Yesterday, Greg published a post about buying Aeroplan points for 1.2c each. That’s a great deal — Aeroplan points are frequently worth much more. But yet despite the deal it is, I wasn’t very tempted to buy and that made me question the logic of some of my choices. After all, as Greg noted, we’re always buying points and I’ve been accumulating bank bonuses for the last couple of years. Why am I not a buyer of Aeroplan points at 1.2c each? I’m not sure I have a logical answer.
We’re always buying points
Greg made a point in the post that we’ve both written about before: we’re always “buying” points, even when indirectly. It is (almost) always possible to earn cash back in the games we play, so every time we choose to earn a point or mile, we’ve traded the opportunity to earn cash. That’s effectively like purchasing the miles.
The recent Betterment deal was a perfect illustration of this: shopping portal Rakuten briefly offered $127.50 cash back for opening a checking account with Betterment and depositing at least $1. Those of us who choose to earn Amex Membership Rewards points instead of cash through Rakuten earned 12,750 points. Choosing to earn points over cash in that situation is a clear trade: I could have had $127.50, but instead I took 12,750 points — effectively buying Membership Rewards points for 1c each.
In that case, it is a good trade. Not only am I confident that I’ll use Membership Rewards points at a better value, I know that it is possible to someday grab the Schwab Platinum card and cash out the points at a value of 1.25c each — which means that my Betterment Membership Rewards points are really worth $159.38 in cash (12,750 points x 1.25c per point = $159.38). By taking the bonus in Membership Rewards points, I added the flexibility to leverage one of Amex’s transfer partners or to convert to more cash in the future.
But not all trades are quite as strong. In the recent discussion about undervaluing airline miles, a couple of readers suggested that we should value miles based on the purchase price at which we (meaning the collective “we”) would be buyers. My first thought was that it is tough to say with certainty where my “buy” point is and I think that it logically changes based on circumstances. Greg said yesterday that he has a ton of Star Alliance miles from canceled trips, so he isn’t interested in buying more Star Alliance miles right now. Surely there would be some price point at which he would feel compelled to buy, but 1.2c wasn’t it. If he didn’t have those Star Alliance miles, maybe he would buy.
And yet both he and I and many readers buy points every day. Take dining spend as an easy example. The US Bank Altitude Go and Brex Cash card both offer 4% back on dining with no annual fee. I have the Brex Cash card, so any time I spend $1 on dining and choose to use another card, I am making a trade:
- 4 Membership Rewards (Amex Gold Card) = buying points at $0.01 per point
- 3 Ultimate Rewards (Chase Freedom Unlimited or Sapphire Reserve) or Thank You points (Citi Premier) = buying points at $0.01333 per point
- 2x Ultimate Rewards (Chase Ink Cash) = buying points at $0.02 per point
- 1x card = buying points at $0.04 per point
That last example is painful: a trade to pay 4 cents per point would never be worth it. However, I’ll admit to having used a Chase Ink Plus or Chase Ink Cash for a restaurant purchase when those cards were handy and others weren’t (in fact, I handed my wife her Chase Ink Cash card in the Panera drive-through just yesterday — don’t worry, the charge was only about $2, but it still represented a poor-value points purchase). In the case of Ultimate Rewards points at 1.33c each or Membership Rewards points at 1c each, neither is a bad deal given ways to cash out the points for greater value, but that’s not quite the whole story in either situation since you’ll also need a premium card to get those higher cash out rates. Suffice it to say that we make trades like this all the time when we swipe our credit cards. Each swipe comes at some cash cost. I am indirectly buying points on most of my purchases at a rate of 1c per point or less, but there have certainly been times when someone in my household has used a card that earns 1x or 2x in a situation where we could have alternatively used the Bank of America Premium Rewards card for 2.625% back given our Platinum Honors status. In those cases, we’ve purchased points at rates well over 1cpp (an error that I’ve been working to stop).
The age-old question: are points worth what they buy or what they save you?
The chicken-vs-egg debate of the points and miles world has long been where to value your points between what they buy you and what they save you. Some people thought that Greg should have figured the point value for Delta based on the cheapest cash rate of any carrier for the same city pairs/dates (in that case valuing points based on what they save the traveler based on the next cheapest alternative to using points), whereas others definitely want to fly Delta and thus thought Greg correct to value the points based on the price of the product they buy (after all, many people pay the cash price for that product even though it is more expensive than others).
