The recently-enhanced Hilton credit card offers are now featuring eye-popping totals in terms of welcome bonus points, with targeted offers reaching as many as 200,000 bonus points after minimum spend requirements and the public offer still being a best-ever 180,000 bonus points after meeting the minimum spending requirement. When I got to thinking about the reasons why the offer is even better than the bonus suggests, I realized how our conservative first-year-value estimate on this card has really undervalued its potential. While I wouldn’t necessarily change our first year value formula, I think that this offer is much more valuable right now than our first year estimate suggests.
Why this card is hot right now
First of all, the current first-year bonus is very strong. While Greg’s recent analysis found the value of Hilton points to have dropped a bit over our previous Reasonable Redemption Value, even at the newly-reduced value of 0.4c per point, the 180,000 total bonus points available on the card are worth $720. That represents a more than decent return on spend by itself. Here is current public bonus info (though see this post for more on the targeted offers available).
| Card Offer and Details |
|---|
140K points ⓘ Non-Affiliate 140K after $3K spend in 6 months. Terms apply. $150 Annual Fee After clicking through, be sure to select the card you want on the next page. Information about this card has been collected independently by Frequent Miler. The issuer did not provide the details, nor is it responsible for their accuracy. Recent better offer: 130K + free night certificate after $2K spend in 3 months [Expired 7/19/23] FM Mini Review: Easy way to secure Hilton Gold status (which offers free breakfast among other perks). Those who want Diamond status may be better off with the Aspire card. Earning rate: ✦ 12X Hilton spend ✦ 6X U.S. restaurants, US Supermarkets, and US gas stations ✦ 4X U.S. Online Retail Purchases ✦ 3X on all other eligible purchases Base: 3X (1.44%) Dine: 6X (2.88%) Gas: 6X (2.88%) Grocery: 6X (2.88%) Shop: 4X (1.92%) Brand: 12X (5.76%) Card Info: Amex Credit Card issued by Amex. This card has no foreign currency conversion fees. Big spend bonus: ✦ Free night award after $15K spend in calendar year ✦ Diamond elite status with $40K calendar year spend ✦ Terms apply Noteworthy perks: Free Gold status. Diamond status w/ $40K spend. ✦ Up to $200 in Hilton credits ($50 per quarter) ✦ Terms Apply. (Rates & Fees) |
![](http://cdn.nextinsure.com/imaging/opt/0fb236dd-aecb-49ed-9f28-94aaf0efd9a2.png?w=300" alt="Hilton Honors American Express Surpass® Card" />)
However, the true story for the first year of value of this card gets a bit better yet. Since the Hilton Honors Surpass card offers a base earning rate of 3 points per dollar spent, you’ll have a total of at least 30,000 points earned after making the required $10,000 in purchases in the first 6 months in order to meet the spending requirement. Coupled with the new cardmember bonus, that would put your balance at a minimum of 210,000 points after meeting the requirements (assuming you haven’t yet used any points).
Keep in mind that the Surpass card offers two 6x bonus categories that are quite useful for most people: you’ll get 6 Hilton points per dollar spent at US supermarkets and 6 Hilton points per dollar spent at US gas stations. If you’re able to meet the entire $10,000 minimum spending requirement via those two categories, you’d have 60,000 points on top of the 180,000 bonus points for a grand total of 240,000 Hilton Honors points (worth $960) after that $10K in purchases and the new cardmember bonus.
But the story gets a bit better yet. This year, as they did last year, Hilton is counting credit card bonus points as base points for the purposes of obtaining Hilton Honors elite status (including lifetime status). Since Hilton has reduced 2021 elite status requirements, you only need to earn 60,000 base points this year for Hilton Diamond status until March 2023. This means that by spending $10,000 on the Surpass card in its 6x bonus categories, you’ll have the 60,000 base points necessary for Diamond status. That’s a great deal since Diamond status would ordinarily require spending $40K in a calendar year (or opening the Hilton Aspire card, which has a $450 annual fee and though well worth the fee to me, that’s not a fit for everyone). Hilton Diamond status doesn’t get many major benefits over Gold, but the most notable difference is that Diamond members get guaranteed club lounge access whereas Gold members need to be upgrade to a club-level room to get access.
Those considering the Surpass card are likely planning to spend $15,000 on the card each calendar year since that amount of calendar-year spend earns a free weekend night. In light of the pandemic, Hilton previously announced that all 2021-issued free weekend night certificates can be used any night of the week and are valid until December 31, 2022. Those factors make it even more compelling to spend toward that milestone.
