airlines?
Without considering hotel points (since hotel point values are all over the map), I’ve listed below all of the non-1-to-1 transfer ratios from the major transferable points programs:
- Chase: All airline transfers are 1 to 1
- Bilt: All airline transfers are 1 to 1
- Amex:
- Aeromexico 1,000 to 1,600 (better than 1 to 1)
- Cathay Pacific: 1,000 to 800 (starting 3/1/26)
- Emirates 1,000 to 800
- JetBlue 1,000 to 800
- Capital One:
-
- EVA: 1,000 to 750
- Japan Airlines: 1,000 to 750
- JetBlue: 1,000 to 600
- Emirates: 1,000 to 750 (starting January 13, 2026)
-
- Citi: Emirates: 1,000 to 800
The list above makes Chase, Bilt, and even Citi look really good. Amex and Capital One, though, are on a slippery slope that we can only hope won’t continue.
Want to learn more about miles and points? Subscribe to email updates or check out our podcast on your favorite podcast platform.
AMEX has a 15% transfer bonus to Cathy Pacific on my plat card right now. Took advantage for a speculative transfer before the decrease in transfer ratio.
Any thoughts on the risk of Citi doing a no-notice devaluation of transfers to AA? I’m sitting on a stash of Thank You points and have been counting on those 1-1 transfers being available as needed, but am starting to get a little nervous.
Idk, the other risk is AA itself devaluing miles. Given that I’d still sit on Citi TYP rather than transfer.
Only for programs people actually get good, aspirational awards out of. For dynamic programs with loads of fees (flying blue, flying club, Avios) they probably see less risk to keep 1:1 or even offer transfer bonuses.
The wild card in all of this is Aeroplan which seems interested in maintaining/strengthening their link with Chase.
Citi with it’s 2% cash back and AA transfer partners seems like it’s becoming the top option for me.
Cathay can not do that with Citi as they issue their credit cards in Hong Kong and also I think AMEX and Citi are doing a deep war. AMEX has Aeromexico cards in Mexico and it is ending with Citi on January 25 and now Citi told Cathay to lower it.
Devaluing sucks, it’s not at all what you want to see. But, I do not see any reason to believe it will be the ongoing trend. There has been a few big devaluations sure, but I can get a Citi card and now transfer for American Airlines miles. The name of the game is adaption. There will always be good reward deals out there. We just have to keep adapting.
Being able to cash out MR points to Schwab is becoming more and more valuable.
In a way it makes sense, in that earning directly on co-branded cards should exceed what one may earn in their currency by transferring from flexible currencies. The new normal could be that flexible currency cards are useful mainly for niche programs and topping off…and of course coupons.
Yeah I’d definitely agree. One of many reasons the Hyatt card is not a spend driver at all is because any of the Chase 3x dining cards straight up out earn it. It’s only good for 4x Hyatt spend
& now not even that when the CSR/CSRB earns 4x on hotels & can power boost to 8x hotels
For those of us who are based in markets outside the US, not having any 1 to 1 transfers has pretty much always been the norm for us. We’ve had to deal with jumbled up ratios for years (5:4, 6:5, 3:2, etc) so for us this feels like the US finally getting its side of the playing field leveled out compared to the rest of the world. All we can say is : welcome to our world and enjoy the mental arithmetic games 😉
Yes I believe AUS have had this extensively the past few years.
I’m based in France and I’ve been slowly leaving the game as my options are bone dry on earnings. No-one other than AMEX and Revolut do transferrable points currencies, only one sign-up bonus per lifetime, etc. A couple years ago I was using an AMEX Platinum but they’ve taken away most of its core benefits (IE Priority Pass cut down to just 10 visits per year, free Amazon Prime removed, no bonus categories, etc) whilst also continuing to jack up the annual fee. I downgraded it to an AMEX Green card instead just to keep my points balance alive
That’s a bummer Matt. Spain at least has some like Iberia card family members has but that’s 1 Avios per €2 ($2.33). Monthly fee is like ($9.30)
There’s still tremendous value but to those that think its dead. Then it’s “very very dead” go find something else. Ultimately it’ll only help the rest.
I mostly stay in the points and miles game as hobby and read FM and other blogs for entertainment. The joy and the opportunity are mostly gone.
I don’t get the math of how points transfers are calculated but how much of it has to do with the ease in earning points in a bank’s ecosystem?
For example, yes BILT maintains a 1:1 transfer ratio with all partners but it’s super hard to accumulate BILT points (of course that changed recently with Rakuten so we’ll have to see if that impacts transfer ratios in anyway).
Meanwhile, Amex and Capital one have lower transfer ratios but earning in their ecosystems are arguably easier (Amex with the lucrative SUBs and Capital One with their lucrative card linked offers.)
Not really surprising though, I’ve been in this game for almost 15 years now and the golden age of award redemptions is long gone. Where we could get solid biz class redemptions almost anytime trans Atlantic for 50k miles one way. You still can if you are flexible enough. But so many people have caught on now, it’s become so diluted. That saying “ if everyone is elite status, no one is,” applies to this too. If everyone has miles, then no one does in a sense. I sort of eased up on redemptions unless it’s too good to miss. But I have found some solid cash tickets decent enough to just buy outright than try to search through many sites looking for award flights. Time will tell.
Before the age of credit card points, imagine two round-trip Pan Am first class from the US west coast to Paris for 100k points (total, not each). Based on actual inflation, today, it would be about 275k points.
Today, it is often the case that AA’s Flagship First from JFK to LAX one-way for one person is 240k points. (As you say, if a person is flexible enough, one can find cheaper prices on oh-dark-thirty flights.)
My sense is that you are right. As with elite status . . . and I would add lounge access . . . too many people have gotten in on it. The banks are doing an advertising full-court-press with these cards. In the past, I never saw TV ads for the CSR or Citi’s travel card. Now, I see them daily . . . everyone can have La Dolce Vita. It’s the new Pee Wee soccer trophy that everyone gets.
It’s disturbing:
– The scarcity of partner award inventory and the effective mandating of organic points.
– This has enabled hyper-inflation in point prices among US legacy carriers.
– Now this.
I’m fortunate to earn more than enough points via ongoing spending. Others aren’t. And, the banks are clamping down on welcome offers among the transferable-point cards. The average person stands little chance.
With all these devaluations, I wonder 10 years from now if award travel will still be as big. Or would most people just look for cashback credit cards
Average Joe also said in 2013 that the end was around the corner. Same in 2018 and 2023. The end is nigh. *Sigh*