Last May, every major transferable currency from Bilt to Capital One temporarily suspended transfers to Emirates Skywards. Although they all came back online, eventually Chase dropped Emirates completely, while Citi, Amex, and Capital One all reduced their transfer ratios.
Later, in December, we received word that Amex would be reducing its transfer ratio to Cathay Pacific Asia Miles from 1:1 to 5:4 starting March 1st of 2026, which left Greg the Frequent Miler wondering, “Is this end of 1:1 transfers?”
Now, we have yet another transfer “pause” from Amex Membership Rewards: ANA Mileage Club:
The message on Amex’ website says that the outage will last until March 2nd and is due to “planned maintenance.” Undoubtedly that’s true, but the question is, is the planned maintenance due to an incoming Amex-to-ANA devaluation?
In Greg’s post from last year, he wondered the following:
What’s next? Amex isn’t the only program that currently offers 1 to 1 transfers to Cathay Pacific. If Cathay Pacific has raised its point prices, we’ll probably see Citi and Capital One reduce their transfer ratios, too. Chase doesn’t partner with Cathay, so nothing will change there. And I expect that Bilt will maintain 1 to 1 transfers as it has done with Emirates. But if the reason behind Amex’s Cathay transfer devaluation is simply that Amex now feels like it’s OK to do this, the other programs will keep their 1 to 1 transfers to Cathay, and we can expect other devaluations from Amex. If so, I bet that ANA will be the next Amex transfer devaluation.
Well, we haven’t seen any other programs devalue Cathay since then.
Amex is the only program that transfers to ANA, so there’s no reason that it has to try and remain competitive with its 1:1 transfers. ANA devalued some its own awards last year, but there still plenty of sweet spots, especially now that one-way bookings are possible with miles. It’s certainly among the most valuable of Amex’s airline transfer partners.
I tend to think that Greg was prescient here, and that 1:1 transfers to ANA will soon be a thing of the past. If Emirates and Asia Miles are anything to go on, Amex won’t move to a reduced transfer ratio immediately, but will give members some advanced notice. However, ANA miles have a hard 36-month expiry (which is part of the reason the whole FM team used a bunch of Greg’s to fly ANA First Class together). Because of that, speculative transfers, once they come back on line, carry significant risk.
Hopefully, all of this is needless fretting, but I have a feeling that ANA will be the next Amex transfer partner to dive below 1:1.
Want to learn more about miles and points? Subscribe to email updates or check out our podcast on your favorite podcast platform.
Why is Tim’s immediate thought on a planned maintenance a potential devaluation?
I’m new to points and miles but are planned maintenances always a sign of a looming devaluation? Cathay Pacific didn’t have a planned maintenance before they announced the reduction in transfer ratio.
Feels like EK all over again.
Haven’t used ANA’s frequent flyer program, but have flown with them. If you get the chance to try their new Business Class on 773, the ‘Room,’ it’s awesome. Often, there are deals connecting through HND or NRT to elsewhere, like SE Asia, that can make it more affordable, even paying cash rates.
I read an article on Amex transfer ratios in Australia. Nothing was 1:1 and the range of ratios was significant. I know the credit card system is totally different there but Amex is definitely learning on what they can get away with.
Well, none of this is really regulated (at least in the US), so these companies can do whatever they wish, however egregious, and we consumers basically are told ‘take it or leave it.’ Maybe we should push for reasonable guardrails, more than just some ‘notice’ of changes, because otherwise it’s gonna be endless nerfs.
This afternoon (Thursday), the Amex website was glacial. Related? Unrelated?
I don’t think this has anything to do with devaluation. The exact same thing happened to NH’s other transfer partner Marriott just a short time ago. It probably has to do with an IT update from the NH side.
Both JAL and ANA aren’t really doing that well financially, considering the explosion of the international tourists visiting Japan. JL is selling its miles more aggressively now than ever in order to generate additional income. NH would probably like to do the same thing soon, by partnering with another program (or two) in addition to AmEx.
Asian programs see they can charge more and bank partners are willing to pay (with reduced transfer ratios). It’s just that simple.
Seems unlikely US programs would be willing to “break the buck” directly but will look for cost savings other ways. Rememer, they enter into long term deals with banks to sell their miles.
@Nick Reyes I don’t think ANA will devalue because AMEX has a partnership with it in Japan. For Cathay Citi has a partnership in Hong Kong so I do not think they will be impacted. Emirates broke its partnership with Citi in Dubai so that is why Citi was first. Else Emirates to Citi would have been 1:1 forever.
I think Citi is coming on as a stronger partner now, behind Bilt and passing Chase.
I couldn’t agree more. For me, I’d take Citi points over either Chase or Amex.
@Tim I also agree I prefer is so good now like I would say the rrv should now be 0.55, but with Bilt/JAL is only powerful then Citi. Alaskan and American are equal to me. So Citi almost caught up with Bilt too