Gary Leff at View from the Wing has long advocated for the value of miles being the price point at which you would be equally happy holding either points or cash. Take Membership Rewards points for instance. Someone who has the Schwab Platinum card may be equally happy holding points or cash if the price point were 1.25c per point. At that price point, the Schwab Platinum cardholder can convert to cash without losing any value (I acknowledge the collective cringe of the economists thinking of the time cost of money, but let’s keep things simple here) and they also gain the additional benefit of potentially using the points to much more value via Membership Rewards transfer partners. For someone who does not yet have the Schwab Platinum, the price point at which they are equally happy with points or money may be a bit lower given the extra hassle of having to apply for the Schwab card and be approved (though the welcome bonus more than mitigates the first-year fee). And for someone who has an immediate need for either the cash or the points, the price points at which they would trade would differ yet again. To be clear, all of those situations may apply to any individual depending on the sliver in time during which they are presented with the opportunity to buy more points (as evidenced by Greg’s declaration that he isn’t a buyer now but that he might be under different personal circumstances).
And so I found myself trying to decide at what price point I would be equally happy with cash or Aeroplan points and I found the answer more difficult than I thought.
Am I willing to spend the cash to buy premium cabin awards? Probably not.
Greg made a point in his post that those like me who have been riding the bank bonus train can look at those bank bonuses in terms of the points they buy. That’s an argument I’ve made before. I’ve said in the past that a $300 or $400 bank account bonus could be viewed as a 60,000-point or 80,000-point Hilton Honors bonus – without a new credit account – since those points are so frequently on sale for half a cent each.
Last year, my wife and I made about $4700 in bank account bonuses (new checking account and brokerage bonuses). This year, we are on track to eclipse that number. We have been collecting those bonuses intending to invest some of the money and use some of the money to cover travel expenses. Buying miles could certainly fit the definition of the latter.
And when I think of the potentially great uses of Aeroplan points and I follow the temptation to justify using my “found money” (earned from clicks of the mouse on those checking account bonuses) to buy a better travel experience than what the cash could otherwise buy, I am highly tempted to buy some points. In fact, I thought about Brex right away: the 110,000 points from the Brex Cash account (since expired) could be redeemed for $1100 which in turn could buy 91,000 Aeroplan points. Aeroplan offers (or will soon offer?) family pooling, so if my wife and I each redeemed our Brex bonuses for cash, we could combine forces and put together 182,000 Aeroplan miles. That would be enough Aeroplan points to buy 3 seats (for my wife, my older son, and me) to travel to Europe in business class while leaving us just 500 miles shy of a lap infant ticket for our youngest son (Aeroplan now charges 2500 miles for a lap infant regardless of class of service). Spending $2200 for that seems like a great deal on the surface.
But it bumps me up against the same dilemma I discussed last year when Chase debuted the ability to “Pay Yourself Back” for grocery purchases (available through 4/30/21): I have to ask myself whether I’m willing to spend $2200 on 3 (and a half) one way tickets to Europe.
In many instances, that would be a great deal for economy class. On last weekend’s podcast, Greg made an off-the-cuff remark about the reasonable and likely cost of economy class airfare to Asia being something like $1500 or $2,000 round trip. He’s probably right about that in a lot of instances. I know that many people spend similar sums to travel to Europe in economy class. And through that lens, trading $2200 for 182,000 Aeroplan miles is a fantastic trade that almost feels like a no-brainer for someone in position to do it.
However, I guess I don’t necessarily look at values in terms of average airfares. My wife and I were bitten by the travel bug long before we had the means to travel comfortably. Rather than choosing a destination and dates and planning a trip that fit those parameters, we long chose our destinations by price. When we saw an airfare deal that fit our budget, we went where it took us. Before we discovered miles and points, apart from one last-minute unexpected return from Europe that was more expensive, I don’t think we ever spent more than $500 round trip on airfare. And we did get to see some of the world: Ireland (albeit in January) for $250 round trip from New York, Abu Dhabi for $187 round trip from New York (an Etihad Christmas Day price mistake years ago that held up), Honolulu nonstop from New York for $450 round trip when that route debuted, and there were plenty more examples. We simply went where the (economy class) airfare sales took us. We had the advantage of not having kids in school (I do dread spending 20 years beholden to the school schedule), but the fact is that we were happy once to see the world one airfare sale at a time and could be happy doing that again. I fully recognize that many (most?) people would rather pick a destination and the best dates and plan a trip around that and as such would have a different perspective on airfare. But in my case, I would likely travel far less if I were actively considering $1,500 or $2,000 round trip fares.