The Hilton Aspire card (the one with the $450 annual fee) comes with a free weekend night certificate every year, including in the first year. We thus include the value of the free weekend night certificate in the Aspire card’s first-year value (we place the value at $225, though it is obviously possible to get far more value at Hilton’s top-tier hotels). We do not include a free night certificate in the calculation for the Surpass card since that is not a benefit that comes with the card or the new cardmember bonus but is rather an annual big spend bonus. I think we make the correct call in not including it in our first year value for the Surpass card. However, I absolutely think it makes sense to spend for that bonus particularly given the ability to use the free night certificate an night of the week through the end of next year.
If you were to add things together, the potential total first year value is pretty terrific, particularly if you’re able to do the entire $15,000 in spend required for the free weekend night certificate at US gas stations and US Supermarkets (which would yield 90,000 Hilton Honors points based on the spend alone).
Assuming you were able to spend $15,000 in those 6x bonus categories this year, as a new cardmember you would receive:
- 180,000 total bonus points after spending $2K in the first 3 months and $10K in the first 6 months (worth $720)
- 90,000 points from spend at 6x (worth $360)
- Free weekend night certificate (we value these at $225)
- Hilton Diamond status (worth something, but hard to quantify)
In total, that’s $1,305 between the points and free weekend night certificate. That’s an awesome return on a card with a $95 annual fee (and one that is worth holding year after year since it provides Hilton Gold status, which will get you free breakfast at almost all Hilton properties around the world).
That number is far higher than the first-year value number you’ll see on our card page ($445). While there is good reason for the large spread here, I think that those who value the above factors will easily find our first year value estimate far too conservative on this card.
First year value formula values the first year much less here
If you mouse over the estimated first year value of any card on our best offers page, you’ll be prompted to click through to this post explaining that we determine first year value with this formula:
(Estimated value of bonus points + Estimated value of other bonuses)
Minus
(Estimated cost of minimum spend requirement + first year annual fee)
As you can see, we take the value of the bonus and first year benefits and subtract the annual fee and cost of meeting the spend. We determine the cost of meeting the minimum spending requirement based on how much cash back you could have earned by putting that same spend on a credit card that earns 3% cash back. In the case of the Surpass card, this means the “cost” of meeting the spending requirement on the Surpass card instead of a 3%-back card is $180 (you could earn $180 on $10,000 spend on a card offering 3% cash back).
So for the Hilton Surpass card, our best offers page is automatically applying a calculation like this:
- Value of $180K points ($720) – $180 (cost of doing the min spend) – $95 (annual fee) = $445.
That’s why you see a first-year value of $445 on a card that I just said comes with up to $1305 in value this year.
To be clear, I do think that our first year value estimates are properly conservative. We don’t want readers overvaluing a bonus by what it could be rather than what it is reasonably likely to be. And we can’t assume that all people who get the card will continue spending beyond the new cardmember bonus for the free weekend night certificate, nor that all spend will be done in 6x bonus categories. Making those kinds of assumptions would inflate the value of the card beyond a fair comparison point in a way that is not reasonable for everyone.
However, I think that in this specific case, given the additional flexibility of the free weekend night this year, the fact that a cardmember could earn easy Diamond status, and the fact that the total minimum spending requirement puts the free weekend night certificate within easy reach, I think that one would have to be crazy not to finish out the $15K spend required for that certificate and reap all of the rewards above. All factors combined, the Surpass card looks excellent to me right now.
Bottom line
The big question for many considering the Hilton Surpass card will be whether or not it is realistic to spend $15K in the bonus categories this year. Keep in mind that Hilton free weekend night certificates aren’t issued instantly, so you’ll want to leave some time between when you hit the $15K in purchases and the end of the year to be sure that your certificate is issued during 2021 (and therefore valid any night of the week). Unfortunately, Amex last year clawed back bonus points earned at US supermarkets for some people who spent a lot on gift cards during a short-term supermarket promotion. I therefore wouldn’t recommend planning to meet the requirements here with heavy gift card spend. However, between rising gas prices, more people likely to take road trips and stay in vacation rentals, and average family grocery spend, it certainly may be possible for some folks to meet the spending requirement organically in those bonus categories this year. If you fit in that category and like the Hilton Honors program, I think this new offer is as good as it gets.
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I used the surpass in the Conrad Maldives and saved $6000 in the Maldives by redeeming 4 nights (3 with points and one free night). Breakfast was $100 per person each day and we were there a week (my boyfriend I saved $1400 alone). With my Diamond status alone we saved $7400. It is only worth getting this card if you planning on going to Maldives and French Polynesia. I have been to both of these countries and Hilton helped me save a lot of money!
