How often do transfer bonuses come around?

On September 1st, Amex unleashed an unprecedented* twelve transfer bonuses from Membership Rewards to airline and hotel programs [* Actually, it was once-precedented: the same thing happened on September 1st 2021].  Most of those transfer bonuses end when September ends.  That begs the question: if you have a healthy stash of Amex points, should you transfer before the month is over?  If you have an immediate high value use for the points, then sure.  But what if you don’t have a near term need for the points but you’re still confident you’ll use the points to good value eventually?  Then the question becomes: how long will we have to wait until the next transfer bonus rolls around?  If the bonus is likely to come back soon then there’s no need to hurry.  If the bonus is a rare event, then it’s worth considering jumping on it now.   Fortunately, we keep a running list of transfer bonuses, both current and expired, on our Current Transfer Bonuses page.  For the current Amex transfer bonuses, I dug through that list to find which bonuses are common and which are rare.  Here’s what I found…

Airlines

AeroMexico (Rare)

Most transferable points transfer one to one to AeroMexico.  That’s usually a bad deal even with a transfer bonus because AeroMexico charges more for their awards than many other programs.  Amex Membership Rewards, though, standardly transfers 1,000 to 1,600 to AeroMexico and so a transfer bonus from Amex can be interesting… especially when you find expanded Delta award availability.

When we will see the next bonus?  Maybe September 2023.  As you can see below, transfer bonuses from Amex to AeroMexico happen only about once per year.  So, if you think you may want to take advantage of the current bonus, I’d recommend searching for awards before the end of this month.  If you find good pricing, you’ll be able to get almost 2 AeroMexico points for every Amex point transferred during the current transfer bonus.

Air Canada Aeroplan (Rare)

Historically Amex has offered a small transfer bonus (10% to 20%) to Aeroplan only about once per year.  If you’re interested in transferring from Amex to Aeroplan, this is the time to do so.  Aeroplan also used to frequently bonus transfers from hotel programs, but we haven’t seen those bonuses since 2019.  That approach may have died when Air Canada resumed ownership of the Aeroplan program.

When we will see the next bonus? If the pattern holds, we won’t see another transfer bonus until September 2023.

Air France / KLM Flying Blue (~5 per year)

This is the fifth transfer bonus to Flying Blue this year.  Previous transfer bonuses this year were from Chase (25%), Citi (25%), Amex (25%), and Capital One (20%).  In 2021 there were 5 transfer bonuses. Most of those were 20% or 25%, but Amex had one at 30%.

When we will see the next bonus? If Air France holds to the 5 per year pattern, then this will be the last one this year.  I’d expect the next one to appear in March or April of 2023.

Avianca LifeMiles (Very common)

The current 15% transfer bonus from Amex is the fifth transfer bonus to Avianca LifeMiles this year.  Previous transfer bonuses this year were from: Capital One (20%), Amex (15%), Brex (25%), and Citi (25%).  In 2021 there were 11 transfer bonuses.  Based on history, there’s no need to hurry to get in on the current transfer bonus since another one should appear soon.

When we will see the next bonus? LifeMiles seems to like November transfer bonuses so I think we’ll see the next bonus in November of 2022.

Avios (Common)

Multiple awards programs share a common currency called Avios: British Airways, Aer Lingus, Iberia, and Qatar.  And since it’s possible to move points from one program to another (see this post for details), it makes sense to lump all of the transfer bonuses to any of these programs together.  In other words, when there are transfer bonuses to both British Airways and to Aer Lingus at the same time, we count that as only one transfer bonus.  Similarly, if there’s a transfer bonus to Iberia early in the year and one to Qatar late in the year, those would count as two separate Avios transfer bonuses.

In 2022 we’ve seen five transfer bonuses ranging from 20% to 40%.  In previous years, it was more common to see only 4 transfer bonuses, but the recent addition of Qatar has helped improve our options.

When we will see the next bonus?  In previous years, the only time we saw a transfer bonus later than September was in November 2020 when there was only a single transfer bonus all year.  Assuming that things reset to old patterns, I’ll guess that we won’t have any more this year and that the next will be in March or April 2023.

Hawaiian Airlines (~2 per year)

Before 2021, we saw just one transfer bonus to Hawaiian each year, but we got two 25% bonuses in 2021 and now we’ve seen two 20% bonuses in 2022.  Chance are that we’re done with transfer bonuses to Hawaiian this year.

When we will see the next bonus? In previous years, the first bonus appeared in June twice and in February once.  I’ll guess June 2023.

Qantas (~1 per year?)

In 2019 we saw 6 different transfer bonuses to Qantas.  Since then, there were two in 2020, one in 2021, and one so far in 2022.  It’s possible/likely that Covid interrupted the flow of transfer bonuses.  If so, maybe we’ll see a bunch in 2023.  That’s just pure guesswork, though.

When we will see the next bonus? No idea.

Virgin Atlantic Flying Club 30% Bonus  (~3 per year)

This is the third 30% transfer bonus to Virgin Atlantic this year.  The first was also from Amex and the second was from Chase Ultimate Rewards.  Pre-pandemic, In 2019, we had the same pattern: three 30% transfer bonuses.  That year, two were from Amex and the third was from Citi.  My guess is that we’ll continue to see a similar pattern going forward: two per year from Amex and one per year from another player.

When we will see the next bonus? The only obvious pattern I see in the past is that transfer bonuses are common in May and September.  It’s possible that we’ll see a bonus before May 2023, but if I had to guess I’d say the next one will be then.

Hotels

Choice Privileges 25% Bonus (extremely rare)

This is the first transfer bonus to Choice Privileges we’ve ever recorded.  Will this usher in a new era of Choice transfer bonuses?  Maybe, but with Citi offering 1 to 2 transfers standard, 25% transfer bonuses from Amex aren’t very interesting.

When we will see the next bonus? I don’t know and, unless one comes from Citi (very unlikely), I don’t really care.

Hilton Honors 30% Bonus (2 or 3 per year)

We’ve seen two or three transfer bonuses each year from Amex to Hilton.  Common bonuses include 30%, 40%, and even 50%.  Amex’s standard transfer ratio to Hilton is 1000 to 2000, so a 30% bonus bumps that up to 1000 to 2600.

When we will see the next bonus?  I’m betting another will show up in December.  Since 2018, there has been a December bonus every year except 2021.  I think that we’ll see that return in 2022.

Marriott Bonvoy (~3 per year)

We usually get 3 Marriott transfer bonuses per year (2 from Amex, 1 from Chase) ranging from 20% to 50%.

When we will see the next bonus?  Amex seems to like to offer a transfer bonus in March or April and so I’d guess that the next bonus will appear from Amex in March or April of 2023.

Want to learn more about miles and points? Subscribe to email updates or check out our podcast on your favorite podcast platform.