And so I look at the Aeroplan award chart and ask myself: how much am I willing to pay per one way ticket? I certainly prefer to fly in premium cabins now that the magic of miles and points has spoiled me. But am I willing to pay 1.2c per point to do it? From North America, the business class ranges to various continents along with the cash equivalent at 1.2c per point are:
- Atlantic Region (roughly Europe & Africa and Eastward to around India): 60K ($720) to 100K ($1200)
- Pacific Zone (Asia and Australia/Oceania): 55K ($660) to 105K ($1260)
- South America: 50K ($600) to 60K ($720)
Those ranges are fantastic compared to international business class fares. And back to the point about “normal” airfares, I’d say that those rates are probably quite good even in comparison to economy fares between regions in many instances. But I have to ask myself just how much cash I’m willing to trade for my family of 3 or 4 to visit these regions and that becomes more challenging. I look at the Atlantic region and ask if at the top end (100K points one-way) I would be willing to pay $1200 per passenger times 3 or 4 passengers in my family for one-way business class and the price seems steep. Round trip that would be like spending nearly $10,000 for four seats. Sure, I could earmark last year’s bank bonuses and this year’s bank bonuses to cover that type of trip – but would I really do that? For some readers, that could be an amazing savings (and once again, the ability to pool miles means that several family members could buy the limit of Aeroplan points and later combine them). However, I wouldn’t spend $10K on airfare for a single trip.
In my case, that is at least partially because I have ways to generate Aeroplan points for less than 1.2c each (most notably through Amex Membership Rewards welcome bonuses, category bonuses, and referral bonuses) and also because I’m just not willing to spend that much in cash for flights alone.
My answer would surely be totally different if I were just topping off part of the points needed for a big trip or if I were about to otherwise buy airfare and the sale would either save me money or cost me only marginally more than I would otherwise spend for airfare. But in this case, neither is true. I’ll hold out and continue to build my chest of points through big bonuses and cheaper point purchases via category bonuses and shopping portals.
But my feelings on this are clearly hypocritical
If I truly wouldn’t spend the cash to buy Aeroplan points at 1.2c each, how could I ever justify transferring points to Aeroplan? As I hinted at above, I’ll mentally justify the transfer someday when I want to book a trip by saying that I acquired Membership Rewards points at a much lower cost per point via welcome bonuses, referral bonuses, category bonuses, etc. Many of us play that mental justification game.
But the truth is that if I make a transfer to Aeroplan, it comes at the opportunity cost of not converting those points to cash at a rate of 1.25c per Membership Rewards point via the Schwab Platinum card. Essentially, if make a transfer to Aeroplan after this sale has ended, I will have indirectly paid 1.25c per Aeroplan point by choosing the points transfer over the cashout. That is a trade that I have made before and if I am being honest with myself it is a trade I am likely to make again in the future — and both then and someday when, I imagine I’ll have pushed the cash cost out of my mind when hitting the transfer button.
And so that circles me back to the sale here: should I be buying Aeroplan points for 1.2c each? My behavior says that I should (I’ve transferred more-valuable Membership Rewards points before and I say I am likely to do it again). It doesn’t logically make sense, but I probably won’t trade cash now to be able to cash out my points for (slightly more) value in the future.
It does make me wonder though at what price I am willing to part with cash for points? That brings me back to dining spend: I’m generally happier earning a transferable currency than cash for dining spend, so my purchase point for transferable points is somewhere between 1c and 1.33c per point. My purchase point for specific airline miles then has to be lower. If that’s true (and I’m still not totally convinced that it is), it means I likely won’t ever be buying airline miles directly unless topping up an account for a quick redemption since nobody sells their miles for less than a penny each. That’s OK on the one hand – I usually don’t recommend buying miles without a specific near-term use in mind. But I am still troubled by my reluctance to trade less cash now for Aeroplan points than I will likely trade later by giving up Membership Rewards points for Aeroplan points. I suppose the spread (0.05 cents) isn’t enough to trade cash right now. At least, that’s part of the story I’ll tell myself for the moment.
But very much like Chase stole my joy of free when they made points easy to cash out at 1.5c each, Aeroplan’s latest sale will make me re-think my future transfers from Membership Rewards in terms of cash value. That’s good on the one hand, but less fun than I usually like miles and points to be.