Just to confirm regarding this part ” Hilton is counting credit card bonus points as base points “. I currently have the surpass already and would like to jump on the deal for 180k for the Amex Hilton Biz card. I already put over 15k of spend on my surpass and got my FN with 12/31/22 expiration date so i’m thinking of canceling the card (since i’m at 5 cc with amex) and applying for the hilton biz. i checked and i have roughly 44.5k base points with hilton this year already.
so if i put 15k spend on the new hilton biz card, get the SUB at 10k, get the FN from biz card at 15k spend, i should easily be over 60k base points which should get me diamond status till Mar 2023 right? thanks in advance for responding!
Yes, that should work!
I’m afraid I might have missed something.. Is AMEX still offering the $10 monthly dining credit for the rest of this year even for those who were NOT holding the cards at the beginning of the year? When that promotion came out, I was under the assumption that if you didn’t currently hold the respective AMEX card when the offer came out, you would not be eligible. I only ask because I recently got the Hilton Honors no AF card 3 months ago and the AMEX Gold card a week or two ago. I’m not entitled to a monthly dining credit on those (in addition to the monthly ones you regularly get with the AMEX Gold), am I? I know the no AF Hilton card was only like a $5 monthly credit, but still!
Note that these offers are only for those who’s accounts were active as of January 1, 2021. Those with newer accounts are not eligible.
I dunno. $15,000 is minimum spend for 3-4 or even 5 other new cards each earning 40-60,000 in whatever currency. I think I’ll pass.
A few more bonus points to add to the calculations. Amex has an offer of 3x more points for getting gas at a Phillips 66 or Union 76 station through June 30 for a total of 9x per dollar spent. That offer has given me an additional 1800 points over the last 6 weeks.
That’s good to know. I just realized I also have an Amex offer for 10,000 bonus points for $5,000 in spend. Might be tough, as I’d have to hit $5k by the end of June, but that means I’d only need $10k in total spend to reach Diamond status.
Hmm, I downgraded my Surpass card last year to avoid the annual fee. But the freebie card is almost as good for groceries, gas, and restaurants at 5X. So I could hit 60,000 points for Diamond status with $12k in spend in those categories. Though there’s an opportunity cost to doing so, as I can get better rewards for those categories with other cards, assuming the 0.4 cent value for Hilton points. If I tried to hit $12k from groceries alone, it would “cost” me $120, as I’m in the first year with my Discover It card that’s giving me 3% back on all purchases. (Diamond status plus 60,000 Hilton points worth $240 vs. $360 cash back via the Discover card.)
I would have zero faith AMEX will deliver on the grocery spend, based on my past experience with this card.
My card is due for renewal so I plan to cancel it unless I get some kind of offer to keep it. I already have the Aspire and even w/o that one I still have the platinum to have gold status.
Spending $15K on it seems pointless for 1 free night. Even at a $300 room rate that is 2% return. Spend $15K on something that gives you 3-4 points will usually give you a lot more than 2% (or even 4%) return on your money.
Like the other person, I’m not MS so $15K is a big chunk of change. I’d prefer to use that spend on initial sign up bonus.
It’s also the cheapest card offering Proirty Pass lounge passes
Re: “We determine the cost of meeting the minimum spending requirement based on how much cash back you could have earned by putting that same spend on a credit card that earns 3% cash back. In the case of the Surpass card, this means the “cost” of meeting the spending requirement on the Surpass card instead of a 3%-back card is $180 (you could earn $180 on $10,000 spend on a card offering 3% cash back).” Wouldn’t 3% of $10,000 spend equal $300? Am I missing something?
I didn’t explain that part well at all.
We value Hilton points at 0.4c per point. The Surpass earns 3 points per dollar on unbonused spend, so that’s a return of 1.2%. A 3% cash back card would earn an additional 1.8% on that $10K spend — so the opportunity cost of using the Hilton card is the extra $180 return you could have had.
Got it, that makes total sense. Thank you Nick 🙂
Nick – GREAT post. I love this card. One thing to add. This card also gets 6x at restaurants. I know you probably didn’t include since you can do better on other cards. But 6x (2.4%) isn’t terrible for a $95 AF card. I just shift my restaurant spend to this card until I hit the $15k free night to get as much of the$15k as possible at 6x, then go back to better earning cards after. As a family of 5, it not hard to do $10k of the $15k needed for free night organically in the 6x categories. That will get you to the 60,000 pts needed this year for Diamond status. The point is, you don’t need all of the $15k to get FN cert to also reach the 60,000 pts needed to get Diamond status (this year only).