Bottom line
Yesterday’s sale on Aeroplan points made me stop and think because I think I value Aeroplan points at more than 1.2c each, but I don’t feel a compulsion to buy them at that price. I had to ask myself why not? And after all of the above thought, I came back to the question “At what price point am I a buyer of Aeroplan points?” Surely I’d buy at half the current sale price (0.6c per point) as that would make business class awards only marginally more expensive than the cheapest economy class fare sales (and likely a premium I’d realistically be willing to pay to fly my family up front). But where does my purchase point stop? And what does it say that I’ve willingly (albeit indirectly) purchased them for more in the past and would likely do so again in the future? Maybe I’m feeling a pull towards cash back and away from points. I would be far from the only person to have felt that change over time. The kid in me still wants to fly up front and stay at fancy resorts using the funny money I collect through the games we play – and truthfully, I’ll probably still do a lot of that. But the math is keeping me honest and some time away from travel has gotten me to reevaluate some. This sale will be on my mind long after it is over — not so much for the opportunity I missed as for what it means about my redemption patterns in the future.
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Love this article! It’s in my nature to optimize, my brain just loves to do it. Points has been my new covid hobby. Between subs, and business spend, close to 400k ur, and 200k mr in less than a year.
I recently did my first MR redemption for a couple of Delta econ tickets to Nashville. After looking at all of the possible ways to redeem, I came up with Amex Biz Platinum w/rebate at 40k, essentially getting 1.5cpp.
Did a UR transfer to Hyatt at a hot hotel, and also got 1.5cpp
I love the flexibility of cash, but points do have that “potential” to be higher. I’ve even thought, why not just take the cash back, book hotels and flights with hotel cards, then use the cash to pay off those cards. Getting similar baseline value with some of the earnings and perks.
Anyways, I think the biggest overlook are SUBS. As long as there are fat intro bonuses for points, or 4-5x categories then those systems have an edge.
When the enticing subs run out, I could possibly see cash back as an end game.
My first step into this hobby was buying all the points I needed for 6 tickets in biz directly from the airlines. I did a terrible job optimizing those points but still came out hugely ahead vs paying cash so the “points are cash” framework has always been native to me. I’ve long preferred the points but COVID changed that and now I’m all-in on cash back. You always have last seat availability with cash and you even earn points on those flights.
The salient point here, as I see it, is that one has the opportunity now to prepay an award ticket, using an example above, 60k to Europe for $720. The choice to purchase aeroplan miles now or not, does not increase the value tomorrow when trading in points from MR, UR or some other star alliance currency for a saver award business class ticket to/from Europe. Regardless of the ticket price, it could be had now for $720 locked in. So that’s the dollar value of a business class award ticket to Europe when there is saver award availability on star alliance.
Aha, so you have doubts now? Back when we argued about buying miles (well, you argued, not me, LOL), you said you disagreed with my assertion because we always pay for miles even when we don’t. Well, while this is true in a broader, philosophical sense, how about just saying a big fat NO to paying cash for miles — at least during the times of uncertainty like now? To me there is always a difference between a passive way of getting my travel currency (earning miles instead of cashback) and an active way of blowing my goddamn hard earned money.
Now, I will admit that I’m saying this with a certain degree of arrogance. I have enough miles/points to last me for a few years of travel because I mostly fly alone. I could feel differently if I needed to put a family of 3-4 into lie-flat seats. 🙂
Of course, all these riches can turn into a pumpkin overnight, but that’s an even better argument against paying for something we have no control over.
whoo — that was a long read. But I do appreciate the different thoughts. I like Larry K’s example below about “would you spend an extra $4 for 204 UR?” While I will try to remember to use my 3% card at the gas station or whatever, I really don’t sweat the spending equation at all. Because the difference between 2% or 3% on all my purchases over the whole year is really in the noise, point-wise, and dollar-wise. 1) It’s way less that what I get for even one signup bonus. 2) Especially the last year my credit-card-possible spending is very low. 3) I’m usually working on meeting some min-spend bonus.
The “cash-out” side of things is a different set of psychological contortions to justify keeping the points. I look on it as having won this really fun toy and I’m going to keep the toy rather than convert it to $. It’s a bit of the thrill, while we can always work a little more to make more $. If I was in danger of not paying my gas bill, then it’d be different.
I wouldn’t pay cash for points, unless topping up for an award because 1) I have lots of points and I’m not traveling enough to burn what I have. 2) But even if I had no points already, I’m not sure I would, say, pay $1500 for enough points for a R/T Business class to Europe because A) I could fly coach for half that and B) The risk of availability/deval/crappy routing with points.
The value of points and miles is mostly based on your class. Are you comfortably paying your bills, eating out often, house mortgage not at risk, etc? Then maybe buying points makes sense. Are you paycheck to paycheck? I’ve got a friend who is wealthy and thinks intentionally and strategically collecting points is a waste of their time. I’ve got many friends and some family who are paycheck to paycheck and they rarely have money and time to travel, so when I offer them a “free” points ticket, they are elated; in fact, getting the time off is much harder for them, some juggling multiple jobs and commitments. They would never ever buy points. They are part of the 99% of the population that doesn’t understand strategically earning points and miles. I’m somewhere between paycheck to paycheck and comfortable. I have a side reselling hustle so I accumulate a fair amount of points. I strategically choose the best credit card promotion on every purchase over $25. At the end of the day, my top 4 points earnings: Amex MR, Citi TY, US Bank Altitude, Cash. I mostly use the cash to pay for travel expenses that those 3 currencies, along with the other points and miles from other programs, don’t cover. I’d consider buying Aeroplan at 1.2 if I had a specific redemption in mind, didn’t have a way to get the same or similar ticket with the flexible points I have amassed, and I had enough cash leftover that wasn’t allocated for survival and miscellaneous travel expenses. These promotions by Aeroplan are aimed at middle or upper middle income people who understand that using Aeroplan miles bought at 1.2 is better than paying cash. It’s a relatively small subset of the population, but much larger than the points and miles community.
To me the hardest part of this hobby is learning how to accurately value miles and points. That’s why I love articles like this. Thanks for posting.
I saw it mentioned a few times here but what are you views on the Schwab Platinum card?
Wait for a better offer? Swap the regular platinum for it?
I recently opened a Schwab brokerage account and it will likely get more money since they acquired my other brokerage.
I’ve never seen a “better offer” on the Schwab Platinum — it’s always the standard 60K after $5K. No more, no less. I guess an argument in favor of it right now could be made for the temporary monthly PayPal credits, though at this point you’ve missed two of those.
More importantly, I think the time to open the Schwab Platinum is when you’re ready to cash points out.
Thanks for the thoughtful post. I have never (although I would consider it in the future) directly purchased airline points, although I have purchased hotel points directly a few times. I also have moved away from credit cards that earn airline miles and currently am using cards that earn transferable points (primarily), cash back, and Hyatt points (Hyatt because of promotions and earning elite nights).
My thought process (not sure I can call it logic) is:
Related to the second point, I have taken international business class flights and stayed at luxury hotels using points and miles, but I would have never considered paying the cash prices for many of these experiences. One of the big reasons I participate in the points and miles hobby is to be able to travel more comfortably and to stay in places that I could not justify if I was spending actual cash.
Another important and highly individual factor is how many (and what type of points) someone has, and how they anticipate using them. Since I only need to purchase airline tickets for myself, and I have over one million points across airline specific programs, these points (and my transferable points) are more than sufficient for several years of travel given my usage.
But, I am keeping an open mind about cashing out a small amount of UR points at 1.5 cpp.
Great points! Being able to buy something that I would never buy with cash is a massive part of the appeal of the hobby. I guess the dilemma I’m constantly butting up against is the reminder of the cash cost the redemptions – which at least in some cases still on the high end.
Life certainly changes some priorities. COVID was a big factor for many. For us, cash is king and the best way for banks to entice me to use them for my spending will be large initial bonuses for large need purchases which are coming. I miss travel though as do many, so if there’s a initial offer too good to pass up I’ll seriously consider it especially since I’m well below 5/24 and such things. One thing that could help airlines and the travel industry in general even more going forward could be the government pre-buying hotel nights and airline tickets at a discount so they can resell back to people and give them part of the discounts. Some countries are doing this so that the governments get their money back with some gains while enticing travelers to do what it takes to get what’s required physically, passing along some good deals to travelers and helping the travel industry with all their workers to prevent unemployment. Is this a viable option for the U.S.? Can their political machine handle this like some countries? Could it be fair and not lopsided in this nation? This is just a question and curious if this might work. Every country runs things differently so not sure if this would work in a positive way for the U.S. Vaccines get distributed better around the world when planes actually have passengers since a lot of cargo gets around that way. I realize some things work better in some countries where it wouldn’t work as well here. Just something I’m pondering. Nothing is simple, but discussion between all parties seems to help. No government is perfect, but it’s supposed to work for the general population. I’m sure this has been discussed, but I’m wondering what other thought are on this; the pros and cons.