So here’s the $15,000 question. How does one organically spend 15K at supermarkets, and gas stations in 6 months? You mentioned AMEX clawbacks on high gift card spend, so that’s not an option. I don’t own a restaurant or a bar, so, not gonna happen that way. I know, “I can tell you, but then I’ll have to kill you” is probably the only answer I’m gonna get to this question, but That is the question.
My family easily spends more than $1K per month on groceries and I’d not be worried about mixing in a gift card here and there with grocery spend. We’ve got some road trips planned this summer. Obviously everyone’s situation is different, but spending $15K or nearly $15K organically in those categories isn’t a huge stretch. For those for whom it is a stretch, an extra tax payment here in the next few days would make it fairly easy.
Thanks for responding Nick,
It’s just my wife and me here. I don’t know if I’m a typical “miler” or not, but we don’t have huge tax payments, most years we get a small refund. We certainly don’t spend $1K per month on groceries. When we do travel, we fly, thanks to this hobby, and all of the help from the miles/points bloggers. We can’t even make SUB’s of $5K/3 months happen, unless I buy a lot of VGC’s. We may be relatively small fish, but thanks to this hobby, we’ve been able to travel like 4 stars on our 2 star budget. I would love to grab some of the big deals you and Greg post, but I don’t know the hidden tricks, now that Redbird is dead. Thanks for you insight on the Choice 75K offer. I did jump on that one. How about talking to Greg about a resource page for us little fish. E-mail me if you’d like.
Important note, restaurants are also 6x. Shift some restaurant spend over to this card until you reach the $15k in all categories. You should be close to the 60,000 points needed for Diamond. It doesn’t all have to be at 6x, that’s just a theoretical way to get a ton of points.
For example, you can reach 60,000 points by spending $10k on 3x everywhere categories and $5k on 6x gas, grocery and dining. Gets you to FN cert and Diamond status. Lots of combinations will work.
If you have any Hilton paid stays, that’s at 12x plus 18x for being Gold member. Just gets you there faster yet.
Wouldn’t it be easier to wait for a promo, pay $1,600 for 320,000 HH points instead?
Why?
You don’t have to spend 15,000 (or whatever the required spend is) on one card for points that only work on Hilton properties. I would rather put it on a Amex Platinum or a gold card, get the Gold Hilton status from that, and be more flexible with my points.
Do you value 15K Membership rewards points (earned at 1x on the Platinum card) more highly than 90K Hilton points + a free night certificate? I wouldn’t make that trade. You wouldn’t even get Hilton Gold status with the Amex Gold, so that’s an entirely different thing. I love transferable currencies, but I don’t know as though those options make more sense for $15K spend. In order to earn the $1600 in cash back to buy the points you’ve referenced above, you’d have to spend more than $50K at 3% back. Again, not saying that earning cash back and using it to buy points when you need them is a bad strategy, it’s just not necessarily a better one here.
Yeah, but a free night certificate is only good for a standard room at most Hilton hotels (and you can’t use them on higher end properties— I tried). So the free cert is not worth it — for me. Also, I think you’re mixing too many numbers. To spend $15K to get 90K Hilton point (which are valued at .04 cpp) rather than spend 1,600 to get 320,000 (albeit at .05 cpp) on an Amex Platinum (my bad about the Gold card reference) that will give you Good status seems to me a no-brainer. You get more valuable points from Amex, Gold status and 320,000 points for a lesser spend plus the points are the equivalent of three free night certificates (if the standard room rate for them is 90K). I’m a little surprised you don’t see this.
And I would never spend that much money to earn 3% cash back to buy points! Where did that come from?
And the 90K is assuming you’re aiming for mid-tier to higher-end hotels, not a Hilton Garden Inn or Hampton Inn
In your example, you will have to pay Hilton $1600 for 320K Hilton points and earn 1600 Amex points. To get 90K Hilton points, you will have to pay Hilton $450 and earn 450 Amex points.
In Nick’s example, he is not paying $15k to get 90K Hilton points. Instead, he is using either organic spend (He will get $15K worth of merchandise or services plus 90K Hilton points) or manufacture spend. If Nick uses manufacture spend, the only cost is to do the manufacture spend, which is way less than paying $450 to Hilton.
I thought the Hilton free night certificate is for all Hilton properties, including high-end.
Yes it (FNC) should work at all properties with a standard night award available.
@Aloha88 —
Exactly! Not all Hilton properties have standard night awards. That’s all I’m saying. It may suit your (in general) needs — just not mine.
@ AlexL —
I understand the manufacture spend theory. I guess I wouldn’t do that for just 90k in Hilton honor when you can get more than 3x that by paying in points. Maybe I’m missing something but I feel there’s a better way.