Maybe it’s because I don’t MS, but I think buying points directly is different than buying them incidentally via other purchases. Even then it’s more nuanced for UR/MR/TYP vs airline miles and hotel points.
Returning to the original example of aeroplan miles, I would only buy directly if I had a relatively immediate use for them as doing so is prepaying for travel. On the other hand, buying them incrementally alongside other things I would be buying anyway feels different as the prepayment for travel is smoothed over a much longer horizon and can be cut off at any point. This is also why I hold my transferable points in their original forms for as long as possible and don’t speculatively transfer them every time there is a transfer bonus.
The premium cash booking price is obviously unworkable as a method of valuation for most people. But the economy cash booking price (whether on the same flight or not) typically undervalues points since you’d probably pay something for premium. I think the ideal, albeit complicated method, is to first arrive at an anchor price by looking for an alternative booking you would pay cash for then think about how much more you’d hypothetically pay for the upgrade.
Boy, this issue is so subjective — not only person to person, but even year to year for the same person.
If I imagine a stash of, say, 100,000 Membership Reward points and try to answer the question “how much would I sell them for” (if it were possible to sell points — this is just a thought exercise)?
When I was young, I would easily have cashed them in for $2,000 or 2 cpp. Then I would have bought a $400 (or less) ticket to Europe and used the $1600 to travel around for a month or two, staying in hostels and bussing / hitchhiking around. Those 100K points transferred to cash would have been “worth” two months of adventure. I might even take 1.5 cpp.
Now, I look at those points as a business class r/t fare to Europe or almost to Asia (through a transfer to ANA). At this time in my life, I’m not going to take two months for a trip and I’m flush enough with both money and other points to not worry very much about the costs for a three week trip. Perversely, those points are probably worth a little more to me than the cost of the business class flight they would buy since I’m still unlikely to drop $5,000 (or whatever) on round-trip airfare so doing it with points allows me to have the experience I’m not willing to pay for. So, I’d probably want north of 5 cpp for those points right now.
In ten years, if I’m healthy enough to travel in retirement, I expect things will look completely different — with my interest on long stays in by-the-month rental apartments. At that point I’ll probably be able to leverage smaller amounts of cash into long, interesting stays and I may be more in the cash-back market.
Subconsciously, people treat cash they earn through their labor (i.e. their job) than the cash they *could* earn through things like credit card spending. Should they? Maybe not. But they do, all the time. Also, there is at least the possibility outsize value earned through things like points – there is little chance of outsize value from cash back.
For me, buying points is just one strategy to add to balances for various redemptions. But the bar is higher for purchasing points with earned cash.
Part of it is not just the time value of money but also the problem that programs devalue and change their rules constantly. The value of cash and Amex and thank you and chase points is always a little bit higher than the subject-to-devaluation currency we can exchange them for. The value of miles never goes up.
Also, it is probably not just age. The truth is that there is a psychological barrier to understanding that you really are buying points every time you swipe your card. We know it. But our brains do not let us believe it. Imagine if miles were not automatic. Imagine instead that every time you buy something someone would ask you if you wanted to pay extra for miles. So, you are at Home Depot and you spend $200 on stuff. You are about to swipe your card when the cashier says, sir would you like to add $4 to buy 204 Chase points? We would say no but we do it. For potential preferred rewards members you are paying closer to 5.2 cents.
I am gradually coming around to the idea that anything other than preferred rewards is irrational. Yeah, with all my various cards I almost never earn just 1x so the question is never as stark as my hypothetical cashier question. But the effort and annual fees required to get 4x on this category or 3x on that category to get currencies that are subject to devaluation and require me to spend $30 a month on juicy miles to optimize have a cost too. And yes those looking for status by spend on the Hyatt card or EQD for spend on the AA card have different math. I used to scoff at the bogleheads who insist that everyone should get $100k in investments in Merrill use the 2.625 card, and be done with it all. Ha, look at those poor suckers flying coach and not getting hotel upgrades or free breakfast! I think they may get the last laugh. Like the joy of free commenter last year at some point I have to just admit that I am in this hobby in part just for the hobby aspect.