@Nick Reyes —
I respect you like crazy. You have more knowledge of this game than I ever will. Again, maybe I’m missing something in your logic, but I don’t get a manufacture spend for so little points.
The goal is to get what amounts to a rebate on your spend. If you’re going to spend $15k on the 6x categories anyway, then the surpass is a consideration among other cards. Simply buying points for approximately what they’re worth isn’t the same thing, you’d be better off just paying directly for the hotel room (usually).
@PartsUnknown —
I see you logic now. Thanks
In terms of properties excluded from free night certificates, it if basically timeshare places, all-inclusive properties, and a couple of other limited exceptions. You can use them at plenty of top-tier priories around the world (including places like the Waldorf-Astoria Maldives, Conrad Bora Bora and more. Here’s the list of exclusions: https://hiltonhonors3.hilton.com/en/promotions/weekend-reward.html
This list is not exhaustive. Case in point: Beach Village at the Del — Coronado Island, CA. Yes, it’s a Curio Collection, so maybe some or all Curios are excluded from the free cert. I have to watch my wording because yes, Waldorf Astoria Maldives and Conrad Koh Samui allow the free certs — but not many others. The new Waldorf Astoria Monarch Beach in Dana Point, CA accepts free certs — but the rooms are standard (I.e. really small). Thanks for showing us this list, Nick. Again, Hilton needs to update this because it’s not exhaustive.
If you have already earned a SUB on the Aspire, a potential benefit in year 2 of holding the Surpass is an upgrade bonus to Aspire. Though not guaranteed, it seems like people get this pretty regularly.
Great point!
DP – I just finished my $15K spend on my Hilton Surpass paying my taxes. My free night cert arrived in about a week. YMMV
Me too, I’ve earned about 60,000 from regular spending, with a significant portion at grocery stores plus 30,000 for spending 5,000 3 x plus I earned a free night. So 90,000 points and a free night and a $10 dining credit per month which more than offsets the annual fee. These sub $100 annual fee card are so under rated. (Also both Marriott Amex cards, Personal which you can only get from downgrading and the Buisness)
@Anthony: I added the restaurant credit after you commented, but a reader in Frequent Miler Insiders reminded me that credit is only available for those who had their accounts as of January 1, 2021 — it doesn’t apply to new accounts.
I guess I’m just too small a fish to grab that hook. I don’t own a business, and have never had a tax bill anywhere near large enough to make one of these large spend routes possible for me. I only play the gift card/money order game, and very lightly at that compared to most.
Keep in mind that if you pay more than you owe in taxes, you typically get a refund. That’s not tax advice and keep in mind that refunds sometimes get held up.
Richard, do you own a home and pay property taxes? We had our mortgage company NOT escrow our taxes and we pay them ourselves. Same with our insurance. We live in a city, so our taxes are higher than if we were in the ‘burbs.
I’m retired. My husband does have a small business, but we live off of our investments. We pay quarterly estimated tax payments. I instruct our accountant to not pay our taxes out of any credit balance from last year’s estimated payments. AKA if we overpaid last year, don’t apply it to this year’s estimated payments. Also, every year my husband converts some of his traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. We pay taxes on it now, which are supposed to be lower now than if he took it out later. (Who knows?) Anyway, this year he screwed up and converted twice…. so more taxes.
Thanks Dee, Yes I do own my home free and clear. No mortgage. Annual property taxes are just over $600. Yes, that’s right $600! Homeowners insurance is about $1000 annually. Not reaching big spend that way. The converting of Traditional IRA to Roth is something I’ve never considered, but it is intriguing. It’s just my wife and me playing the game here, and we’re not big players. We’re on a limited income, but thanks to this hobby, we’ve been able to travel like 4 stars, on a 2 star budget. When Redbird was around, I built a nice stash of points/miles riding that gravy train, but as we all know, that ride didn’t last, and I don’t want to deal with the hassles of Walmart and Bluebird now that Kate machines are few and far between. Anyway, what I guess I’m trying to say is, “Man, I’ve love to be able to do some of these deals that Greg and Nick post about, but I just can’t seem to find a way to spend enough to make it happen”. I did jump on the Choice 75K offer, yesterday, after reading Nick’s post, and was instantly approved. So, how does a small fish swim in the big water?
I get it, Richard. We all do what we can do. Congrats on the instant approval on the Choice offer. RE: taxes and insurance – Wow!
To answer your last question, Greg and Nick have a post about it https://frequentmiler.com/manufactured-spending-complete-guide/
Hopefully, there is something there that could work for you. I miss the Redbird days, too.